Check out our UFC picks for UFC Vegas 94 with our favorite long-shot UFC prop bets for Saturday, July 20.
UFC Vegas 94 will takee place tonight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The prelims air on ESPN2 (5 p.m. ET), and the main card is on ESPN (8 p.m. ET). The full fight card is also available on ESPN+.
No, this isn't a major UFC event. No, casual fight fans won't be tuning in. But us – dedicated MMA betting enthusiasts? We're always up for a little action. And with our weekly prop bets, that action comes with very long odds.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +19.3 units and a +4.6% ROI per bet since inception.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 94 odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon and via Caesars. Bet on the UFC with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
UFC Vegas 94 Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Miranda Maverick, Separator of Contenders and Pretenders
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Dann Stupp: I'm betting on Miranda Maverick (-250) getting the job done – and forcing a stoppage – in her prelim bout with fellow flyweight and late replacement Dione Barbosa (+205).
I wish I could say there were some level of deep analysis that went into this pick. However, to me, it's pretty straightforward: Maverick shuts down the pretenders, and she's competitive with the contenders.
In other words, when Maverick meets someone who's outmatched in the size and skill department, the human-sized bicep tends to have her way with them (Liana Jojua, Sabina Mazo, Priscila Cachoeira).
The jury's still out on Barbosa, who picked up a decision win over Ernesta Kareckaite (5-0-1) in her UFC debut. She is a legit submission threat with a solid ground game, but aside from an early-career win over Karine Silva (now a ranked UFC contender), her resume is fairly lacking.
Barbosa hasn't been truly tested against the elite of 125 pounds, and Maverick is steadily approaching that category. In this fight, I think Maverick's defensive wrestling, speed and striking power should all be on display.
I could see Maverick scoring a late knockout after a stream of punches begin to take a toll. I could also see her powering her way to an advantageous position on the mat and in the smaller UFC Apex cage and squeezing a submission until she gets a tap-out of some sort.
Either way, +375 at BetRivers for Maverick to win by stoppage is just too long of a price, in my eyes. I give Maverick a 75% (-300) chance of winning this fight, so I do see some value on her moneyline. But I see this fight ending by Maverick by stoppage about 25% (+300) to 30% of the time (+233), so I see even more value on the rising prospect to score a win by finish at +375.
The Pick: Miranda Maverick to win by finish (+375 at BetRivers)
Bill Algeo's Hot Rounds
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Dan Tom: For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to go back to the well and target some potential "hot rounds" in the main-card bout between Bill Algeo (-185) and Doo Ho Choi (+155).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round finishers with suspect staying power vs. durable, building fighters who pick up late.
Although Algeo is technically coming off the first stoppage loss of his career, you can argue that his last fight was stopped early – especially considering Algeo's history with staging comebacks.
Choi will likely get off to his usual great start, but "The Korean Superboy" has traditionally faired poorly when fighting past the first frame.
Couple that with the chaos that the small cage of the UFC Apex encourages, and I believe that Algeo is live to finish in the mid-to-late rounds (particularly Round 2 given that eight of his 11 finishes come within that frame).
The Picks: Bill Algeo in Round 2 (+1000) | Algeo in Round 3 (+1500 at Caesars)
Don't Slow Down Against Bruno Silva
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Clint MacLean: I like to target submission props against fighters who get noticeably tired as the bout wears on.
I also like to target submission props against fighters we know will grapple.
I think we're getting both of the above with tonight's UFC Vegas 94 bout between flyweights Cody Durden (+105) and Bruno Silva (-125).
Durden is a fighter who pushes such a hard grappling pace that he completely wears himself out. We have seen him make mental mistakes and leave his neck out. Against an opponent such as Silva, that's a recipe for disaster.
Everything lines up perfectly for me here to take a shot on Silva getting a submission.
The Pick: Bruno Silva by Submission (+575 at BetRivers)
Holobaugh Not So Bad, Kruschewsky Not So Good
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Tony Sartori: Saturday's UFC main card features a lightweight bout between Kurt Holobaugh (+115) and Kaynan Kruschewsky (-135). The steam is on underdog Holobaugh, who opened at +136 and has since been bet down to his current price.
I agree with the steam and believe Holobaugh is absolutely a live 'dog in this fight. My thoughts are basically that I believe two things regarding this fight: Holobaugh is not as bad as his 1-6 (with 1 no-contest) UFC record suggests, and Kruschewsky is not very good.
Let's start with Holobaugh.
His last loss came against Trey Ogden, who wrestled him into oblivion. That's not the game for Kruschewsky, who is a jiu-jitsu guy by trade.
Prior to losing to Ogden, Holobaugh had a 2-3 stretch in which he submitted Austin Hubbard and knocked out Matt Bessette. The three losses in between those two wins came against Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos and Raoni Barcelos.
With all due respect to Kruschewsky, he is nowhere near the level of those three guys. Speaking of which, Kruschewsky is coming off a loss to Elves Brener, who starched him in the first round.
I do not at all trust that chin moving forward, which paves a way for Holobaugh to secure a victory; three of his past four wins have come by KO/TKO.
The Pick: Kurt Holobaugh by KO/TKO/DQ (+380 at BetRivers)
