Check out our UFC picks for UFC Vegas 93 with our favorite long-shot UFC prop bets for Saturday, June 15.
UFC Vegas 93 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire event is available on ESPN2 and ESPN+ beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT).
It's the deepest or most star-studded card, but the MMA Prop Squad has spotted some value with UFC props for tonight.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +16.8 units and a +4.2% ROI per bet during two years of action.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
(UFC Vegas 93 odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 93 with our Caesars promo code.)
UFC Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Dan Tom: Hot Round for Nate Maness
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a "hot round" in a preliminary card attraction between Nate Maness (-650) and Jimmy Flick (+460).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round finishers with suspect-staying power vs. durable fighters who have proven they can survive some serious storms.
Not only has Maness shown that he can come back from sustaining a broken jaw early in a fight in which he's already the underdog, but Flick has a notorious history of fading as he approaches the five-minute mark of fights.
Add in the fact that nearly half of Maness' finishes come in Round 2, and I can't help but take a big plus-money angle on the otherwise 6-1 favorite.
You can technically split a unit between Maness to win in both Rounds 2 and 3 and still turn some profit (as I admittedly sprinkled small on a third-round flier), but Flick has seen the third frame in only seven of his 25 listed fights, so plan accordingly.
The Pick: Nate Maness in Roune 2 (+430 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Miles Johns to Change the Guard
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Douglas Silva de Andrade is a UFC veteran who's made a career of being more explosive and durable than his opponents. But he's also 38 now, and we are seeing the signs that Father Time is taking over.
In his last fight, Silva de Andrade got floored and rocked by Cody Stamann, which is something no fighter in the UFC should have on his resume.
Silva de Andrade (+122) now fights Miles Johns (-145). John is a fighter whom I have been on the wrong side of several times, but he has patched up his cardio issues and is looking better than ever.
I believe this is a changing-of-the-guard kind of fight. Johns has the power to hurt Silva de Andrade in his old age, and if Stamann is rocking you, then Miles can put you down for good.
(Although multiple sportsbooks are offering "Johns by KO/TKO" at +500, be sure to look for one that also includes disqualification as a win condition. ESPN BET and DraftKings, for example, have "Johns by KO/TKO/DQ" at +500.)
The Pick: Miles Johns by KO/TKO/DQ (+500 at ESPN BET)
Tony Sartori: KO Option #1 for Main Event
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main event features a flyweight bout between Alex Perez (+185) and Tatsuro Taira (-225). I agree that Taira should be favored, but I also think that -200 is too long and the value in this fight is on the No. 5-ranked contender in the division.
Yes, Perez has lost three of his past four fights. But look who those losses have come against:
- Muhammad Mokaev: N0. 6-ranked UFC contender
- Alexandre Pantoja: Current UFC champion
- Deiveson Figueiredo: One of the greatest flyweights of all time
Meanwhile, his win (and most recent fight) was a knockout over Matheus Nicolau, the current No. 8-ranked contender. Every single one of those fights came against a level of competition superior than Taira, at least at the present moment.
Yes, Taira is 15-0, but he has never had a fight even close to that level of competition at the flyweight level. This is a big step up for Taira, and we will play it simply.
If he is the level of prospect most think that he is, then he will probably win once again. However, the momentum could, at the same time, easily be halted by a guy who is a proven title contender at 125 pounds.
Taira could be a title contender, but he also could not be a title contender (yet), and that is why I believe the value in this fight lies with the proven guy at +168. On top of that, Perez simply possesses one-touch power (apologies to Nicolau).
While Taira has never lost, Edgar Chairez knocked him down. And if Chairez can daze Taira, then Perez absolutely can knock him out.
The Pick: Alex Perez by KO/TKO/DQ (+440 at FanDuel)
Liam Heslin: KO Option #2 for Main Event
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
Above, my colleague Tony Sartori made a compelling case for Alex Perez to win by knockout in the main event.
Now, allow me to make the case for his opponent, Tatsuro Taira, to win by KO.
Quite simply, at +850, we've just got too much value on a fighter with underrated KO equity in this main event.
The sportsbooks haven't accurately priced Taira's ability to stop a fight with strikes. While oddsmakers believe Taira's takedown ability and control game can get him a submission (+138 odds to do), they're sleeping on the ground-and-pound possibility that the Japanese fighter brings to the cage.
Taira's underrated striking and power also translate to the mat. Perez isn't easy to finish (his lone KO loss was to Joseph Benavidez in 2018), but at 32, he's creeping closer to that age when a long-tested chin can start to give out.
More importantly, some of the sharper sportsbooks and offshores have this prop bet lined as short as +525, so we're also getting a great offer via BetRivers at +850.
One day, sportsbooks will accurately price in Taira's KO equity. Until then, I'll keep riding that train until they wise up.
The Pick: Tatsuro Taira by KO/TKO/DQ (+850 at BetRivers)
