Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas Odds
Here's our Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas pick for UFC Vegas 89 on Saturday, March 23 – with our expert prediction for the UFC main event.
On Saturday the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for an important headliner in the women's flyweight division between No. 8-ranked UFC contender Amanda Ribas and No. 8 women's pound-for-pound ranked Rose Namajunas.
Namajunas, a former two-time 115-pound strawweight champion, will compete for the second time since moving up to the 125-pound flyweight last year, dropping a decision to future title contender Manon Fiorot in September. Saturday's headliner will mark the sixth five-round fight of her professional career.
Ribas is 2-2 as a flyweight and is also ranked No. 7 in the strawweight division. This is her first UFC main event, and she's never seen the fourth round in her professional career.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 89 main event and utilize those factors to bet on these flyweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 12:25 a.m. ET early Sunday morning (9:25 p.m. PT on Saturday night) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Ribas | Namajunas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 12-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:18 | 13:42 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 125.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/26/1993 | 6/29/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.33 | 3.53 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.99 | 1.49 |
| TD Acc | 51% | 48% |
| TD Def | 87% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.6 |
In this matchup, Amanda Ribas has most of the submission grappling or dominant control grappling upside while Namajunas is the more educated and technical striker.
Namajunas has shown poor takedown defense throughout her UFC career (60%) and an even more concerning tendency to accept the bottom position, close guard and wait out rounds from her back after permitting takedowns. While she seems more susceptible to double- or single-leg takedowns – rather than Ribas's judo techniques – if this fight hits the mat, I expect Ribas to end up on top and threaten submissions or land damage from top position.
Statistically, Ribas has spent 39% of her UFC bout time grappling or in the clinch compared to 27% for Namajunas. She has controlled position in 80% of those minutes, compared to 71% for Namajunas.
Ribas attempts 2.1 takedowns per round, landing at a 52% clip. Rose has shown a similarly efficient ability to mix things up (1.4 takedown attempts per round, 49% accuracy), but she should look to counter-wrestle and keep this fight standing.
On the feet, Namajunas is the more dangerous striker and the more durable fighter. She should land more head strikes with superior boxing abilities compared to Ribas, who will primarily kick Rose to the legs and body. Still, Ribas is the more efficient striker regarding volume (+2.6 differential per minute, compared to +0.2 for Namajunas) and could pull ahead on output across a 25-minute fight.
While Ribas has never seen the championship rounds – and Namajunas should be more comfortable with the pomp and circumstance – Ribas typically lets her output build toward the end of her three-round fights. She usually comes on strongest closer to the final bell, finishing her most recent opponent in the final 90 seconds of their matchup:
Conversely, Namajunas typically has frontloaded success before her matchups play closer to 50/50 down the stretch when she tires.
With a pair of former strawweights fighting up a division at 125, I'm not particularly concerned with the cardio for either fighter. Still, while I'd generally be skeptical of a fighter's ability to compete in the fourth and fifth rounds when they haven't previously shown it, I'm less concerned about Ribas – against an opponent with mediocre cardio – than I have been in other main events this year involving heavier fighters, like Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer, or Shamil Gaziev vs. Jairzhinho Rozenstruik.
There are concerns about Namajunas' mental state and desire to fight, especially following her strange performance against Carla Esparza. Still, I thought Namajunas fought bravely in her loss to Fiorot, rallying to win the third round despite apparently breaking her hand in the opening frame.
If this fight stays standing for lengthy stretches, Namajunas should land the more damaging strikes, which may be enough to sway the judges, even if Ribas pulls ahead on volume.
I'm also slightly concerned about Ribas's willingness to grapple proactively. She has talked about wanting to compete for a "BMF" title in the future. And she may be feeling more confident than ever in her striking after scoring her first UFC knockout.
Still, I must take the fighter with the grappling upside and superior striking volume upside at plus money.
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Ribas vs. Namajunas Pick
In this matchup, I projected Rose Namajunas as a 62% favorite (-163 implied odds). As a result, I would bet Amanda Ribas at +170 (37% implied) or better, a 1% edge over my projected line.
I also like this fight to reach a decision 52% of the time (-108 implied) – below the divisional average for women's flyweight (61.2%). And with most finishes coming earlier in bouts, there shouldn't be a significant adjustment for the percentage in five-round bouts, mainly because fighters who make main events are typically more challenging to finish than an average prelim fighter.
The betting market is offering you plus money on the Over 4.5 rounds or the Fight to Reach a Decision, and I'm inclined to play that distance prop at any plus-money price.
As a result, I also showed value on Ribas to win by decision (projected +338, listed +460), which I'll likely use as a round-robin piece.
The Picks:
- Amanda Ribas (+180, 0.5u) at FanDuel
- Fight Goes to Decision (+135, 0.25u) at Caesars Sportsbook
