Justin Tafa vs. Karl Williams Odds
Here's our Justin Tafa vs. Karl Williams pick for UFC Vegas 89 on Saturday, March 23 – with our expert prediction.
Saturday's UFC co-headliner features an impromptu heavyweight showdown between Justin Tafa and Karl Williams.
Initially slated to face Junior Tafa (who ended up stepping in for his brother last month at UFC 298), Williams will now experience the recent phenomenon known as "the Tafa shuffle."
Justin, who was forced to withdraw from his fight with Marcos Rogerio de due to injury, will now be repaying his brother – as well as the promotion – by keeping this booking with Williams alive.
Here's my Tafa vs. Williams breakdown for f Saturday's UFC event.
Tale of the Tape
| Tafa | Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 4:52 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 264.5 lbs. | 246.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/6/1990 | 12/13/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.80 | 5.93 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.00 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Despite the change of opponents, the stylistic dynamic of this matchup remains firmly intact.
Tafa, who is the superior striker, should have a solid edge whenever these two are standing.
A powerful Samoan southpaw, Tafa brings a unique look to the heavyweight landscape when it comes to his striking stance. From left high kicks to crosses, Tafa carries all the traditional weapons that southpaws should never leave home without.
However, it's Tafa's counter shots that seem to quietly get the job done for the 30-year-old.
Whether he's hitting his patent check hook or catching opponents on a level change with an uppercut, Tafa poses some real threats that Williams must be aware of.
Although Williams has been making a concerted effort to shore up his striking skills, takedowns are an undeniable key to the 34-year-old's game.
Possessing an explosive shot in open space, Williams is not shy about running through his opposition.
Having a solid feel for level changes, Williams does well when it comes to taking his feet with him when driving in on double legs. And once Williams can ground his opposition, he displays decent instincts regarding riding positions and opportunities to strike.
Williams appears to still be working out his pacing given his style and size for the division, but being one of the few men at heavyweight who can actually wrestle should serve him well on paper.
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Tafa vs. Williams Pick
The oddsmakers opened the American as the favorite, listing Williams -195 and Tafa +155 as of this writing.
Despite not disagreeing with Williams being favored to win, I find myself leaning toward the underdog in this spot.
The smaller octagon will certainly favor Williams' wrestling sensibilities from a stylistic standpoint; I'm just not sure that his game has developed enough to ensure success (even if he can score takedowns).
Williams spent this past camp in my backyard of Xtreme Couture, so I'll definitely leave some room to be surprised this Saturday regarding any potential improvements. That said, striking with someone like Tafa is not likely in the game plan for Williams considering his propensity to eat leg kicks and checking hooks.
Add in Tafa's knack for establishing whizzers and circling off the cage, and I'll take a flier on his superior striking and size to give his former light-heavyweight foe his first UFC loss.
Given that this fight likely comes down to two possible outcomes, I suggest shopping for decision props if you like the Williams (which can currently be found at +190 via FanDuel) or knockout props if you're riding with the Tafa gang.
My official pick is Tafa by second-round knockout.
The Pick: Justin Tafa by KO, TKO or DQ (+240 at BetRivers)
