Check out the latest UFC Vegas 98 odds with our expert best bets for the Saturday, October 15, event.
UFC Vegas 98: Royval vs. Taira takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
So where should you look to place your UFC Vegas 98 bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present betting value. Our best bets include a pair of moneyline picks, as well as a game prop and point-spread play.
You can find their analysis and top picks and predictions for those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 98 odds for matchups as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 98 Odds & Best Bets
Tony Sartori: Julia Polastri vs. Cory McKenna
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
With the Julia Polastri (-130) vs. Cory McKenna prelim (+110), the steam is heavily on McKenna, who opened as the underdog at +136 and has since been bet down to her current price tag.
I agree with the steam, and I think Polastri is overvalued in this spot. The main argument for Polastri and her 1-2 UFC record is that those two losses came against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Josefine Knutsson, two very talented fighters.
However, I would counter that, while those aren't bad losses by any means, her only win over that stretch came against a non-UFC name in Patricia Alujas on Dana White's Contender Series. By comparison, McKenna has three UFC victories under her belt, one of which came by the ever-rare Von Flue choke.
I just don't think Polastri has done anything to warrant this line, which is why it has crashed toward a pick'em. Yes, she won the LFA strawweight belt prior to her DWCS win over Alujas, but that fight was for the vacant title against Brenda Gottig, who has just nine professional MMA bouts and has lost two of her past three.
Saturday's fight is -455 to go to decision, which is yet another reason why I don't like Polastri in this spot. In her decision loss to Knutsson, Polastri was largely inactive and was going with the approach of "laying on top while doing no damage."
That is a dying way of winning in today's MMA, which now rewards damage more than control time. Not that McKenna is going to bring any of that damage into the equation either, but her experience and submission game make me believe that there are more avenues to victory for the underdog against someone who is likely bringing a limited game plan to the octagon.
The Pick: Cory McKenna (+112 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
I’ve been on Pat Sabatini all week, taking him (at a much worse price) early in the week in my UFC Luck Ratings.
That left me in a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, it feels like a bad sign when a bet moves against me, especially this much. On the other hand, if I liked him at +118, I must love him at +160.
In sports with more efficient markets, my intuition would be that I got this one wrong. MMA is not an efficient market, though, and I could buy a private island with all of the unrealized CLV I’ve accrued over the years if that were legal tender.
Which means I’m trusting my gut here. Sabatini (+154) is a former Division I wrestler and elite submission grappler who has a highly suspect chin. Jonathan Pearce (-185) is a pure wrestler who’s never landed a knockdown in the UFC.
I’ll take the more well-rounded grappler every day of the week when there isn’t much to worry about on the feet, which seems to be the case here. Especially at solidly plus money odds.
The Pick: Pat Sabatini (+160 at BetMGM)
Sean Zerillo: Alex Morono vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
The UFC Vegas 98 main card kicks off with Alex Morono (+180) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-218).
These two fighters have seen the scorecards in 21 of 33 UFC bouts (63.6%) combined (seven of 12 for Rodriguez and 14 of 21 for Morono) and have been finished in only four of their 11 UFC losses (36.4%).
Rodriguez, who enters on a three-fight losing skid, has the better hardware of the pair; he's the larger athlete (2" taller, 2" reach advantage) with experience at middleweight, the harder puncher, and the more durable man.
Morono is both younger and quicker and has the grappling upside, too. Still, I'd expect Rodriguez (56% career takedown defense) to be able to use his physicality to keep this fight standing; Morono isn't a proactive or effective wrestler (0.36 attempts per 15 minutes, 26% accuracy), but he does have an excellent top game.
Both fighters play the distance striking game relatively cautiously (56% and 57% striking defense). While I don't view either as exceptionally durable in their mid- and late-30s, neither is a particularly potent finisher.
If Morono decides to brawl with Rodriguez in the pocket, he can get clipped, but I'd expect him to stay on the outside, use his speed, movement, and technique, and play matador with his opponent.
Rodriguez will likely be the fighter pressing forward but will use his length to stay just out of Morono's range. At the same time, however, he might also be too slow to track Morono's movements and land offense.
If Rodriguez can land leg kicks early and slow Morono's footwork, I'd be more concerned about my wager. A finish only occurs in this matchup if Morono has to stand and exchange blow for blow with a more powerful striker.
Still, Rodriguez is often too reliant on his boxing and head-hunting rather than mixing up his attacks.
I projected this welterweight fight to reach a decision 66.7% of the time (-200 implied odds), far higher than the divisional average of 48%. Bet the distance prop to -190.
The Pick: Morono vs. Rodriguez Goes to Decision (-155 at ESPN Bet)
Dann Stupp: Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
I first met Brad Tavares 15 years ago, when the little-known 5-0 pro fighter joined The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality TV cast and wrote a weekly blog about the show for the MMA news site I ran.
Since then, the Hawaiian slugger has evolved from MMA prospect to UFC regular to UFC contender to his current role as a respected and proven gatekeeper of the 185-pound division.
Lately, a lot of rising contenders have found their way through that gate, but in Saturday's UFC Vegas 98 co-main event, 36-year-old Tavares (+164) gets a somewhat favorable matchup against 33-year-old Jun Yong Park (-198).
If this fight stays standing (and I think it will), Tavares should be the more active and effective striker. He's got some of the division's best takedown defense, and if Tavares can get his calf kicks going early, he should further neutralize Park's most likely path to victory on the feet.
I don't think "The Iron Turtle" has the type of KO power to put away Tavares, and even if the underdog gets wobbled, Tavares rarely deviates from his game plan. Plus, if he's taken to the mat, Tavares has never been submitted, and he's not content riding out rounds from his back.
That's why I like a small on the Tavares moneyline – but I especially like the +3.5 point spread bet (-150) at DraftKings. With the point spread, we add up the final scorecards and then apply the spread (if your fighter gets a stoppage, your bet is an automatic winner). Barring any 10-8 rounds or point deductions, that means Tavares simply needs to win at least one round for our bet to cash. A few years ago, not even (now UFC champion) Dricus du Plessis could sweep Tavares on the scorecards – and Park is no DDP.
I don't mind a sprinkle on the Tavares moneyline, but I really like that +3.5 spread bet as our primary angle for this fight. With the fight lined -210 (67.7% likelihood) to go to decision, we're likely to see the scorecards, and I have faith that the battle-tested Tavares can squeeze out a round or two on Saturday night.
The Pick: Brad Tavares +3.5 point spread (-150 at DraftKings)
