Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park Odds
Check out the Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park odds for UFC Vegas 98 on Saturday, October 12, with my expertpick and prediction.
This weekend's UFC co-headliner in Las Vegas features a rebooked middleweight bout between Brad Tavares and Jun Yong Park.
These two were initially slated to fight back in July, but a failed medical clearance at weigh-ins (from Park's side) prevented the contest from happening.
Tavares, who is the most-tenured member of the UFC roster at 185 pounds, should get a lot more respect than he does considering that his sort of longevity is fairly rare in today's UFC.
That said, the vet has been struggling to stay consistent as of late and is in need of a turnaround this weekend.
Standing in the Hawaiian's way is the increasingly popular "Iron Turtle," who could easily be on a five-fight winning streak if he weren't on the wrong end of a suspect split decision to Andre Muniz in his most recent outing.
Let's dig in with my Tavares vs. Park preview and breakdown.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Tavares | Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-10 | 17-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:49 | 11:29 |
| Height | 6'1" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/21/1987 | 2/27/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.38 | 4.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.78 | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 50% |
| TD Def | 81% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.1 |
I know I use the term "well-rounded" a lot, but there really is no better descriptor for both competitors in this UFC Vegas 98 co-main event.
A Korean workhorse who embodies a similar approach to the warships he's named after, Park is not afraid to mix it up as one of the smaller middleweights on the UFC roster.
Working behind a steady dose of jabs, Park prefers to prod his way into the pocket, where his punches start to count for more. Once he closes into clinch space, he's not shy about looking for takedowns and other forms of transitional offense.
Park is also an excellent operator from the top position and has little issue when it comes to pressing any potential advantages that become apparent there.
That said, taking down someone like Tavares could be more difficult than meets the eye.
Aside from having a takedown defense rating that's north of 80%, Tavares displays excellent balance and counter-wrestling instincts to boot. Seldom will you see Tavares throw himself out of position, which is why it usually takes top-shelf athletes to get the jump on him.
Akin to Park, Tavares also favors flowing his offense behind an active jab.
Although Tavares is much less aggressive with his approach, the 36-year-old Hawaiian is better about incorporating more feints and low kicks into the equation.
Tavares also has some underrated counterpunching, but leaning too heavily into his vaunted durability has become an increasingly troublesome tightrope for The Ultimate Fighter veteran to walk at this point of his career.
Tavares vs. Park Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are still siding with the younger fighter, listing Park -200 and Tavares +163 as of this writing.
As is sadly the case with rebooked fights that initially stay alive long enough to take action, the bookmakers are always going to choke up on the proverbial grip of the price the second time around by inflating their openers accordingly.
It's important to note that I have an undeniable bias when it comes to picking a side in this matchup given my relationship with Tavares' training camp and corner. However, I stand by what I believe to be a fair and accurate analytical breakdown of both parties (as I'm a big fan of Park, as well).
Regardless of which side you're favoring, I think that the totals department (despite the unfortunate price hikes) is still the safest way to play this fight.
Although I don't disagree with Park being favored, his price tag has arguably been pushed into parlay territory – so why not kick for coverage with the Over 2.5 rounds total option?
Aside from Tavares being more skilled and lively than given credit for, the Hawaiian's counter-wrestling and shot selection could stymie a lot of Park's offense from a stylistic perspective.
Not only has Park struggled with the few fighters who have actually tried to jab him, but the Korean's boxing-centric stance also invites the calf kicks that Tavares loves to throw.
Add in the fact that freakishly athletic knockout artists have been the traditional kryptonite when it comes to stopping Tavares, and we could be in for 15 minutes of jab trades that play out too close for comfort regardless of whom you're on.
For that reason, I recommend using the Over 2.5 rounds in this fight as a parlay piece. I'm pondering a potential pairing with Clayton Carpenter (-200 at FanDuel) to get into the plus-money range for overall +108 parlay odds on Thursday.
There's not a ton of parlay fodder on this card given how well-matched it is, but totals like this are probably as close as you're gonna get to a "safe bet" this Saturday.
The Pick: Tavares vs. Park Over 2.5 rounds (-260 at FanDuel)
