Check out the UFC Vegas 94 odds with our expert best bets for the Saturday, July 20 event, which features Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba.
UFC Vegas 94 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card airs on ESPN2 at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT), and the main is on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The full event is also available on ESPN+.
Fight fans aren't exactly skipping their summer barbecues and beach parties to catch this weekend's less-than-stellar fight card. Still, with 11 bouts and at least a few familiar names on the fight card, MMA bettors have plenty of opportunities to place a wager or two.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and seven picks on Saturday’s midsummer card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC odds as of Saturday evening. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 94 Odds & Best Bets
Tony Sartori: Miranda Maverick vs. Dione Barbosa
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Tonight's UFC prelims feature a flyweight bout between Miranda Maverick (-238) and Dione Barbosa (+195). Maverick was originally slated to face Tracy Cortez before the latter stepped in to take on Rose Namajunas in last week's UFC Denver main event.
This change of schedule is a tough break for Maverick, who was looking to earn a ranking with a win over Cortez. A win over Barbosa does nothing for Maverick, but it still should be a relatively easy task. Hence the hefty price tag on her moneyline.
Barbosa won in her UFC debut against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC 301, but that fight could have gone either way as neither fighter really did anything. I personally thought Kareckaite looked better than Barbosa and won 29-28, and half of the media scores saw it the same way.
I'm not sure how much of a threat Barbosa is going to be in the UFC other than constantly throwing submission attempts, which is not going to be a recipe for success against Maverick, who has never tapped across 18 professional MMA bouts.
That pretty much nullifies Barbosa's only path to victory because Maverick is the superior fighter in every dimension. With that said, I believe that Maverick will be more cautious grappling and wrestling to avoid exposing a submission threat, which bodes well for backing her to win by decision.
Oddsmakers agree, considering that the "fight to go to decision" prop is listed as wide as -290. I expect cautious wrestling and patient striking from Maverick, two things that increase the likelihood of the superior fighter winning by decision.
Four of Maverick's past seven wins have come by decision, as well as Barbosa's latest professional loss.
The Pick: Miranda Maverick via decision (-105 at BetRivers)
Sean Zerillo: Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Cody Durden (+105) and Bruno Silva (-125) are teammates at American Top Team – and share the same manager – but they'll square off on Saturday in the flyweight division as Silva looks for a fourth consecutive victory (after beginning his UFC tenure 0-3) while Durden searches for a fifth win in six fights.
The American Durden is the better wrestler in the matchup, but the Brazilian Silva should land more damage and has more finishing upside. He's the superior striker and submission grappler; Durden needs to keep Silva on his back and either submit him or control him for significant portions of this fight to secure a decision.
That's no easy task against a muscular, 5-foot-4 flyweight constantly working to get back to his feet.
And even if Durden does control his opponent for long stretches, Silva can steal rounds with the more eye-catching blows in limited striking exchanges.
If Durden had better cardio, I'd give him more of a chance in this matchup. However, I'd expect Silva to outlast him down the stretch after repeatedly denying takedown attempts or scrambling back up to his feet from successful shots.
I projected Bruno Silva as a -122 favorite in this fight and would bet him to -115. I projected his odds to finish or win inside the distance at +181, compared to listed odds of +240.
The Picks: Bruno Silva (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook) | Silva Wins Inside the Distance (+240 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
I didn’t get to a UFC Luck Ratings article this week, but if I had, Kaynan Kruschewsky certainly would’ve been in it. He’s a very misleading 0-1 in the UFC with his loss coming as a last-minute replacement and up a weight class against Elves Brenner.
When you also consider that Brenner is now 3-1 in the UFC, that’s a fairly excusable loss. Kruschewsky looks like a solid all-around fighter based on his other performances with nine submission wins and four knockouts.
Kruschewsky (-130) holds black belts in both muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he's probably the better fighter both standing and on the ground in his matchup against Kurt Holobaugh (+110).
Holobaugh is 1-5 across two stints in the UFC with his only win coming in the TUF 31 tournament final. While that was technically an official UFC fight, it’s essentially an extension of the reality show and carries less weight in my handicapping.
Holobaugh has dangerous submissions, but he doesn’t wrestle particularly well or pack a lot of power standing. He’s also less than two months away from turning 38, putting him well past the age curve in the lighter-weight classes.
While Kruschewsky is no spring chicken at 33, he’s still closer to his physical peak by a decent amount. He’s also probably just recently training for MMA as a full-time job, so it’s not unreasonable to expect some progression from the favorite here.
I would absolutely take the -130 odds on Kruschewsky available Friday, but keep an eye on the markets. His price has been steadily dropping throughout the week, and you may be able to find a better line closer to fight time.
The Pick: Kaynan Kruschewsky (-130 at DraftKings or Caesars)
Dann Stupp: Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
When betting markets began to open for Saturday night's UFC Vegas 94 main event of Amanda Lemos (+105) vs. Virna Jandiroba (-125), the totals and some props really caught my eye.
As my colleague Sean Zerillo details in our Lemos vs. Jandiroba preview, oddsmakers may have goofed when they set these totals. While UFC strawweight bouts are typically decision magnets, oddsmakers seem to have put a little too much faith in Lemos' and Jandiroba's finishing ability – especially when considering they'll each be facing a durable opponent.
Lemos and Jandiroba have a lot of finishes on their records. However, as the quality of competition increased with their arrival in the UFC and their climb up the ranks, those finishes have become less frequent.
Sean uses public data for his UFC projections, and he's got Lemos vs. Jandiroba projected to reach a decision 49% of the time (odds equivalent of +104). However, oddsmakers give it just a 40% (+150) chance. My projection is far more of a guestimate, but I'd put it closer to the 55% (-122) to 60% (-150) range. So, for a bet I think should be -150, we're getting +150 odds.
Therefore, like Sean, I see value – and value galore, in my case.
However, on what otherwise looks like a ho-hum, probably-can-miss-it-if-you-wanna UFC fight card, let's have a little fun with the last fight of the night: Let's ladder these totals. Rather than wagering 1.5 units on one bet, we're going to bet 0.5 units on a trio of picks.
First, we'll go with the conservative play: Over 2.5 rounds, which Betfred has at a market-best -159 odds. We'll play it to -180.
Second, we'll go with Over 3.5 rounds, which is available at a market-best -110 odds at one major sportsbook, and three others (Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers) have it available at -115. We'll play it to -140.
Lastly, we're going to bet that this fight goes the full distance, which we get at +150 odds at a trio of books (Caesars, bet365 and Hard Rock). Play this nightcap to +120.
The Picks: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Over 2.5 rounds (-159 at Betfred) | Over 3.5 rounds (-110) | Goes to Decision (+150 at Caesars)
