Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady Odds
| 8:55 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady odds for UFC Vegas 97 on Saturday, September 7 – my expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas tonight for an important welterweight main event between No. 6-ranked UFC contender and former title challenger Gilbert Burns and No. 8-ranked Sean Brady.
Burns enters his fourth UFC main event or scheduled five-round fight while Brady will make his first appearance as a promotional headliner. The Philadelphia native did have a fourth-round victory in 2019 when he secured the Cage Fury FC welterweight title.
Brady is 6-1 in the UFC, his lone career loss to current champion Belal Muhammad at UFC 280 (October 2022). Brady has finished three of his six UFC wins and eight of his 17 career victories, including a recent submission of Kelvin Gastelum.
Burns is 15-7 in the UFC with an 8-4 record in the UFC's welterweight division. A former ADCC champion, Burns has finished 15 of his 29 career wins but enters off of a pair of losses: a five-round decision to Muhammad and a third-round knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena while leading on the scorecards.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 97 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Brady and Burns, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET on Saturday evening on ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-7 | 16-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:11 | 12:24 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 171 lbs. | 171 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/20/1986 | 11/23/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.42 | 3.55 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.24 | 3.29 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 57% |
| TD Def | 50% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.2 |
A couple of years ago – maybe even six months ago – I would have picked Gilbert Burns to pull the upset in this UFC Vegas 97 main event.
However, his athleticism is clearly in decline at age 38. He sustained an injury in the first round against Muhammad and melted late in his fight against Della Maddelena (where he led on two of the three judges' scorecards at the time).
As we regularly discuss, when there is at least a seven-year age gap between UFC combatants, the younger fighter is undervalued by as much as 13%, winning 67.4% of the time at average odds of -119, or 54.3% implied.
And it is seemingly this type of age gap – a younger fighter in their prime against a popular but aging veteran – that benefits youth, as opposed to a 30-year-old facing a 23-year-old who is a few years away from their physical prime.
I would have trusted prime Burns to sprawl and brawl his way to victory – or potentially knock out Brady similarly to how Muhammad did. Brady went 0-for-5 on takedown attempts against the current champion before getting finished in the second round by a point fighter (14 of Belal's 17 UFC wins are by decision).
Burns has significantly more power than Muhammad, a striking advantage over Brady, and world-class submission skills. He is also still an effective offensive wrestler (he landed seven of 11 attempts against Della Maddelena), so he can implement his jiu-jitsu against lesser fighters.
Still, I'd expect Brady to initiate the grappling, and Burns' takedown defense (50% career) is much worse than his offensive wrestling. Brady (3.4 attempts per round, 58% accuracy) is the better wrestler in the matchup and an exhausting test for any opponent. Brady will force Burns to engage in a high-paced wrestling match if he can.
Ultimately, Burns set a pace he couldn't maintain against Della Maddalena. Still, Brady has also tired near the end of his three-round fights when forced to wrestle continually – and I'm unsure how his cardio will look in the championship rounds after faltering in what was previously the biggest spot of his career.
I don't trust either fighter's chin, either. Often, two grapplers neutralize or spook one another on the mat and ultimately strike things out longer than you would anticipate; look at Burns' fights against Khamzat Chimaev and Kamau Usman and Sean Brady vs. Belal, for examples.
Burns has the edge in two out of three disciplines (striking and grappling; Brady is the better wrestler), but the latter is a deserving favorite, considering their relative ages and career trajectories.
Burns vs. Brady Pick
I projected Sean Brady as a -188 favorite (65.1% implied win probability) in this matchup and would bet his moneyline at -170 (63% implied) or better.
Brady opened closer to -145 (59.1% implied) but has been in his current price range for the past two weeks.
On average, UFC welterweight bouts end inside the distance 52.5% of the time. I projected the fight to end inside the distance 55.1% of the time (-123 implied odds) and would bet the end inside the distance prop to -115.
In the winning method market, I show value on Brady inside the distance (projected +207, listed +240) and Brady by submission (projected +924, listed +1000).
However, I'd prefer to save those wagers for round-robin tickets; I give Burns (65%) more finishing equity than Brady (50%) as a percentage of their overall win condition.
The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-110 at FanDuel)
