Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC Vegas 95 this Saturday, August 10, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC Vegas 95 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire card is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 95 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Serghei Spivac (-148) vs. Marcin Tybura (+124)
The much-maligned UFC Vegas 95 main event on Saturday is a rematch nobody asked for, and it's between top-10 UFC heavyweight contenders Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. While "top 10" makes this sound like a critical matchup, it's worth noting that there are really, at best, five or so heavyweights with a realistic shot at contending for the title(s).
The first meeting between these two went down back in Februrary 2020 with Tybura winning 30-27 (x2) and 29-28. He largely controlled the fight on the ground with more than two minutes of top control in the first and third rounds.
Typically the numbers favor the prior winner in rematches – but they also favor the younger fighter. In this case that's Spivac, who's nine years the junior of Tybura.
Both fighters have been in similar form since their meeting with Spivac holding a 6-2 record with losses to current "interim" champion Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane while Tybura is 7-2 with losses to Aspinall and No. 3 contender Alexander Volkov.
That gives us little to work with here, so I could see a case for the underdog Tybura – since the trends cancel out and age isn't as much of a factor in heavier weight classes. No reason to make that bet early, though.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Yana Santos (-135) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+114)
It might be last call for Yana Santos – formerly Yana Kunitskaya – who's now dropped her last three fights in the UFC. In her defense, she had a child in 2022 with two of those losses coming since then, and she was 4-2 in the UFC prior to that.
She's facing Chelsea Chandler, a training partner of the Diaz brothers with a 2-1 UFC record. Chandler is a former 145-pound featherweight who had to make the transition to 135 pounds when the UFC axed its heavier female divison, and she missed weight by a pound in her divisional debut.
Still, while she's only about a year younger, Chandler is the "fresher" fighter. She has just eight pro fights in total with a pro career that started in 2018. It's reasonable to believe she's still on the upswing while Santos may have one foot out the door.
Plus, we always prefer the plus-money side on fights likely to hit the judges, and the Over 2.5 rounds here is -345. I'll take a sprinkle on Chandler, and at the time of this writing, the best odds of +120 are at BetMGM.
Verdict: Chelsea Chandler undervalued
Karl Williams (-205) vs. Jhonata Diniz (+170)
The corollary to taking underdogs in fights likely to hit the judges is taking underdogs who have more finishing upside. That's the case in this card's other heavyweight bout between Karl Williams vs. Jhonata Diniz.
Williams is 4-0 between the UFC and Contender Series with a takedown-heavy style and four decisions. Diniz is 2-0 in the UFC and Contender Series with two knockouts.
In fact, all seven of the undefeated Diniz's pro wins have been knockouts, which is to be expected giving his extensive kickboxing background. Until his UFC debut, none of those fights even saw a second round.
I'm taking an early sprinkle on Diniz here, who's already seen his line drop from around +200. Plus, I'll be looking to add more via his knockout or Rounds 1/2 props (depending on pricing) later in the week while keeping my eyes peeled for an opportunity to hedge with Williams live. BetMGM has the moneyline best price at +185.
Verdict: Jhonata Diniz undervalued
Allan Nascimento (-205) vs. Jafel Filho (+170)
A pairing of Brazilian flyweights opens the main card on Saturday with Allan Nascimento taking on Jafel Filho.
Nascimento is 2-2 for the promotion counting his loss on the Contender Series, with both losses coming via split decision. Filho is 3-1 across the promotion with his lone loss an ultra-competitive short-notice fight against Muhammad Mokaev.
Filho has finished all three of his wins – and was dangerously close to finishing Mokaev with a kneebar – while Nascimento needed a decision against Jake Hadley. Both fighters are primarily grapplers, but Filho has far better numbers in that department.
Which is why I'm surprised to see him as a fairly heavy underdog. I must not be the only one; his line has started to drop after opening around +190 at early-to-post books.
The best current line is +175 at Caesars Sportsbook, which I don't expect to last much longer – so jump on Filho now.
Verdict: Jafel Filho undervalued
