Check out our UFC props for UFC Vegas 97 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, September 7.
UFC Vegas 97 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
With 12 fights, UFC Vegas 97 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for tonight's card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who are ROI-positive to date but getting hungry for another score.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 97 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 97 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 97 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Tony Sartori: A Bet on Boredom
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a middleweight bout between Andre Petroski (-325) and Dylan Budka (+260). This play is purely a fade of Petroski, who I don't think should be laying -258 against anyone.
Petroski can wrestle, but he brings a boring style that doesn't typically appeal to judges' scoring styles and features a low output of activity. I suppose you could say the same of Budka, but that is why I think it's worth taking a flier on someone with a similar boring style who isn't that much worse.
Due to these styles, the fight is as wide as -162 to reach the judges' scorecards (with even shorter odds before Budka missed weight). I think Budka is capable of stealing the fight from a marginally better Petroski.
I especially believe this when you consider that Budka is nine years younger (better for cardio) and also possesses a two-inch reach advantage when the fight takes place on the feet.
At the end of the day, this is going to be a wrestling clinic between two below-average middleweights. Should Petroski win that battle? Yes, but at 5/1, it is simply worth a flier that Budka is more active and steals a victory on the scorecards.
The Pick: Dylan Budka by Decision (+500 at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Queen of Ugly Decisions Returns
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
Unless you have a very, very good reason, there's really no reason any fighter should be comfortably favored at -300 odds in a UFC women's fight.
We know that women's bouts tend to go to decision more often than fights in the men's divisions. We also know that officials seem to struggle to consistently and accurately judge these women's fights, even when the stats seem to suggest an obvious or worthy winner. How many split and majority decisions – and robberies – have we seen over the years?
Some fighters thrive in this world of stupid MMA judging. Enter Vanessa Demopoulos.
Demopoulos, a former LFA champ who failed in her Contender Series audition, nonetheless made her way to the UFC and is a remarkable 5-2 in the promotion since then. It's a commendable record. It's a testament to her toughness. However, she could (perhaps "should") arguably be 2-4 in those fights.
On Saturday's UFC Vegas 96 prelims, Demopoulos (+250) faces Jaqueline Amorim (-310), a fast starter who will likely become decreasingly effective if this fight leaves the first round. Amorim has entered the second round just twice in nine fights, going 1-1 with a decision loss to Sam Hughes under the UFC banner in those bouts.
And that's where the scrappy, gritty and hard-to-judge Demopoulos could shine in her element.
Although we missed some value available earlier in the week, I'm still bullish on the underdog. In addition to a moneyline play on Demopoulos, I'm also taking a flier on her to win via decision as my official MMA Prop Squad pick.
The Pick: Vanessa Demopoulos by decision (+500 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Juicy Bet on Point Deduction
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
Andre Lima is probably best known for winning his UFC debut via disqualification when his opponent bit him – then promptly getting the bite mark tattooed on him. After watching some tape on him this week, I can almost understand why his opponent did it.
In Lima’s next fight, he missed weight by four pounds, poked his opponent in the eye thrice, and grabbed the fence at least once to prevent a takedown.
This being MMA, Lima got a “hard warning” after the second eye-poke, but somehow still didn’t lose a point. That’s the frustrating part of this bet: We might be directionally correct in predicting some cheating, but still not get the rule enforced.
Still, at 20-1 odds, it’s worth a sprinkle that we get some intervention from a referee this time around. Lima's opponent, Felipe dos Santos (+136), is likely to try to wrestle Lima (-162), which should provide plenty of opportunities for blatant fence grabs.
On top of that, dos Santos' camp likely has mentioned Lima’s past indiscretions to the officials, which hopefully has them a bit more vigilant this time around.
The Pick: Felipe dos Santos vs. Andre Lima – point to be deducted (+2000 at DraftKings)
Clint MacLean: Here Comes Mr. Improved
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Chris Padilla is a fun story. He was brought in with no expectations and pulled off a big upset in his UFC debut against James Llontop.
Padilla likes to explode and drag people to the mat, but he doesn't really have the technical skill to keep them down there.
His UFC Vegas 97 opponent, Rong Zhu (-250), is returning to the UFC after gaining some vital experience for a 24-year-old, and I expect him to show off some big improvements here against Padilla (+205).
Zhu will have the advantage striking, and he is getting better every time we see him. The UFC is very clearly pushing the "Road to UFC" competitors like Zhu, and I believe that this fight is set up to be a showcase for his second UFC run.
When Padilla gets hurt on the feet, he will look to explode and shoot – and that is when Zhu will take advantage. I am calling for the club and sub!
The Pick: Rong Zhu by submission (+650 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Knockout Bet for Main Event
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target the main event on ESPN+ between Gilbert Burns (+154) and Sean Brady (-185).
Although there's a decent argument to be had about who should be favored, there should be little argument over the fact that the knockout is Burns' most potent pathway to victory.
As the adage in MMA goes: Whenever two skilled grapplers go at it, you often end up with a striking match.
And if Burns vs. Brady sees both fighters neutralize the other's grappling as I suspect, then I see some glaring stylistic holes in the American's game that could cost him opposite a potent pocket puncher such as "Durinho."
Not only has Brady's patent left hook traditionally left him open to rear-handed counters whenever overthrowing said punch, but Burns has been able to land emphatic counter right hands in both victory and defeat.
If Brady can't wrestle Burns early and often, then I suspect that he continues to struggle with fighters whom he can't comfortably take down.
I can't remember who killed Mr. Burns on The Simpsons, but I know it wasn't Sean Brady.
Give me Burns by knockout.
The Pick: Gilbert Burns by KO (+450 at FanDuel)
