Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis Odds
Here's our Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis pick for the UFC Vegas 90 main event on Saturday, April 6 – with our expert prediction.
On Saturday on ESPN+, the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for a rematch in the middleweight division between No. 6-ranked contender Brendan Allen and No. 14 Chris Curtis.
The pair fought at the Apex in December 2021 with Curtis cashing as high as +290 on the moneyline. "The Action Man" won the first round unanimously on all three scorecards, wobbled Allen in the second round with a body-head combination, and ultimately finished his opponent against the cage.
Curtis is 3-2 (with one no-contest) since that first fight, including a knockout win over rising contender Joaquin Buckley. Allen is on a 6-0 run since that loss, finishing five of his opponents.
Neither fighter has seen the championship rounds in the UFC, but both men have five-round experience from their regional days.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 90 main event and utilize those factors to bet on these middleweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 8:25 p.m. ET (5:25 p.m. PT) on Saturday on ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Allen | Curtis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-5 | 31-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:40 | 10:59 |
| Height | 6'2" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 186 pounds | 186 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/28/1995 | 7/15/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.87 | 5.96 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.60 | 6.58 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.36 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 0% |
| TD Def | 58% | 92% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.0 |
While both fighters have the same reach, Allen is the taller, more natural middleweight and looked a weight class larger in the first fight.
Allen is the superior kicker, and I'd expect him to employ more of an outside-distance striking game plan instead of crashing the pocket and boxing with Curtis, as he did in the first matchup.
Allen landed powerful kicks to all three levels, but he continually had his head snapped back by Curtis' punches when entering the pocket.
Curtis is the better technical boxer, the more powerful puncher, and likely the more durable athlete. He's also much more defensively sound.
Allen defends strikes at only a 46% rate. He has tall-man defensive tendencies, doesn't move his head off the center line, and provides bad optics for the judges, shaking his head at opponents to indicate "no" every time he's hit cleanly.
Still, Allen possesses all of the offensive grappling upside in this fight. He landed a takedown and took Curtis' back in the subsequent scramble in Round 1 and pulled guard into a heel hook at the end of the same round. Still, Curtis is an excellent anti-grappler (career 92% takedown defense), and he ended up on top of Allen to finish out that opening frame, securing the round on all three judges' scorecards.
Allen is the more well-rounded offensive fighter, but he's prone to fight-IQ mistakes – like ending that first round on the bottom or stepping back into the pocket to trade hooks with Curtis after chewing him up with kicks from range to start Round 2.
While Allen is undefeated since the first matchup, his strength of schedule isn't awe-inspiring. He was out-grappled by Jacob Malkoun (taken down seven times); he defeated one-dimensional opponents in Sam Alvey, Paul Craig and Bruno Silva; and he continued to look worse in each subsequent performance.
His win over Andre Muniz, a fellow grappler, has aged well – but Allen hasn't faced any opponent with Curtis' combination of striking or anti-grappling since their first fight.
Still, while Allen's recent form doesn't seem as improved to me personally as it might on paper, I haven't been particularly impressed with Curtis' recent form, either. Nassourdine Imavov took him down multiple times and spent more than two minutes in control positions. Curtis subsequently looked flat on the feet in his most recent win over Marc-Andre Barriault while absorbing 122 strikes.
"The Action Man" has taken a lot of damage over his 41-fight professional career – and he's constantly sparring in the gym. He's eight years older than Allen, and the athletic cliff will come for Curtis at some point if it hasn't already.
As a result, while I like this matchup for Curtis stylistically – since the dynamic that led to 50/50 exchanges in their first fight still exists – I do think that Allen will look a touch faster and better technically than he did in the first bout. And if Allen has moderately more success keeping Curtis down, that should justify his favoritism.
Unless he's shooting for a takedown, I'd expect Allen to employ an outside kickboxing game plan in this matchup, similar to Jack Hermansson's win over Curtis. However, from a fight IQ perspective, I don't trust Allen to stay disciplined and avoid dangerous exchanges for 25 minutes. And Curtis consistently hurts opponents who hang in the pocket with him for too long.
This bout should mostly be a 50/50 striking matchup with Allen potentially landing more volume and mixing in some grappling.
At the same time, Curtis should land the more impactful punches to the body and head, and the latter typically scores better with judges.
Allen vs. Curtis Pick
In this fight, I projected Chris Curtis as a 37.7% underdog (+165 implied odds). I would look to bet his moneyline at +180 (35.7% implied) or better, but I would prefer to wait for the market to move closer to +200.
I don't see value concerning the total; I expect the fight to end inside the distance 67% of the time (-202 implied odds), in line with the betting market (+160 Yes, -210 No).
Moreover, I don't see value in any winning-method or round props.
Allen may have a slight cardio advantage; Curtis took this fight on short notice in place of Marvin Vettori. Still, Curtis is constantly in camp and sparring at his gym, so I doubt the 25 minutes will cause him any issues.
Considering the closing odds for the first fight had Allen as high as -375 (78.9% implied), I'll wait to see if the market ticks his way and we get a better price on Curtis. However, the price is within actionable range at current levels.
The Pick: Chris Curtis (+180 or better; wait for +200)
