Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with early UFC Vegas 97 predictions for Saturday, September 7, with overvalued and undervalued fighters heading into the Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady event.
UFC Vegas 97 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The full 12-fight fight card streams on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with the five-fight main card commencing at 7 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 97 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 97 Predictions With Luck Ratings
Sean Brady (-185) vs. Gilbert Burns (+154)
After challenging Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title in 2021, Gilbert Burns is 3-3 in the UFC with losses to Khamzat Chimaev, Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena.
Those were star-making wins for each of those opponents with Muhammad earning the title shot following a win over Gilbert Burns.
The UFC seems like they want to create one more welterweight contender by virtue of defeating Burns, who's nearing the end at 38 years old.
This time it's Sean Brady's turn. The 31-year-old is 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to now-champion Belal Muhammad. Brady has had a hard time staying healthy in recent years, but he's currently the No. 8-ranked UFC contender at welterweight and should be considered part of the title picture with a win against Burns.
The line opened close to a pick'em with plenty of money coming in on Brady since. I'm a bit worried about the five-round experience edge Burns holds, but Brady should be able to cover that with his considerable athletic edge at this point in their careers.
Grab Brady while the price is still reasonable. DraftKings has the best line at -185.
Verdict: Sean Brady undervalued
Trevor Peek (-118) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (-102)
After opening at -110 both ways, money has started to come in on the side of Trevor Peek for his main-card attraction with Yanal Ashmouz.
Peek is 2-2 in the UFC with a Performance of the Night winner in his debut – followed by three relatively boring grappling-heavy fights. While it's not the most fan-friendly adjustment, that grappling should come in handy against Ashmouz.
Ashmouz is a dangerous striker who picked up a big KO in his UFC debut, and he was then controlled on the ground for large stretches of his follow-up fight.
I like Peek here, both due to the line movement and the styles at play. Grab him now at DraftKings, since his line has gone as high as -140 already at other sportsbooks.
Verdict: Trevor Peek undervalued (at DraftKings)
Andre Lima (-185) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+154)
This fight has also seen plenty of early line movement with Felipe Dos Santos opening as a slight favorite and now a considerable underdog.
This time I don't agree with the movement. Andre Lima is 2-0 in the UFC, but he has a disqualification win (his opponent bit him) in a fight he was arguably losing, and he has a split decision over Mitch Raposo (0-3 across fights in the UFC, Contender Series and The Ultimate Fighter). Plus, he missed weight by four pounds in the fight against Raposo.
Dos Santos is 1-1 in the promotion but fought Manel Kape on short notice in his debut and arguably took the third round in a decision loss. He followed that up with a split decision of his own, but that puts his resume on equal footing with Lima.
There's probably no rush on making the bet, given the action coming in on Lima. But keep an eye on the situation and try to catch the best price possible if it starts to swing back.
Verdict: Felipe Dos Santos undervalued
