Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba Odds
| 10:30 p.m. ET | |
Here's the latest on the Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba odds for Saturday, July 20, with our expert UFC Vegas 94 prediction and pick for the main event.
Tonight the UFC will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for an important main event in the women's 115-pound strawweight division with No. 3-ranked UFC contender and former title challenger Amanda Lemos against No. 5-ranked Virna Jandiroba.
The 37-year-old Lemos has an 8-3 record in the promotion and bounced back from her title fight loss to Zhang Weili at UFC 292 with a win over MacKenzie Dern at UFC 298. Saturday will mark her third career main event or five-round fight, but Lemos has seen the championship rounds only once.
Jandiroba, 36, enters on a three-fight winning streak with a 6-3 promotional record. While Saturday marks her first UFC main event spot, Jandiroba has a five-round title-winning performance from Invicta FC on her resume – over current UFC fighter Mizuki Inoue – in which Virna pushed a heavy grappling pace to the final bell.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 94 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Lemos and Jandiroba, who should make their cage walks at approximately 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Lemos | Jandiroba | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3-1 | 20-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:42 | 12:00 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 116 lbs. | 115.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 64" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/22/1987 | 5/30/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.43 | 2.30 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.21 | 2.96 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.98 | 2.36 |
| TD Acc | 63% | 36% |
| TD Def | 57% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 1.2 |
Amanda Lemos is a dangerous and dynamic striker, but she offers limited offensive output and sketchy cardio – which is unlikely to improve in her late 30s. Moreover, Lemos has shown a willingness to accept takedowns (57% defense) and fight off her back, particularly as she tires.
At the outset, Lemos should be the bigger and stronger athlete (1" advantage in both height and reach, but significantly more power), and she should be able to win the distance striking exchanges against Jandiroba (+0.5 to -0.9 significant strike differential per minute), who is careful defensively (57% striking defense) but lacks the offensive technique (38% accuracy) or pop to gain her opponent's respect on the feet.
Still, Jandiroba possesses all of the grappling upside in this fight – and she should benefit from the smaller confines of the Apex – where she'll find it easier to close the distance and wrestle for the duration (averages 4.6 takedown attempts per round, 36% accuracy).
Lemos has lethal offensive submission skills but has shown vulnerability in her defensive wrestling and grappling. Jandiroba isn't as strong as current champion Zhang Weili – who landed six of seven takedowns and controlled Lemos for 16:07 (nearly 65%) of their title bout – but she is a superior technician on the mat and is able to control her grounded opponents incredibly well compared to other strawweights.
If Jandiroba can take Lemos down early, when her opponent is otherwise most dangerous, Jandiroba's chances should increase. Virna has never been finished and excels at implementing her game plan against opponents – even when physically disadvantaged. Moreover, she showed a solid gas tank in her lone championship-round appearance, and even though that fight was six years ago, I prefer her stamina to Lemos – who consistently fades by the 12-minute mark of her fights and struggles in deeper waters.
Still, a fresh Lemos should land significantly more noticeable damage – the primary scoring criteria – and I'd expect Lemos to be up 2-0 or tied 1-1 after 10 minutes, at worst.
As a result, I'd look to live bet Jandiroba after Round 2, when you should get a better price than her pre-fight moneyline. As Lemos tires, I expect Jandiroba's style to be more effective in the later rounds.
Lemos vs. Jandiroba Pick
I projected Virna Jandiroba as a -141 favorite (58.6% implied) in this matchup and would place a small bet on her moneyline pre-fight up to -130 (56.5% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my projected price.
I'd wait to add more live on Jandiroba anytime after Round 2; you should find a better price than her prefight moneyline as she comes into a more significant portion of her win equity.
I projected this fight to reach a decision 49% of the time (+105 implied odds), significantly below the UFC strawweight average of 66.3% (-197 implied odds). Compared to that average rate, this fight is five rounds at the Apex (finish rates roughly 12% higher than average) and a relatively binary striker vs. grappler matchup.
Still, the adjustment seems like an overcorrection relative to the durability and respective skill sets of these top-five contenders.
I prefer the Over 3.5 (-108) to the Goes to Decision (+150) prop; I would consider betting those to -130 and +130, respectively.
I show correlated value on Jandiroba by decision (projected +211, listed +320 at BetRivers), which you can bet straight to +250 or use as a round-robin piece.
Alternatively, consider betting a same game parlay (SGP) at DraftKings with Jandiroba and Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) – roughly the price I'd hope to get on Virna live if the fight is tied 1-1 after Round 2.
The Picks: SGP – Virna Jandiroba & Over 1.5 Rounds (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings | Over 3.5 Rounds (-110) | Jandiroba Live after Round 2
