Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez Odds
Here's our Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez pick with a UFC Vegas 91 prediction for the main event on Saturday, April 27
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday for an important main event in the men's flyweight division between No. 5-ranked UFC contender Matheus Nicolau and No. 8-ranked Alex Perez.
Perez is taking the bout on short notice in place of Manel Kape. After three consecutive losses, the former title challenger has tumbled down the 125-pound rankings. Still, Perez was highly competitive against surging prospect Mohammad Mokaev in March – his first fight since July 2022 and fifth since 2019 (amid 13 canceled bouts over the same span).
Perez has struggled to make the flyweight limit but hasn't had issues for his past two bouts, and he may look improved in his second fight after a layoff.
Nicolau was originally slated as the "B side" of this fight against Kape. He was booked for a main event slot following a knockout loss to Brandon Royval last March so that Kape could avenge his split-decision loss to Nicolau in 2021.
Nicolau closed around +125 in the fight against Kape, opened +160 for the rematch, and was a consensus +218 underdog (31.5% implied) when that fight was canceled.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 91 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Nicolau vs. Perez, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET (6:25 p.m. PT) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Nicolau | Perez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4-1 | 24-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:14 | 6:38 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/6/1993 | 3/21/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.66 | 4.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.14 | 3.14 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.48 | 2.26 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 44% |
| TD Def | 93% | 82% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Perez is the bigger and stronger athlete while Nicolau has the speed advantage and is a bit lighter on his feet.
I'm uncertain as to which fighter has superior cardio. Nicolau has never seen a fourth round in his professional career but prefers to work off the back foot and fight at a moderate tempo.
He hasn't shown any issues in three-round fights, but he hasn't faced someone who can push a high pace. And, as I mentioned, he's a rare main-event fighter coming off of a first-round knockout loss.
Perez has seen only one fight go to the championship rounds (a regional title bout he won in 2015) but comes from a wrestling background, which traditionally leads to better cardio. Taking this fight on short notice is a red flag, but I do like that he got a high-paced, 15-minute fight under his belt in early March – when he didn't take much damage. It was a good tuneup, and Perez could have won if he had let his hands go slightly more in the third round.
Moreover, Perez showed solid submission defense in that fight against Mokaev; defensive jiu-jitsu has often been a glaring weakness in an otherwise well-rounded skillset.
Perez is the better wrestler in this matchup and can likely dictate where the fight takes place. That said, Nicolau has shown solid takedown defense (defending 14 of 15 attempts; Tim Elliott is the only fighter to take him down), and Perez would like to avoid a jiu-jitsu match against a superior grappler.
Perez will apply pressure in the small cage. Instead of backing up and allowing Nicolau to gain ground between exchanges, I'd look for Perez to use his strength – and the small walls of the APEX – to cage-push his opponent and stall for stretches to drain time off the clock in each round.
Nicolau is highly comfortable playing the matador role – using his footwork, speed and agility to counter-strike and angle himself away from Perez's pressure. However, his style is more effective when threatening takedowns (attempts 1.4 per round, 45% accuracy in the UFC).
Nicolau may get on top in this fight. Still, Perez is a very adept scrambler – if he can protect against submissions – and it's difficult for a less physical flyweight like Nicolau to hold down a stronger opponent than it might be at heavier weight classes.
Neither fighter tends to separate on volume. Nicolau is a more technical martial artist. However, Perez is the more efficient (+0.9 to +0.5 strike differential per minute) and active (5.1 to 4.1 landed per minute) striker at distance across their respective UFC careers.
Add in Perez's forward pressure, and there could be some wonky scorecards in this goes the distance.
Nicolau vs. Perez Pick
I projected Alex Perez as a 42.2% underdog (+137 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would look to bet his moneyline at about +150 (40% implied) or better.
I also projected this bout to reach a decision 54% of the time (-116 implied odds) – right in line with the flyweight divisional average.
I don't see either fighter as a particularly potent finisher for the division, but this fight is still in the Apex, where we've previously noted roughly a 12% increase in finish rate.
Bet the Over 4.5 Rounds at plus money, or the Over 3.5 Rounds to -125. I'd tell you to take the distance prop at slightly better odds – but after the Holloway knockout at UFC 300 (and holding an Inside the Distance ticket, as opposed to the Under 4.5 Rounds) – I'd never want to be on the wrong side of one of those beats.
Lastly, I like either Nicolau (projected +188, listed +275 at BetMGM) or Perez to win by decision (projected +427, listed +550 at Parx).
Given the correlation between my analysis and my projections, I'd bet Perez by decision for small stakes or as a round-robin selection.
The Picks: Alex Perez (+155 at Caesars) | Over 3.5 Rounds (-125 at Caesars) | Over 4.5 Rounds (+110 at Caesars)
