Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira Odds
| 9 p.m. ET | |
Check out the Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira odds for UFC Vegas 98 on Saturday, October 12, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The UFC will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas today for an important flyweight main event and potential title eliminator between No. 1-ranked UFC contender and former title challenger Brandon Royval and No. 5-ranked Tatsuro Taira, one of the more intriguing 125-pound prospects in the sport.
After losing a title bout to Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 296 this past December, Royval (7-3 in the UFC) bounced back with a split-decision win over Brandon Moreno in February. Saturday's bout will mark his third consecutive five-round fight, and he hopes to secure another title shot with a victory.
Taira is 6-0 in the UFC and entering his second consecutive main event, but he's never seen a fourth round in his professional career. At age 24, he's the youngest ranked UFC flyweight by five years (Steve Erceg is 29) and potentially the only one on the right side of the divisional age curve.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Royval vs. Taira, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday night on ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Royval | Taira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-7 | 16-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:35 | 9:36 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 125.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/16/1992 | 1/27/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| SS Accuracy | 36% | 65% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.47 | 2.35 |
| TD Acc | 60% | 47% |
| TD Def | 40% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 2.1 |
Taira is eight years younger than Royval, and as I regularly mention, the younger fighter is often undervalued in these matchups with that large of an age discrepancy. When there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 68.4% of the time at average odds of -123 (55.3% implied), more than 13% above expectation.
Royval has faced higher-level competition – with a 3-3 record against current or former champions or title challengers. At the same time, Taira lost the lone completed round on all three scorecards against his only ranked opponent.
That said, I thought Alex Perez (whom I bet) was a more difficult matchup for Taira than Royval. Perez carries more power in his hands than Royval, offers much better defensive wrestling (77% vs. 40% career takedown defense), and more competence in getting back to his feet after takedowns.
I'd expect Taira to have an easier time landing takedowns and consolidating control against Royval – a jiu-jitsu and muay Thai practitioner who is often too happy to fight off his back – rather than a JUCO All-American wrestler like Perez.
I'd also expect Taira to use his wrestling from the outset and look to find his way to Royval's back, where he can control rounds for extended stretches if not finish the fight. Taira's blend of size and technique is effective; he uses his long limbs to tie up opponents on the ground. And he's excellent at transitioning to the back, whether on the mat or standing, a position Royval often concedes – which can be the end of the round for many fighters.
Royval is the better offensive striker than Taira (+1.5 strike differential per minute) and offers substantially more volume (7.2 strikes landed per minute), especially if he can keep this fight standing in the fourth and fifth rounds. While Royval doesn't carry single-strike power, he can put attritional damage on opponents, and Taira's striking defense (47%) is the weak link in his skill set.
As a result, I'd live bet Royval after Round 3 if he's won one of the first three rounds. And if you think he can avoid getting finished, Royval's point spread at +5.5 (+120) is appealing.
I'd favor Taira much more heavily in a three-round fight; Royval has proven to be a better fighter over 25 minutes than 15, and we've never seen Taira in a fourth round.
Still, while we don't have evidence concerning Taira's 25-minute cardio, he's managed his gas tank well across three-round fights and hasn't shown any significant cardio concerns in his career. If he can find Royval's back and relax, he shouldn't have to exert himself too early.
Taira may also find opportunities to grapple without a traditional takedown through Royval's wild, button-mashing style: off a caught kick, an overextension on a punch, or a slip on a spinning attempt.
Still, if he struggles to initiate the grappling or Royval can repeatedly stand back up, Taira may tire in the second half of this fight. However, I don't trust Royval's strength or physicality to resist Taira's grappling early – as I did with Perez – and I think Taira gets to the positions he wants when both men are fresh.
Royval vs. Taira Pick
I projected Tatsuro Taira as a -238 favorite (70.4% implied) in this matchup, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. I'd want at least +262 (27.6% implied) or higher to bet Royval (projected +238, 29.6% implied).
Considering the hype surrounding Taira, the line may get there on fight day.
I also projected this fight to reach a decision nearly 46% of the time (+118 implied) and would consider betting the Over 4.5 Rounds at plus money or the goes-to decision prop to +125.
I do think Taira's finishing equity is a touch overvalued here; if he's -300 (75% implied) on the moneyline and his finish prop is +100 (50% implied), that's 66.7% of his win condition by finish, compared to 33.3% for his decision prop at +300 (25% implied). However, I set Taira's splits closer to 40% by decision and 60% by finish (with divisional splits closer to 55% by decision and 45% by finish).
Bet Taira by decision (projected +255, listed +300 at FanDuel) at +280 or better for small stakes. Of the two fighters, Taira is likelier to get an early lead and win a potential 10-8 round with dominant grappling.
However, regardless of your pre-fight position, I'd look for a live bet on Royval's moneyline.
Zerillo's Picks: Fight Goes to Decision (+138 at BetRivers) | Tatsuro Taia Wins by Decision (+300 at FanDuel) | Brandon Royval Live After Round 3
