Check out our favorite UFC picks with long-shot prop bets for Saturday's UFC Vegas 91: Nicolau vs. Perez event.
The MMA Prop Squad is firing on all cylinders, and we're back with more expert UFC props. Lifetime, we have tallied +32.0 units and +8.7% ROI per bet, including +23.9 units and a +33.7% ROI in 2024.
UFC Vegas 91 takes place on today at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card kicks off on ESPN2 at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT), and the main card then kicks off on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET. The event is also fully available on ESPN+.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*UFC matchup odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 91 with our FanDuel promo code.
UFC Prop Bets & Picks
Dan Tom: Victor Henry in Round 3 (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a potential "hot round" in a preliminary bout between Victor Henry (-420) and Rani Yahya (+330).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round finishers with suspect gas tanks vs. durable, building fighters who pick up late.
Although I'm a huge fan of Yahya (and don't blame anyone for taking a stab at either his moneyline or submission prop given the value), he typically seems to be hanging on by a thread come Round 3 – a trend that has grown only stronger with age.
Henry is not exactly a potent puncher on the feet, per se, but the American is a building fighter who tends to come on strong down the stretch.
Couple that with the fact that Yahya is a 39-year-old who has fought only once in the past three years, and I'll happily take a small shot on Henry to win in Round 3.
The Pick: Victor Henry in Round 3 (+900 at Betway & Betred)
Billy Ward: Rani Yahya Submission (+800)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
I truly don’t get this line on Rani Yahya. He’s a former ADCC – the Olympics of no-gi grappling – world champion with solid wrestling (2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC). Of his 28 professional MMA victories, 21 have come via submission.
Yet somehow, less than half of his roughly 23% win equity (based on his +340 line at FanDuel) is composed of submissions? I’m not buying it.
The 39-year-old Yahya isn’t likely to win here. He’s not a great striker, and he's clearly past his athletic peak. However, one thing that doesn’t fade is submission skills. He’s a far better technical grappler than Victor Henry, his opponent this weekend.
Henry has been taken down in each of his four UFC fights, largely thanks to a dynamic striking style that invites his opponents to wrestle. Henry’s not a bad grappler by any stretch – but he’s not ADCC-championship level either.
Besides, with his 37th birthday next month, Henry is no spring chicken himself. This is less "old dog being fed to a prospect" and more "gentleman of a certain age" squaring off.
While I have some slight interest in Yahya’s moneyline at +340, the real value is in his submission prop. If he does win, that’s almost certainly how it happens.
The Pick: Rani Yahya Submission (+800 at DraftKings)
Clint MacLean: Uros Medic by Submission (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Tim Means gives up his neck. It is that simple. He is a 40-years-old and an absolute legend, but he has a really bad habit of sticking his neck into his opponents' chokes and presenting easy opportunities to finish.
Uros Medic (-300) is not known for his grappling, but when you donate your air tube in an MMA fight, it's just not that hard to grab onto it and squeeze. Means (+245) also tends to go to war in his fights. Once hurt, he shoots takedowns, and a rocked opponent is the easiest to submit.
I fully expect Medic to land the bigger shots in this fight, and when Means eventually gets hurt, he will panic and shoot.
Medic might finish with his hands, but at this number, I have to take the shot.
The Pick: Uros Medic by Submission (+900 at Betfred & Hard Rock)
Bryan Fonseca: Karine Silva by Round 1 KO (+850) | Silva by Round 2 KO (+1700)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
I don't love betting against Ariane Lipski, winner of three straight fights who's now an underdog, but this is a long-shot spot I'm eyeing for the UFC's return after a week off.
Lipski (+130) is on a great run, but she's still a slight underdog against Karine Silva (-154), who can crack. And why does that matter? Lipski's been knocked out four times, three coming in November 2020, June 2021 and August 2022 – and all in the UFC.
That's very recent!
The most recent was in Round 1, and the former two each came in Round 2. She was also knocked out in the first round 10 years ago.
Silva's 3-0 in the UFC, all by submission, and also tapped someone out at a Contender Series event. Silva's nine KOs were all pre-UFC. However, she has shown in the UFC that she's an effective striker, one capable of adding another KO defeat to Lipski's record.
The Picks: Karine Silva by Round 1 KO (+850 at FanDuel) | Silva by Round 2 KO (+1700 at FanDuel)
