Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev at UFC Vegas 87 on Saturday, March 2 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
This weekend the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for an early 11-fight card (1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+) featuring a heavyweight bout between No. 12 contender Jairzinho Rozenstruik and undefeated prospect Shamil Gaziev.
Rozenstruik, a 12-fight UFC octagon veteran, will compete in his sixth main event and five-round contest. His power carries into the championship rounds, and he scored a knockout win over Alistar Overeem with four seconds left in his first main event.
Gaziev, who is 12-0 including a win on the Contender Series and in his UFC debut against Martin Buday, has been past the six-minute mark only once in his professional career – and a handful of times as an amateur. In his only fights that have extended to Round 3, Gaziev lost a unanimous decision as an amateur and won a split decision as a professional.
Gaziez"s gas tank should be a significant concern in his first career five-round fight.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 87 main event and utilize those factors to bet on these heavyweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on Saturday on ESPN+.
Here's my Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Rozenstruik | Gaziev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5-0 | 12-0-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:39 | 4:17 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 257 lbs. | 261 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/17/98 | 2/10/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.8 | 6.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.15 | 0.93 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 73% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.8 |
Gaziev is the taller fighter and the superior wrestler in this matchup; however, his pre-fight favoritism relies on him winning the first round – likely by grappling.
Although the Dagestan native hasn't initiated a takedown attempt in the UFC, he is a well-rounded martial artist. Gaziev offers heavy pressure on the mat and unloads damaging ground and pound from top position.
While his Brazilian jiu-jitsu isn't at the same level as a fighter like Jailton Almeida, who ran through Rozenstruik in three minutes, Gaziev should be able to keep Rozenstruik on the bottom if he can pass his first layer of takedown defense (73% career).
Even Curtis Blaydes (landed three of six takedowns; 6:19 control time) didn't have the easiest time getting Rozenstruik to the ground. However, I expect Shamil to take the fight to the mat early.
From there, Gaziev will look to unload damaging strikes or hunt for a submission. If he does get taken down, Rozenstruik should try to stall for as long as possible – while minimizing damage with Gaziev on top of him.
Gaziev is also a capable – and powerful – boxer, mixing combinations to the head and body. But he hasn't shown much of a kicking game.
There's a possibility that Gaziev, facing the first five-round test and potentially the most powerful opponent of his career, doesn't start as aggressively as we expect. However, playing the range game with Rozenstruik is dangerous. Rozenstruik is the much more powerful kicker. And he'll look to take out Gaziev's base with low kicks – and weaken his subsequent takedown attempts – when these two stand at range.
Rozenstruik has also faced better competition and has proven to have superior cardio, managing his gas tank across more prolonged bouts more consistently than Gaziev. While "Bigi Boi," who hits hard but doesn't throw that often (averages 6.2 strike attempts per minute), isn't typically banking rounds toward winning a decision, the cardio dynamic in this matchup should allow him the opportunity to steal a decision in the back half of this fight.
I'd look to bet Rozenstruik live after Rounds 1 and 2; Gaziev's success should be frontloaded, but if Rozenstruik survives seven to 10 minutes, he will look like the much fresher fighter over the final three rounds and have a chance to rally to a decision or secure a late finish.
And Rozenstruik isn't drawing dead early, either; if Gaziev decides to get in a swinging match, he could get clipped by a slower but more powerful puncher. Some early kicks from Rozenstruik may wipe out Gaviev's ability to land takedowns and limit his overall effectiveness.
If Gaziev doesn't finish this fight or exhaust Rozenstruik with grappling in the first 10 minutes, his game may entirely fall apart.
I like Rozenstruik to survive early, extend the bout, and potentially turn the tide later. I expect a lot of cage-pushing, clinching and grappling in the early going from Gaziev.
Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Pick
In this matchup, I projected Shamil Gaziev as a 60.7% favorite (-155 implied odds).
As a result, I don't see value on either side of the pre-fight moneyline – but I would look to bet on Rozenstruik if his odds move closer to +160 – which, as an update on fight day, are now available at some sportsbooks.
Additionally, look to live bet Rozenstruik after Rounds 1 or 2; he should have superior cardio and begin to close the gap in speed after five to seven minutes.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 15% of the time (+567 implied) – more often than the market suggests (listed +800, or 11.1% implied at Caesars). I'd consider including the latter on round-round tickets.
There's also some correlated value for either fighter to win by decision (projected +998, listed +1400 for Gaziev; projected +1597, listed +1800 for Rozenstruik).
Pre-fight, take the Over 1.5 Rounds (to +140). Rozenstruik should be able to stall in the clinch or stay safe enough on the mat to drain the clock against an opponent of this caliber and experience.
The Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (+165 at WynnBet)
