Check out the full UFC Vegas 96 odds with our expert best bets for Saturday, August 24, with a Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho main event.
UFC Vegas 96 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT), and the main card is available on ESPN and ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and five picks on tonight's card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using UFC odds from DraftKings.
UFC odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 96 with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 96 Odds & Best Bets
Tony Sartori: Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC featured prelim is a featherweight bout between unranked contenders Dennis Buzukja (+154) and Francis Marshall (-185). Buzukja was originally supposed to take on Danny Silva before the latter withdrew earlier this week due to an injury.
Marshall is now stepping in on just four days' notice, which is one of the multiple reasons that I believe he is overpriced at -140. Neither of these guys is very good relative to his peers in the UFC, and whenever that is the case, the underdog is worth a look in what I estimate to be a toss-up fight between two guys who are on the same level.
After securing a contract through Dana White's Contender Series, Marshall beat Marcelo Rojo in his UFC debut. However, he went on to lose his next two fights to William Gomis and Isaac Dulgarian.
I'm most concerned with that most recent loss, as Dulgarian absolutely blew through Marshall in what was a one-sided performance that resulted in a first-round KO/TKO. Marshall hasn't competed since that loss last August, and that long layoff could result in some octagon rust come Saturday.
Meanwhile, Buzukja is coming off a full training camp and a win over Connor Matthews in March. It was, by far, the best he has looked since joining the UFC, and I believe he will carry that momentum against a guy who is coming off a loss and hasn't fought in more than a year.
Buzukja is a more accurate striker and carries more power than Marshall, who will want this fight on the mat. With that said, I trust Buzukja and his 72% takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet, which would flip the betting line.
The Pick: Dennis Buzukja (+125 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:05 p.m. ET
We often hear about how the smaller cage of the UFC Apex facility can be of great benefit to grapplers, who use the reduced square footage to work angles for takedowns.
But we too often overlook how the UFC's small cage can benefit certain types of strikers, especially fast starters.
I think the venue and the opponent are perfect for Edmen Shahbazyan (-310), who meets fellow big middleweight Gerald Meerschaert (+250) in the UFC Vegas 96 main-card opener.
Shahbazyan can be a fast starter, but his cardio also falls off a cliff midway through fights, so if he wins on Saturday, it will likely come in the first 10 minutes of the fight.
Meerschaert can hang around and be a third-round threat against many fighters. But not against the guys (Joe Pyfer, Khamzat Chimaev, Ian Heinisch) who step on the gas immediately and have true KO power. Shahbazyan is a finisher (92% of career wins), and Meerschaert leaves himself too open to be an exception this weekend.
Rather than playing the chalky -345 moneyline, I'm heading to FanDuel for this matchup's "Round Props" menu, where I can find Shahbazyan to win in Round 1 or Round 2 at -130 odds.
I don't see Shahbazyan being all that effective after the 10-minute mark anyway, and the small cage and defensively challenged opponent should work to his advantage early in the fight.
The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan in Rounds 1-2 (-130 at FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Tabatha Ricci vs. Angela Hill
Senior staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
As mentioned in my UFC Vegas 96 main event preview, younger (and typically less well-known) fighters are often undervalued when there's a substantial age gap between MMA opponents.
Across more than 500 fights since 2013, fighters a decade or younger than their opponent have won 71.4% of bouts at average odds of -137 (57.8% implied), a 13.6% differential in actual vs. implied win probability.
Tabatha Ricci (-148) is at a size disadvantage against most opponents, including Angela Hill (+124), who's two inches taller with a three-inch reach advantage. Still, she is the younger and better athlete – with all the grappling upside – and I projected her as a 61% favorite (-156 implied odds). Bet Ricci's moneyline up to -145.
Hill is the superior distance striker (+0.0 to -1.4 strike differential at distance). However, the smaller UFC Apex cage plays to Ricci's advantage, allowing her to get her hands on Hill – or force her opponent up against the fence – and initiate takedowns (averages 4.2 per round, 35% accuracy).
Hill's defensive wrestling (76% career) and overall grappling game have improved later in her career. Still, Hill is nearly 40 – with a sub.-500 record in the UFC – and Ricci is the apparent A-side in this fight, and she's being given an ideal matchup against an opponent with name recognition who has struggled against other proactive grapplers in the past.
Hill's upside is a close and competitive decision whereas Ricci can win dominant rounds on the mat or even potentially finish the fight.
In addition to her straight moneyline, I also like Ricci in the finish-only market (-140), in which bets are refunded if the fight goes to decision. I may also use Ricci by submission (projected +720, listed +800) on round-robin tickets.
The Picks: Tabatha Ricci (-125 at BetMGM) | Finish-Only Moneyline: Ricci (-145 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
I don’t often take the favorite side of the point spread bet offered by DraftKings. It’s relatively hard, especially in three-round fights, for fighters to cover their line without picking up a finish.
It requires a fighter to win all three rounds – with no shenanigans from a rogue judge.
However, five-round fights are a different story. With the line set at -5.5, fighters who win at least four of five rounds cover their odds, so they can still have a bad frame and cash the ticket.
Which brings me to this bet. Caio Borralho (-245) is +150 to finish this fight, which isn’t a huge difference in terms of implied probability (15%) from his -125 spread. I expect “The Natural” to be the better fighter in all phases against 40-year-old Jared Cannonier (+200), who was recently finished for the first time at middleweight in January.
Borralho has strong judo and jiu-jitsu abilities, and he's probably the better striker at this point in their careers.
This is effectively a way to cut the juice on Borralho’s moneyline in half while still picking up a win unless it’s a tight decision.
The Pick: Caio Borralho -5.5 point spread (-125 at DraftKings)
