Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with early UFC Vegas 98 predictions for Saturday, October 12, and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the event.
UFC Vegas 98 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and this weekend's entire fight card streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 98 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 98 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Tatsuro Taira (-218) vs. Brandon Royval (+180)
The UFC Vegas 98 card is filled mostly with the kind of mid-level matchups we've come to expect on a post-PPV weekend. However, the main event features what should be a fun and impactful flyweight matchup between top contenders.
The UFC's 125-pound division is desperately in need of legitimate contenders. Champion Alejandre Pantoja has two wins each against the two highest-ranked fighters in the division: Brandons Moreno and Royval.
No. 5-ranked Taira could fill that need with a win over the former title challenger. He's 6-0 in the UFC with four finishes, and he is still just 24 years old.
The only thing working against Taira here is this has the potential to be the first time he goes five rounds. He was in the main event for his last fight, but it ended it in the second round.
If I had to pick a side now, it would be Taira even at the price, but it's about right. I'll be holding out for better than -200 or waiting for his -5.5 point spread line before jumping in myself.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Jun Young Park (-192) vs. Brad Tavares (+160)
The line on the UFC Vegas 98 co-main event has already started to move, with Jun Young Park opening at -170 on DraftKings late last week.
He had his four-fight winning streak snapped by Andre Muniz by split decision his last time out, in a fight in which Muniz landed 11 takedowns but did next to nothing with them (only 14 significant strikes all fight and zero official submission attempts.)
Park probably doesn't have to worry about that against Brad Tavares, who averages less than a takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC. The once iron-chinned Tavares has been knocked out twice over the past 18 months with a 1-3 record in his past four fights.
That win was against 39-year-old Chris Weidman, who was coming back from a devastating leg injury, so it doesn't instill much confidence in Tavares.
Park is still -170 at Caesars, but that line is sure to be gone soon. Grab it if you can.
Verdict: Jun Yong Park undervalued (at Caesars)
Jonathan Pearce (-130) vs. Pat Sabatini (+110)
After a five-fight winning streak through 2022, Jonathan Pearce has now lost back-to-back fights in the UFC, and he's quickly gone from "possible prospect" to "potentially cut" in a short period of time.
Which is a familiar arc to Pat Sabatini, who started 4-0 in the UFC but is 1-2 across his past three. He's probably not in danger of being cut, but he needs a win to work his way back into the discussion of ranked featherweights.
Both of Sabatini's losses were quick knockouts, to Diego Lopes and Damon Jackson. The Lopes loss has aged incredibly well given Lopes' performances since then; the Jackson loss could be written off as a lucky punch. That also came with some extenuating circumstances as Jackson had suffered a loss in the family that week and came out uncharacteristically aggressive.
More importantly, Pearce has never landed a UFC knockdown, so probably can't access the kryptonite needed to beat Sabatini. Pearce is primarily a wrestler, which could work against him given Sabatini's elite submission ability.
After opening at +130, the best current line on the Renzo Gracie Philly product is +118 at Caesars, but I'd be happy anywhere I can get plus money.
Verdict: Pat Sabatini undervalued
Cody Haddon (-185) vs. Dan Argueta (+154)
Dan Argueta is officially 0-1 in his past three fights. That's a confusing statement, but he has two no-contests in the span. One was originally a submission win – except his opponent didn't tap. Referee Keith Peterson pulled on the hand of Ronnie Lawrence, whose reaction to having his arm pulled looked (vaguely) like a tapping motion.
After that, Argueta dropped a decision to Miles Johns, which was overturned due to Johns failing a PED test. The athletic commission then overturned Johns' suspension, with his levels falling short of an illegal range.
A confusing situation, no doubt, but the short version is Argueta has one UFC win in five walks to the cage.
Haddon is a recent Contender Series signee whose skills I was high on going into that bout. Similarly to the Sabatini-Pearce matchup, he has the submission skills to counteract the wrestling from Argueta.
We're paying a considerably heavier price, but that's due to the considerably better striking from Haddon. I'll take that at -185 at BetMGM or DraftKings.
