Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal Odds
| Jackson Odds | +162 |
| Mariscal Odds | -194 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-116 / -110) |
| Location | UFC Apex in Las Vegas |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN & ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 95 odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on the UFC with our FanDuel promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal odds at UFC Vegas 95 on Saturday, Aug. 10 – with my expert UFC prediction and pick.
While this is, to put it mildly, one of the least exciting UFC cards in a long time, that's not the fault of Saturday night's co-main event. I've had Jose "Chepe" Mariscal vs. Damon Jackson circled as one of the standout bouts on this card since its announcement, even before it got elevated to co-main-event status.
Mariscal is 3-0 in his short UFC career, and he's being given a stiff test in the game veteran Jackson. "The Leech" is turning into featherweight's version of Neil Magny, repelling would-be contenders who aren't quite up to snuff – as we saw when he dispatched then-undefeated Pat Sabatini.
Mariscal will be looking to avoid the same fate, and oddsmakers like his chances to do so. Let's break this one down to see if the price is justified, or to see if we can possibly find another way to play this one with a round prop.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Jackson | Mariscal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-6-1 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:57 | 12:46 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 146 lbs. | 149 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/8/1988 | 10/27/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.29 | 3.68 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.51 | 2.35 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 28% |
| TD Def | 40% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.4 |
Chepe Mariscal, who missed weight for this 146-pound fight (149), was never a top prospect. In fact, he found his way to the UFC only because he accepted a short-notice fight last summer, up a weight class against Trevor Peek. He won that fight on the strength of four takedowns – and hasn't stopped winning since.
What Mariscal lacked in hype coming into the UFC he more than made up for in experience. By my count, he took on seven former or future UFC opponents in various regional promotions plus that win over Sabatini.
In recent years MMA has become more like boxing, where fighters seek to protect their record before getting to the big show. It's refreshing to see the opposite approach, especially when we're seeing it pay dividends in the case or Mariscal.
The judo black belt and former college wrestler is at his best when grappling, as we saw in his UFC debut against Peek. He neutralized Peek's aggressive style by clinching while his opponent rushed forward, scoring three of his four takedowns with a harai goshi throw from an over-under clinch.
He picked up a finish of Jack Jenkins with the same throw when Jenkins broke his arm while trying to post to avoid the throw (practice your breakfalls, kids).
While the secret is likely out on his throwing ability, Mariscal is a competent striker, as well. His boxing was on display in his recent fight against Morgan Charriere, in which he used steady forward pressure, volume and leg kicks to make up for his lack of length and speed.
While I wouldn't bet on Mariscal in a boxing or kickboxing match, the constant threat of his throws and takedowns opens up a lot of striking opportunities for him despite his below-average (by UFC levels) athleticism. Mariscal is hittable – he has three KO losses on the regional scene – but only if you can avoid being taken down.
Which makes this a fun matchup with Jackson, a former NAIA All-American wrestler and Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt. Fifteen of his 23 professional wins have come via submission, and he averages more than 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes himself.
It's the second UFC stint for Jackson, who went 0-1-1 for the promotion from 2014-2016, but he's 6-3 since finding his way back in 2020. At 36, the window has almost certainly closed on his chances to be a title contender, but he's an effective measuring stick for up-and-coming featherweights.
He's a fairly straightforward striker, primarily boxing with the occasional leg kick mixed in from an orthodox stance. He uses his height and length to land overhand rights over the top of his opponent's defense, but without a ton of power on them.
In fact, he's never landed a knockdown in the UFC with his punches mainly used to get his opponents backing up to facilitate takedowns. Like Mariscal, he does his best work from top position.
Jackson vs. Mariscal Pick
I'm a bit torn on the grappling in this fight, and I'm not especially confident in either man's ability to keep the other on that mat. Even if it gets there, both have the skills to stay out of too much danger from their back and/or return to the feet.
However, Mariscal should be the aggressor on the feet, where he has the edge in power and activity over Jackson. Not many featherweight opponents will make Mariscal look fast, but Jackson might be one of them.
That's enough to justify his moneyline price – but not enough for me to bet it. Instead, I'm looking at his Round 3/Decision prop on FanDuel (listed under "Round Props" and then "Alt. Round Betting," or simply use our QuickSlip link below to have your betslip automatically filled out for you).
Outside of the freak injury to Jenkins, Mariscal has never picked up a quick win against UFC-tier opponents. I could see a finish due to attrition, but that should take a couple of rounds to develop – with the likeliest outcome being a decision victory for Mariscal.
The Pick: Chepe Mariscal Round 3/Decision (+140 at FanDuel)
