Check out the UFC Vegas 97 odds with our UFC best bets for the Saturday event, which features Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady in the main event.
UFC Vegas 97 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire 12-fight lineup streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with main-card action kicking off at 7 p.m. ET.
The latest UFC Vegas 97 odds show a number of tightly contested bout for this weekend's fight card.
So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 97 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 97 Odds & Best Bets
Billy Ward: Andre Petroski vs. Dylan Budka
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:20 p.m. ET
Andre Petroski caught a lot of flack for his performance in his last fight. He dominated Josh Fremd on the ground for three rounds, racking up more than 12 minutes of control time. However, he landed just 12 significant strikes, and he never really sold out for a finish.
I suspect that’s why the stoppage odds for Petroski (-310) against Dylan Budka (+250) are as long as they are – but they don’t tell the whole story.
Petroski probably needed to play it safe last time since he was coming in on a two-fight losing/knockout skid. One of those was a short-notice stoppage against Michel Pereira, and in the other, he knocked himself out by shooting into Jacob Malkoun’s hip. Losing three straight is bad news regardless of the circumstances.
Prior to that, Petroski had finished three of his first five UFC fights, and he has some of the best grappling at 185 pounds.
Now Petroski gets a massive step down in competition against Budka, who’s 0-1 with a knockout loss. He also looked terrible on the scale after missing weight for the fight.
I expect Petroski to look to make a statement here, picking up another finish against a low-level opponent.
The Pick: Andre Petroski by finish (+230 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Felipe dos Santos vs. Andre Lima
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a flyweight bout between unranked contenders Felipe dos Santos (+136) and Andre Lima (-162). On paper, this should be one of those flyweight fights that brings a ton of energy and action. I also believe the underdog is live in this spot.
While dos Santos narrowly escaped with a split decision victory his last time out against Victor Altamirano, we saw the altitude of Mexico City affect the pace that dos Santos is well known for. That won't be an issue this weekend in Las Vegas.
Prior to that fight, dos Santos lost by decision to a very talented Manel Kape. With all due respect to Lima, he isn't quite on that level.
Lima is 9-0 professionally, and that is the reason that he is priced as a moderate favorite. With that said, he hasn't really beaten anyone worth noting.
His last win came by split decision against Mitch Raposo, who is not in the UFC. Granted, the split was controversial anyway (Lima did handedly win that fight, in my opinion).
Prior to that win, Lima escaped Igor Severino after the latter bit him (you read that correctly) in a fight that Lima was losing. My thought process is that both fighters are going to push the tempo on the feet, and we are going to likely see some great striking exchanges.
Subsequently, I priced this much closer to a pick'em as Lima's 9-0 record is deceiving and dos Santos' pace and aggressive style will benefit him in any toss-up rounds, which is important in a fight that is as wide as -225 to go the distance. If dos Santos was able to keep up with Kape, then I don't really see how he can't at least go toe to toe with Lima, which makes +150 a playable number.
The Pick: Felipe dos Santos (+150 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Sean Zerillo: Cody Durden vs. Matt Schnell
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
The two least fun bets you can make in MMA are: 1) Betting on any fight to go to a decision and, 2) Betting on skilled fighters with deficient chins to not get knocked out.
Matt Schnell is a well-rounded flyweight with excellent boxing, footwork and submission skills, but his chin is compromised – and he fits under the second criterion I listed above.
Schnell has lost via finish in seven of his eight UFC losses (his lone decision defeat was overturned to a no-contest), and he was nearly knocked out several times in his most recent win over Sumudaerji – which is the most exciting fight I have ever seen live.
Still, Schnell (+220) is at the same moneyline pricepoint against Cody Durden (-270) as he was against Sumudaerji, Brandon Royval and Alex Perez – and Durden is taking the fight:
- Six weeks after a nasty knockout loss (July 20) against Bruno Silva
- On less than one week's notice
- With his wife as his only corner
Moreover, while Durden does have power – and can clip Schnell with an overhand – he's a pressure-oriented wrestler whose style has not benefitted from the increased scoring emphasis on damage. And if I could handpick a fighting style to give Schnell the best chance of surviving, it would probably be Durden's.
Implementing a wrestling-heavy game plan over 15 minutes is exhausting on a full camp, let alone on short notice. And if Durden tries to strike things out and hunt for a performance bonus against Schnell's chin, he could get picked apart by a far more technical striker.
I suspect Schnell's odds are longer than they should be because it is always ugly when he loses, but a knockout loss counts just the same as a split-decision robbery.
I projected Schnell as a 37.5% underdog (+167 implied) and would bet his moneyline to +182 (35.5%) or better.
The Pick: Matt Schnell (+250 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
For Saturday's UFC Vegas 97 event, I'm taking a bit of a scatter-shot approach to my betting card. I've got a lot of betting angles I like – but not a whole lot I love.
But among my most likable plays is one for the main event of Gilbert Burns (+154) vs. Sean Brady (-185).
If you want a full primer on that five-round welterweight clash, check out Sean Zerillo's Burns vs. Brady betting preview.
However, I'm going to focus on one aspect that Sean aptly pointed out: It's hard to trust either fighter's chin. And when you have two skilled grapplers, the action often finds its way back to the feet, where there are more opportunities for a flash finish.
Ultimately, I think Burns' age (38) and the nature of his recent losses (three of his past five via KO), coupled with Brady's questionable cardio and lack of 25-minute experience, could open the door for a stoppage for either headliner.
That's why I'm taking the easy route and betting that Burns vs. Brady doesn't go to decision. Sean projected the fight to end by finish 55.1% of the time (-123). I estimate it closer to 60% (-150).
Either way, getting coin-flip odds on a bet that should cash 55-60% of the time gives us an opportunity for a prudent, exciting and hopefully profitable end to the night.
The Pick: Burns vs. Brady doesn't go to decision (-110 at FanDuel)
