Let’s look for some value with UFC Vegas 87 early betting for Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the ESPN+ event.
UFC Vegas: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire fight card is available on ESPN+ beginning at 1:30 p.m. ET (10:30 a.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds via DraftKings and as of Monday. Bet on UFC Vegas 87 this week with our DraftKings promo code!
Shamil Gaziev (-148) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+124)
Heavyweights typically don't give us much to work with in the luck department, and this week is no different. The UFC Vegas 87 main event pits divisional mainstay Jairzinho Rozenstruik (7-5 UFC) against prospect Shamil Gaziev (1-0 UFC, 12-0 overall). Only at heavyweight can a 34-year-old be considered a prospect, but here we are.
Rozenstruik has finished all seven of his UFC victories and has been stopped in three of his losses. The only exceptions were clear unanimous decision losses to Ciryl Gane and Curtis Blaydes.
"Bigi Boy" has lost only to fighters currently ranked inside the UFC's top seven at heavyweight – except former champion Francis Ngannou, who exited the promotion as champion.
Which makes this a big step up for Gaziev. He joined the promotion via the Contender Series in September of last year and then picked up a win over Martin Buday in December. UFC officials obviously think highly of him based on their matchmaking – Buday was 4-0 in the UFC before fighting Gaziev – but his overall resume is pretty weak in terms of opponent quality.
If I had to pick a side here, I'd say the market is slightly overconfident in the unproven Gaziev, but not enough that I'm willing to bet on it early in the week. We'll need some tape study and to watch the lines as the week progresses before making any bets here.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Raul Rosas Jr. (-245) vs. Ricky Turcios (+200)
(Editor's note: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcious is no longer part of Saturday's fight card.)
This fight was booked last week at UFC Mexico before an illness from Raul Rosas Jr. led to a last-minute cancellation right at fight time. On Monday and Tuesday, sportsbooks began to open lines for the rebooking.
Rosas closed at a slightly better price than mentioned in this article last time, but my analysis remains mostly unchanged. Here's what I said about the fight then:
Mexican phenom Raul Rosas Jr. rebounded from his first career loss with a dominant performance in September, finishing Terrance Mitchell with strikes from mount in under a minute. He'll be looking to keep that momentum going while fighting on home turf against Ricky Turcios.
The UFC learned their lesson after Rosas' loss to Christian Rodriguez last year, and the company is now giving him a second consecutive soft matchup in Turcios. While Turcios is 2-1 in the UFC, both of those wins were split decisions, and he was taken down a total of 13 times in each of his "wins."
That's the perfect opponent for Rosas – identical UFC record, but massive defensive grappling flaws.
While I don't love saying a fighter at nearly -300 odds is undervalued, I also can't say Rosas doesn't win this fight at least 75% of the time.
I took this line at -260 on Sunday night, and it's continued to grow ever since, so grab it now before it moves even further.
Now rebooked, I'd be comfortable playing this one down to around -270.
Verdict: Raul Rosas Jr. Undervalued
Muhammad Mokaev (-270) vs. Alex Perez (+220)
This booking is somewhat reminiscent of Rosas vs. Turcios. Muhammad Mokaev is a young uber-prospect known for his grappling, and the UFC is bringing him along somewhat slowly.
Alex Perez is the No. 7-ranked contender in the division, but he's coming off consecutive losses.
Just like with Rosas, the promotion made this matchup for a reason. Mokaev has submitted four of his five UFC opponents while dominating the fifth with 12 takedowns in a three-round fight.
Perez has been submitted in the first round in both of his last two losses, and he hasn't won a fight since June 2020.
While it still feels weird saying -270 odds are undervalued, that's the case here. Especially considering the discrepancy between DraftKings and the rest of the market, which has him at -290 or shorter.
Grab that line if you can down to -280. Otherwise, we'll look for alternate angles later in the week.
