Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park Odds
(UPDATE: Saturday night's UFC Vegas 94 co-main event between Brad Tavares and Jun Yong Park has been canceled, UFC officials announced on Friday. Park wasn't cleared to compete due to an undisclosed medical issue.)
Here's the latest on the Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park odds on Saturday, July 20, with our expert UFC Vegas 94 prediction and pick for the co-main event.
The co-headliner for this UFC Vegas 94, which is also called UFC on ESPN 60, features a middleweight mashup between Brad Tavares and Jun Yong Park.
Tavares, who is the most-tenured member of the roster at 185 pounds, should get a lot more respect than he does considering that his sort of longevity is fairly rare in today's UFC.
That said, Tavares has been struggling to stay consistent as of late and is in need of a turnaround this weekend.
Standing in the Hawaiian's way is the increasingly popular "Iron Turtle," who could easily be on a five-fight winning streak if he weren't on the wrong end of a suspect split decision in his last outing.
Here's my pick and prediction for the UFC Vegas 94 co-main event, which will also see Tavares set a record for career UFC middleweight appearances (25).
Tale of the Tape
| Tavares | Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-10 | 17-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:49 | 11:29 |
| Height | 6'1" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/21/1987 | 2/27/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.38 | 4.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.78 | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 50% |
| TD Def | 81% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.1 |
I know I use the term "well-rounded" a lot, but there really is no better descriptor for both men in this matchup.
A Korean workhorse who embodies a similar approach to the warships he's named after, Park is not afraid to mix it up as one of the smaller middleweights on the UFC roster.
Working behind a steady dose of jabs, Park prefers to prod his way into the pocket, where his punches start to count for more. Once Park closes into clinch space, he's not shy about looking for takedowns and other forms of transitional offense.
Park is also an excellent operator from the top position and has little issue when it comes to pressing any potential advantages that become apparent there.
That said, taking down someone like Tavares could be more difficult than meets the eye.
Aside from having a takedown defense rating that's north of 80%, Tavares displays excellent balance and counter-wrestling instincts to boot. Seldom will you see Tavares throw himself out of position, which is why it usually takes top-shelf athletes to get the jump on him.
Akin to Park, Tavares also favors flowing his offense behind an active jab.
Although Tavares is much less aggressive with his approach, the 36-year-old Hawaiian is better about incorporating more feints and low kicks into the equation.
Tavares also has some underrated counterpunching, but leaning too heavily into his vaunted durability has become an increasingly troublesome tightrope for The Ultimate Fighter veteran to walk at this point of his career.
Tavares vs. Park Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the younger fighter, listing Park -160 and Tavares +135 as of this writing.
Despite not being surprised to see Park favored, it's nice to see both sides of this fight being given a modicum of respect given the tight spread listed above.
It's important to note that I have an undeniable bias when it comes to picking a side in this matchup given my relationship with Tavares' training camp and corner. However, I stand by what I believe to be a fair and accurate analytical breakdown of both parties (as I'm a big fan of Park, as well).
Regardless of which side you're favoring, I think that the totals department is the safest way to play this fight.
I don't blame anyone for looking to bet Park at a semi-playable price, but if you're going to eat some chalk, then why not just take the Over 2.5 rounds for some safer coverage?
Aside from Tavares being more skilled and lively than given credit for, the Hawaiian's counter-wrestling and shot selection could stymie a lot of Park's offense from a stylistic perspective.
Not only has Park struggled with the few fighters who have actually tried to jab him, but the Korean's boxing-centric stance also invites the calf kicks that Tavares loves to throw.
Add in the fact that freakishly athletic knockout artists have been the traditional kryptonite when it comes to stopping Tavares, and we could be in for 15 minutes of jab trades that play out too close for comfort regardless of whom you're on.
For that reason, I recommend using the Over 2.5 rounds in this fight as a parlay piece. On my personal betting card, I paired it with the Over 2.5 rounds for the Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva fight (-215) for overall +109 parlay odds on Thursday.
As of Friday morning, you can find Tavares-Park Over 2.5 at -250 or better at most sportsbooks. ESPN BET has the best odds at -225 at the time of this writing.
There's not a ton of parlay fodder on this card given how well-matched it is, but totals like this are probably as close as you're gonna get to a "safe bet" this Saturday.
The Pick: Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park over 2.5 rounds (-225) as a parlay piece (Fight Canceled)
