Check out our UFC props for UFC Vegas 96 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, August 24.
UFC Vegas 96 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. After the preliminary card on ESPN+ (7 p.m. ET), the main card is available on ESPN and ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
With 12 fights, UFC Vegas 96 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for tonight's card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who are clinging to a positive ROI after a recent dry spell. They're looking to get back on track tonight.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 96 odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 96 with our FanDuel promo code!
UFC Vegas 96 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Clint MacLean: Productive Downtime for Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Jacqueline Cavalcanti is finally back after a long layoff, and I personally enjoy targeting young fighters after they take a break from competition. In one year, a 26-year-old with this kind of potential can make massive improvements.
Saturday's opponent for Cavalcanti (-215), fellow bantamweight Josiane Nunes (+180), has been a tough out in the UFC so far, and you have to watch out for that big power. But outside of that, she is at a disadvantage everywhere in this fight.
Cavalcanti is going to be able to do almost whatever she wants in this fight as long as she avoids getting hit on the button. Nunes has a well-known grappling deficiency, and after a year off, I would expect Cavalcanti to have rounded her game out a bit.
To top it all off, Cavalcanti already has some very nasty ground and pound and has a finish on her record from using it. I expect Cavalcanti to get this fight to the ground and either show off some new submission ability or pound her way to a win in which her opponent is harmless.
The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by KO/TKO or Submission (+380 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Quick Way to Neutralize Jose Medina
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a middleweight bout between Zachary Reese (-590) and Jose Medina (+440). I'm not even sure that Reese, a solid prospect, is all that. In fact, this line is far more an indictment of Medina.
With all due respect, Medina is simply nowhere near the level of his peers in the UFC middleweight division, and I'm not sure how he earned a contract following his unanimous decision loss on Dana White's Contender Series. With that in mind, I don't think his stint in this promotion will last long, especially after Reese will (likely) blow through him on Saturday.
Medina's only prominent attribute is his toughness. Besides that, he really doesn't offer all that much in the octagon.
He's never been knocked out across 14 professional MMA bouts, and the guy has taken some legit damage. Reese's team will see this in camp, and when you realize that toughness is Medina's greatest strength, you want to take that away.
How do you do this? By taking the fight to the mat. Reese is obviously known for his power, but he carries a solid jiu-jitsu game with him that is backed by his athleticism.
You can take Medina's durability away on the mat, and that is exactly what I think Reese's game plan will be assuming that he wants to go with an option that increases the probability of getting his opponent out of there as quickly as possible. Reese has two first-round submissions over his past four wins while Medina has tapped in the first round before.
Assuming that Reese's camp acknowledges this very viable path to victory, Reese's first-round submission prop, at +430, is a far more intriguing bet to me than his -600 price on the moneyline.
The Pick: Zachary Reese by submission in Round 1 (+430 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: A Bet for Middleweight's Submission King
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target one side of a two true outcome affair between Gerald Meerschaert (+290) and Edmen Shahbazyan (-360).
Whenever I use the term "two true outcome," I'm basically saying that there are two separate ways that a fight can end more often than not.
This fight, for example, should go one of two ways: Either Shahbazyan finds his usual winning condition (which is also Meerschaert's traditional losing condition) and starts fast with an early knockout, or Meerschaert weathers the initial storm and drags Shahbazyan into the deep waters for a late submission win.
Although I'm very sympathetic to any potential improvements Shahbazyan is making in my backyard of Xtreme Couture, I can't help but go against that bias after running back the tape.
Not only have we yet to see Shahbazyan fight at a proper pace for three full rounds, but the Armenian-American's aggressive nature in both the striking and the grappling departments still appears to be a problem given that he puts himself in some precarious positions.
Couple that with the fact that this fight will be taking place inside the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex facility (which can give a small stylistic edge to superior grapplers), and I'll happily take a flier on the UFC's middleweight submission wins leader in Meerschaert to add another accolade to his resume.
The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert by Submission (+510 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: An Even Juicier Pick for Gerald Meerschaert
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
Full disclosure: My favorite way to bet on this fight is to see if “GM3” survives the first round or two before jumping in on him live. Still, I can’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to make a live bet – or isn’t planning on watching the main card opener of a fairly lackluster UFC card.
Gerald Meerschaert is fighting Edmen Shahbazyan, who’s now 6-4 in the UFC. Shahbazyan has finished five of those wins – four in the first round and one in the second. Prior to joining the UFC, he had an undefeated record comprised entirely of first-round finishes.
In fights that make it past Round 2, he’s 1-3 with the only win coming via split decision. That paints a pretty clear picture of a fighter who’s here for a good time, not a long time.
Which is a stark contrast to Meerschaert, who’s known for come-from-behind victories. Of his 11 UFC wins, four have come via third-round submissions – often in fights he was losing before finding the finish.
That’s a pretty high clip considering the +1800 price tag on this bet. Other alternatives include Meershaert’s Round/decision prop offered by FanDuel, or various same-game parlay options on DraftKings built around Meerschaert late and/or by submission.
