Check out the latest UFC Vegas 95 odds with expert best bets for the Saturday night event, which features heavyweights Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac in the main event.
UFC Vegas 95 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The entire event is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
While heavyweights take top billing on this lower-level UFC card, we're targeting other matchups for our UFC best bets tonight.
So where should you look to place your UFC Vegas 95 bets? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and four picks on tonight's Sin City fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 95 odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Moneyline Projections
UFC Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 95 Odds With Best Bets
Billy Ward: Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
A whopping 20% of the UFC Vegas 95 card is comprised of heavyweight fights, which tells you about the excitement level for this card. While the main event isn’t expected to be a barn burner, at least the prelim match features an exciting prospect.
That would be Jhonata Diniz, whose success in this fight heavily correlates with how much fun the fight will be. Diniz is the UFC’s attempt to find a heavyweight Alex Pereira (at least until “Poatan” officially moves up) – a dangerous Brazilian kickboxer making a late-career transition to MMA.
Diniz has all the striking credentials one could ask for, with international-level championships to his name. He’s also passed every test in his young MMA career, going 7-0 with seven knockouts (six in the first round).
Diniz (+150) is an underdog against Karl Williams (-180), who’s 4-0 between the UFC and Contender Series with all his wins via decision. Williams should have a significant grappling edge here, but he doesn’t typically do much with it.
Since all three rounds start on the feet, Diniz should have a few opportunities to find the button and put Williams out. Or, he could do enough damage prior to (or after) a takedown to steal some rounds.
The latter scenario is why I slightly prefer Diniz’s moneyline to his KO prop at +335 (BetRivers), but I’ll be mixing my exposure between both plays.
For the risk-averse among us, Diniz’s “finish only” line – which gets refunded if the fight hits the judges – at +100 is also an interesting way to play it. Diniz has managed to stay safe when getting taken down so far while Williams doesn’t aggressively hunt finishes.
I’d be happy with any combination of those three plays on Diniz, based on your risk/reward tolerance. But for my official UFC Vegas 95 best bet this week, I'm going with the straight moneyline play.
The Pick: Jhonata Diniz (+175 at ESPN BET)
Tony Sartori: Toshiomi Kazma vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main card will open with an unranked bantamweight bout between Toshiomi Kazama (+200) and Charalampos Grigoriou (-245). Grigoriou is the heavy favorite in this bout, and for good reason.
With all due respect to Kazama, he has no business being in the UFC. The only reason that he is signed is because he had an uninspiring win during the "Road to UFC" contest against Maimaitituoheti Keremauili, a fighter under WLF banner with 13 career losses.
I believe that the UFC felt the need to give him another look for the win, but that has led to further disaster. While Kazama was rewarded with one more "Road to UFC" bout, Rinya Nakamura knocked him out in under a minute.
Again, the UFC felt the need to still reward him for that win against Keremauili, so Kazama was signed after that knockout loss and awarded an opportunity against Garrett Armfield.
What happened in that fight? Armfield absolutely dominated Kazama on the feet and won by first-round KO/TKO. Not to keep hounding on the guy, but Kazama is an untalented striker (relative to this level) with a glass chin, which is a recipe for disaster against Grigoriou.
Six of Grigoriou's eight professional wins have come by KO/TKO, and that is the best way to bet the favorite in this spot. This fight is a pure striking mismatch, and given Grigoriou's 100% takedown defense in the UFC, I don't see a world where Kazama hangs in there long enough to see the judges' scorecards. I grabbed Grigoriou by KO at +100, and I'd play it down to -110.
The Pick: Charalampos Grigoriou by KO/TKO (+100 at FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretnnikov
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Nikolay Veretnnikov previously lost a Contender Series fight to top welterweight prospect Michael Morales – and was supposed to get another opportunity this upcoming season – but will instead make a short-notice promotional debut against an extremely dangerous striker in Danny "LeftHand2God" Barlow.
Veretnnikov (+310) is an educated striker, and it's challenging for any non-grappler – like Barlow (-395) – to cover a hefty moneyline price tag in a 15-minute kickboxing matchup.
Still, Barlow has a four-inch reach advantage, elite speed and athleticism, and extraordinary power in his hands, which has led to five first-round knockouts in eight pro fights. Barlow landed 95 significant strikes in 11 minutes before finishing an extremely durable Josh Quinlan; lesser opponents wouldn't have lasted a round taking that damage.
With tons of volume – and power that seemingly carries to the third round – it's easier to envision Barlow losing once he faces an opponent who can wrestle him and keep him on his back. Still, Veretnnikov doesn't have the requisite offensive grappling needed to break Barlow's pressure.
I project this bout to end inside the distance 71.1% of the time (-246 implied odds), more often than the market expects (listed -163). I would bet the ends inside the distance prop to -213 or the Under 2.5 Rounds to -160.
However, I would weigh more of the finish equity toward Barlow (projected -163) and prefer his finish prop to -145.
Lastly, I'd consider betting Barlow to win in Round 1 (+330 at BallyBet); he'll face more adversity as he ascends the welterweight rankings, but "special" prospects typically quickly dispatch short-notice UFC debutants, especially in the smaller UFC Apex cage.
The Picks: Danny Barlow wins Inside the Distance (+100 at DraftKings) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-163 at Betway)
