Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro at UFC Vegas 87 on Saturday, March 2 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The co-headliner for today's low-wattage UFC Fight Night event should at least be entertaining, even if it's not immediately impactful for the division. Like much of the card, it features a promising young fighter in Vitor Petrino in what amounts to a "showcase" fight against a veteran unlikely to find his way to title contention in Tyson Pedro.
The 26-year-old Petrino is 3-0 in the UFC and also had a knockout win on the Contender Series while 32-year-old Pedro is 3-1 since returning from an extended hiatus in 2022.
Petrino needs to pass this test if he's to become the draw he has the potential of being – but oddsmakers don't foresee that as a problem, with Petrino a roughly 3-to-1 favorite. That doesn't mean there's no value elsewhere on this fight, though, which we'll get into below.
Here's my Petrino vs. Pedro prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 87.
Tale of the Tape
| Petrino | Pedro | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-0 | 10-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:50 | 6:24 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205.5 lbs. | 205.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/28/1988 | 9/17/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 61% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.65 | 2.53 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.15 | 0.94 |
| TD Acc | 70% | 36% |
| TD Def | 68% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Tyson Pedro has effectively had two separate UFC careers. The first stint was from 2016-2018 and saw him go 3-3, culminating in a knockout loss to Shogun Rua. Then, a combination of the pandemic and injuries forced him out of competition for more than three years.
Since returning, he's picked up three knockout victories – all in the first round – and a decision loss.
The first-round nature of his wins is notable here because Pedro has never won a fight longer than five minutes. He's a heavy hitter with both hands and feet, but that power comes at a cost to his gas tank.
Pedro has a long reach (79 inches) even for light heavyweight, which he uses well by working from the outside and starting his attacks with leg kicks. Not just setups either; he attacks the legs with the intention of finishing fights before moving up the body with his kicks.
Since moving training camps to City Kickboxing, he's adopted their style, throwing feints to draw out strikes from his opponent, which he attempts to counter. It works for him against slower opponents, but he doesn't have the speed or reflexes of his gym's more heralded fighters. That was on display against Modestas Bukauskas, who routinely beat Pedro to the spot and landed before the counters.
It's hard to judge how Pedro's skill set will play against tougher competition, though.
His opponents since returning are a combined 4-15 in the UFC octagon with three of those wins from Bukauskas, who beat Pedro.
Which is why this feels like a fight put together to "push" Petrino to the divisional rankings. He's a perfect 10-0 as a pro with four wins coming under the UFC banner.
Petrino shares two opponents in common with Pedro. He knocked out Bukauskas and won a decision over Anton "The Pleasure Man" Turkalj, whom Pedro knocked out.
The fight against Bukauskas demonstrated Petrino's edges here. Rather than wait on Bukauskas, Petrino pressed forward and initiated. While he ate some shots along the way, the more impactful strikes came from the Brazilian.
Petrino's lack of defensive responsibility could come into play against Pedro, though. Pedro is by far the hardest hitter he's faced for the promotion
Petrino is a well-rounded overall fighter, trading strikes when he feels he has the edge, but with the ability to take down opponents when that's easier. His takedowns are pure force, typically coming via big slams. He also looks to counter kicks from his opponents with takedowns, which could serve him well against Pedro.
Cardio could be a big edge for Petrino as well. He's finished two of his UFC/Contender Series wins in the second round and one in the third, plus a dominant decision win over Turkalj in which he looked great down the stretch.
Petrino vs. Pedro Pick
Petrino's physical edges and well-rounded ability make him a justifiable 3-to-1 favorite in this spot. Still, this is something of a step up in competition for the prospect, and I'm typically not in the business of laying that kind of juice on UFC fights.
There are a couple ways I could see this one going. Pedro's best chance is early while he still has his power and Petrino hasn't hit his stride. Petrino was dropped in the first round of his Contender fight, and he ate some hard shots in other spots as well. While his chin has held up so far, it might not forever.
For that reason, a sprinkle on Pedro by first-round knockout at +1300 is a good hedge for any Petrino position, and I'm taking it for 0.1 units.
On the Petrino side, he has multiple paths to victory. My initial read was Petrino by submission – since he tends to grapple strikers and vise versa – at +400 odds. While I still like that play, we can do better.
Given the likely cardio edge, I'm playing Petrino in Round 2 at +460 and Round 3 at +850 for a quarter unit each. He should be able to finish a tired Pedro after the opening frame – and Pedro's BJJ black belt should get him through one round even if the fight hits the mat early.
The Picks: Petrino in Round 2 (+460 at FanDuel, 0.25u) | Petrino in Round 3 (+850 at FanDuel, 0.25u) | Pedro by Round 1 KO (+1300 at FanDuel, 0.1u)
