Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura Pick
Here's our Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura pick for UFC Vegas 88 on Saturday, March 16 – with our expert prediction.
For a brief moment, it looked like we were going to have a shooey-drinking heavyweight champion. Tai Tuivasa had an incredible three-year run from 2020-2022 with five straight knockout wins, including one over fellow entertaining brawler Derrick Lewis.
That run culminated in what was effectively a No. 1 contender's fight against former interim champion Ciryl Gane. Tuivasa came dangerously close to defeating the more technical Gane, dropping him in the second round before succumbing to body shots in Round 3.
It's been all downhill since then for "Bam Bam" with consecutive stoppage losses to top-ranked heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Sergei Pavlovich.
It seems like Tuivasa's days of being in the title picture are well behind him. He has a chance to stay relevant as a gatekeeper to the top 10 as he puts his No. 9 ranking on the line against Marcin Tybura.
Still just 30, Tuivasa needs a win badly to get back on track. Can he do it against the solid veteran Tybura?
Tale of the Tape
| Tuivasa | Tybura | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-6 | 24-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:54 | 12:02 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 265.5 lbs. | 247 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1993 | 11/9/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.98 | 3.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.98 | 3.55 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 33% |
| TD Def | 54% | 79% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.1 |
We pretty much know what we're going to get when Tai Tuivasa is on the card. A wild brawler, the Samoan shows little to no interest in defense, exchanging strikes with some of the heaviest hitters in the division and often coming out on top.
He has massive power in his hands, averaging 1.24 knockdowns per 15 minutes of cage time. Crucially for his style, he also has – or had – a granite chin. Tuivasa has taken the best shots from fighters like Derrick Lewis and Cyril Gane while remaining conscious. Gane threw everything but the kitchen sink at Tuivasa's chin, and finally felled him by damaging the body.
The crucial question for this fight – and moving forward – is the status of that chin. Sergei Pavlovich dropped him twice in the opening minute, and Alexander Volkov sat him down following that. Of course, Pavlovich not finishing him with the first knockdown could be a good sign; all five of Pavlovich's other knockdowns finished the fight.
The Volkov knockdown is more concerning, though. Volkov isn't the power striker that Pavlovich or Gane are. Nor was the short right hand that sat Tuivasa down particularly powerful looking.
While Tuivasa is most known for his brawling, to his credit he's an adept leg-kicker, which he uses to chop away at taller opponents.
He also mixes in short elbows once he breaks through the range of his opponents, finishing Lewis with one. His cardio is relatively impressive for a man of his size and shape, and he stayed competitive into the third round against Gane.
This is a step-down in competition for Tuivasa against Tybura, both literally and figuratively. Tybura has "only" three inches in reach on Tuivasa while the three fighters to defeat Tuivasa on this skid had an edge of at least five.
Tybura will also be at an athleticism disadvantage here. The Polish heavyweight has just two finishes in his last seven wins, and his power is below average by heavyweight standards. The well-rounded Tybura should be the better technician in all aspects, though.
Tybura is a solid grappler, averaging about half a takedown per round in the UFC. He's also a solid striker, with a slightly positive striking differential across 18 UFC fights.
This gives him the ability to beat his opponents where they're bad – without a dominant skill of his own. That edge likely lies in the grappling against Tuivasa, who's suffered two submission losses in the UFC despite typically being paired with strikers.
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Tuivasa vs. Tybura Pick
This bout was originally scheduled for UFC 298 before being moved to this main event at the UFC Apex center in Las Vegas. That means a rare small-cage appearance for Tuivasa, who's exclusively fought in the larger pay-per-view cage in his UFC run.
That's an underrated factor here, as it could favor either man depending on your view. On one hand, the shorter Tuivasa has less ground to cover when pursuing Tybura, which plays well to his brawling style. On the other hand, Tybura should have plenty of opportunities for takedowns, as the smaller cage forces closer quarters.
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I tend to fall into the former camp. Tuivasa is typically the fighter pressing forward and closing distance in his fights, even against opponents who want to wrestle. I'm also not especially concerned about Tuivasa's chin here. Tybura's knockdown rate of 0.07 per 15 minutes is well below the UFC average regardless of weight class. With a significant sample size, if Tybura had big power, we would've seen it by now.
It requires a slight leap of faith to believe Tuivasa can withstand the grappling, especially following his domination on the ground by Volkov. However, he's had plenty of time to work on that aspect of his game, and Tybura is far less of a threat on the ground than Volkov.
I'm riding with Tuivasa to snap his losing skid – on his 31st birthday! – at -114 odds at FanDuel. You could also save about 15 cents of juice and bet on Tuivasa by KO at +100, his overwhelmingly likely method of victory. However, given the minimal price difference, I prefer his moneyline.
The Pick: Tai Tuivasa (-114 at FanDuel)
