Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with early UFC Vegas 96 predictions for Saturday with overvalued and undervalued fighters heading into the event.
UFC Vegas 96 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Following a preliminary card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, tonight's main card is on ESPN and ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 96 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 96 Predictions With Luck Ratings
Caio Borralho (-205) vs. Jared Cannonier (+170)
After losing in his bid for middleweight gold in 2022, Jared Cannonier was close to a potential second crack at the title – and then he got knocked out by Nassourdine Imavov. That loss was less than three months ago with the now 40-year-old "Killa Gorilla" seemingly relegated to "gatekeeper" status.
Especially considering this matchup against the fast-rising Caio Borralho. "The Natural" is now 6-0 in the UFC against an ever-increasing quality of opponent. A win against No. 5 ranked Cannonier would officially propel Borralho to "contender" status in what has now become a crowded middleweight division.
The line has already started to move toward Borralho, who opened closer to -170 depending on the book. That feels right to me given the career trajectories of both fighters, but I'd still take Borralho at his current price.
The best line available is -188 at Betway, but I'm keeping half a unit in reserve to bet on Borralho to get this one done inside the distance. That should be fairly attainable with five rounds to work.
Verdict: Caio Borralho undervalued (specific sportsbooks)
Michael Morales (-700) vs. Neil Magny (+500)
In another "gatekeeper vs. potential star" matchup, we have omnipresent welterweight measuring stick Neil Magny taking on undefeated Michael Morales.
Morales is 16-0 overall with four of those wins coming in the UFC, including recent decisions over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. Those are reasonable opponents, but this is still a big step up against Magny.
Magny's 22 UFC wins have him tied for fourth all-time in the UFC, and he's coming off a recent come-from-behind victory over Mike Mallott, another prospect who was a big favorite heading into the bout.
Somehow still "just" 37, Magny isn't in his prime, but he's not exactly washed either.
The line has started to move toward Morales, and it will likely creep that way throughout the week. Morales is a deserving favorite, but this line is outright disrespectful to Magny. We can probably wait until closer to fight time, but I'll be taking a sprinkle on the veteran.
Verdict: Neil Magny undervalued
Viacheslav Borschev (-245) vs. James Llontop (+200)
Viacheslav "Slava Claus" Borshchev is 1-3-1 in his last five fights with a split draw against Nazim Sadykhov. He was dropped and nearly finished by Sadykhov in the second round of that fight, but he won the first and third frames.
That could truthfully go either way in terms of "luck" depending on your perspective. Was he lucky to survive the round, or unlucky to end up with a draw despite winning two rounds? Either way, it hasn't been a great run lately.
James Llontop is 0-1 in the UFC after losing as a big favorite in his debut in April. However, he had three separate opponents at different points leading up to that fight.
Between potential "UFC jitters" in his debut and the revolving door of opponents to prepare for, I'm somewhat willing to look past that performance. Llontop was a well-regarded prospect coming into the Contender Series, and he had a solid performance there.
Given the lines, I'm willing to trust my priors on Llontop here – with the best line +210 at Caesars Sportsbook as of Monday afternoon.
Verdict: James Llontop undervalued
