Check out our UFC props for UFC Vegas 95 tonight with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, August 10.
UFC Vegas 95 takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, and the entire event is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
With 10 fights, we've got plenty of UFC Vegas 95 prop opportunities, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a trio that they like for the card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who – after a recent dry spell – have tallied +4.3 units and a +1.0% ROI per bet to date.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 95 odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Vegas 95 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Dann Stupp: Super-Obvious Play on Zalal
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
It's certainly not the sexiest pick (especially compared to my colleagues' super-juicy picks below), but I still think we're getting some tremendous value with my Prop Squad selection this week.
Youssef Zalal (-500) is gonna beat Jarno Errens (+380). That seems like a foregone conclusion – at least it is according to many of the handicappers and analysts who've earned my respect.
Additionally, 96% of Tapology prognosticators are picking Zalal. That translates to odds of -2381, yet he's available from -425 to -500, depending on the sportsbook. Those implied odds may be a bit of a stretch, and I personally think Zalal wins this fight about 85% (-568) of the time. So I do see solid value on his moneyline, though the payout on a straight play would obviously be minimal.
But this is MMA Prop Squad, and we like to hunt for big(ger) game. Rather than simply using Zalal's moneyline as parlay fodder this week, I also dipped into the prop markets for this fight. And something really stood out to me: Zalal via submission at +300.
Errens, a Dutch kickboxer, obviously prefers to keep this fight standing. When he has room to work, he can control a fight with his range and crisp striking, including some nasty uppercuts. But his takedown defense is shaky, and he's meeting Morocco's Zalal at the exact wrong time.
After his first UFC run petered out, Zalal racked up a trio of stoppage wins on the regional circuit. That earned him an invite back to the UFC earlier this year, and he's now riding high after a recent submission win over ridiculously tough UFC vet Billy Quarantillo.
Over 15 minutes, Zalal will have ample opportunity to get this fight to the mat. It might take just one takedown. And at +300 odds, I'll take a piece of Zalal via submission.
The Pick: Youssef Zalal by Submission (+300 at ESPN BET & DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: The +1800 Submission Flier
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC featured prelim is a clash between the No. 8-ranked UFC bantamweight contender Karol Rosa (-218) and No. 11 Pannie Kianzad (+180). If you are going to back the favorite, then I believe that there are worse fliers to take than Rosa to win by submission at a whopping 18/1.
This line is so absurdly long because all of Rosa's nine UFC bouts have gone to decision. However, I want you to follow along with me and see why I believe a win by submission is more likely than the 6.25% implied probability that 18/1 offers.
Rosa can bring this fight to the mat as she has landed 11 takedowns over her past eight fights. Meanwhile, Kianzad has been taken down 10 times over her past seven bouts.
I feel that it is a relatively safe assumption that at least a small portion of this 15-minute scrap is played out on the canvas. Once there, is it possible that Rosa secures a submission?
I absolutely believe so. Rosa is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with two of her past 11 professional MMA wins coming by submission.
She has also spent some time in grappling competitions over the past two years, beating Nat Benes with a rear-naked choke and losing to Raquel Canuto by the same maneuver. Rosa has actively been working on a submission game, which creates a path to victory against Kianzad considering that the latter just lost to Macy Chiasson by rear-naked choke.
The Pick: Karol Rosa by Submission (+1800 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: A Late Fade of Chelsea
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Yana Santos (-155) will face Chelsea Chandler (+130) on Saturday, and the latter looks like she is headed for the chopping block. Chandler blew through the agreed 136-weight limit and came in at 141 pounds at Friday's weigh-ins.
The UFC is looking to get rid of the women's 145-pound featherweight division, and Chandler has yet to make 135 pounds, even though she is ranked in the division. It also marks back-to-back weight misses for her.
Santos, meanwhile, looks like she is in the best shape of her life and has a size advantage over the struggling Chandler. Santos has the better overall skill set and cardio, and she's coming into this fight in better shape.
Chandler has a notably terrible gas tank, and knowing the UFC may cut her after this fight, you have to wonder where she is mentally this week.
I believe Santos will break her, and as Chandler fades, Yana will pour it on and look for a late finish.
