Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva odds for UFC Vegas 97 on Saturday, September 7 – my expert UFC prediction and pick.
The co-main event in Las Vegas tonight features a top-10 women's flyweight affair between Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva.
A perineal contender in two different divisions, Andrade currently finds herself in the mix at 125 pounds. The former UFC strawweight champion has recently overcome some longtime management issues, returning to her winning ways in her last two outings.
Looking to take Andrade's No. 6 ranking is Silva, who is currently undefeated inside of the UFC's octagon at 5-0.
That said, Silva will undoubtedly be up against her toughest test on paper tonight when they clash in the UFC Vegas 97 co-main event.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Andrade | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-12 | 17-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:24 | 11:53 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 124.5 lbs. | 125.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 62" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/25/1991 | 2/3/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.62 | 4.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.37 | 2.10 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.37 | 0.50 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 28% |
| TD Def | 72% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
With both women being well-rounded martial artists, this fight can realistically go a few different ways.
Andrade, who has traditionally been the proverbial bull in the China shop, has been a bit more measured with her pressure since suffering some stoppage losses after winning her strawweight title.
"Bate Estaca" will still unload on her opposition whenever they get between the fence and the inner-black octagon lines, but Andrade attempts to be much more nuanced when looking to pivot her way into slips and shifts through space.
Despite her smaller stature, Andrade also has some underrated leg kicks as her primary range weapons (which were on display in her last outing opposite Marina Rodriguez). Still, it's no secret that Andrade does her best work in closed quarters.
A powerhouse who can piledrive her foes headfirst into the mat, Andrade is ruthless with offensive opportunities whenever they arise. Although she traditionally grounds her opponents along the fence, she's also savvy about turning caught kicks into takedowns in open space.
And once Andrade is on top, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has the ability to rain down hellacious punishment from multiple positions.
Should Silva end up underneath Andrade, then the BJJ purple belt will need to show more urgency from the bottom than she has in previous performances.
Luckily for Silva, the 27-year-old contender appears to be well-trained when it comes to defending takedowns.
Aside from having athletic hips that are hardwired to sprawl, Silva seems to have a solid grasp on counter-wrestling fundamentals that range from tight whizzers to coverage of her opposition's head. And when Silva is able to operate in space, her lighting speed and taekwondo base can come to life in some impressive ways.
Whether Silva flicking front kicks up the centerline or is looking to switch things up off her lead side, the nine-year pro carries some sneaky power to her quick-kicking repertoire.
Silva is also good at counterbalancing said kicks with punches off the same side – something that could come in handy against Andrade.
In fact, Silva's boxing and counters have shown to steadily improve since stepping onto the UFC scene, so don't be surprised to see these two trade in the pocket this Saturday.
Andrade vs. Silva Pick
Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight much loser to pick'em odds, public money has come pouring in on the younger fighter, listing Silva -325 and Andrade +260 as of this writing.
As I always say in my betting breakdowns, seeing MMA gamblers trip over themselves to fade the more proven (but aging) product is sadly nothing new. However, in their defense, I can absolutely see the upside in Silva.
Even when putting all the flash and promotional hype aside, Silva shows the signs of a fighter who can hang around the top of the division for a decent amount of time. If Silva's speed and athleticism continue to allow her strengths to shine on the feet, then no one should be shocked if Andrade dips into a front kick or slips into a head kick while coming forward.
That said, knockouts are a potent two-way street when you're fighting Andrade, and Silva doesn't exactly have the best head movement due to her upright nature.
Add in the fact that Silva tends to play on the backfoot in her opponent's favored kill zone along the fence, and I can't help but like Andrade's chances in the smaller cage (which traditionally favors the superior submission grapplers anyway).
Even though the betting value is undeniably on the underdog in Andrade, I don't deny the potency on the Silva side of the equation.
In fact, if you're searching for a more affordable way to have action on the favorite, then consider playing Silva by knockout (which can be found in the neighborhood of +300) given the potency of her shot selection from a stylistic perspective.
But whether you're not confident on a side or would like to add a potential hedge or bonus, then I suggest looking at the totals and the Under 2.5 rounds at plus money given this matchup's deceptive propensity for violence.
I already bit on the Andrade moneyline at +250 (as anything north of 2-1 is good value), but I still added a total play on the under in case the former champ runs headfirst into a counter.
The Picks: Andrade vs. Silva "Under 2.5 rounds" (+145 at DraftKings) | Andrade (+260 at DraftKings)
