Check out our UFC predictions for UFC Vegas 98 with our favorite long-shot prop picks for Saturday, October 12.
UFC Vegas 98, which features a Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira flyweight main event, takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The full event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
With 12 fights, UFC Vegas 98 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has a handful they like for today's card. Check out their 4 juicy UFC predictions below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 98 odds for matchups as of Saturday. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Predictions & Props
Tony Sartori: +540 Submission Flier in Curtain-Jerker
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:05 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC card kicks off with a flyweight bout between unranked contenders Clayton Carpenter (-230) and Lucas Rocha (+190). The steam is heavily on Carpenter, who opened as a -143 favorite before he was bet up north of the two-dollar mark.
First, I want to dive into this line movement. These are two very strong flyweight prospects whom I expect to make some noise in the 125-pound division.
At first glance, this fight should be closer to a pick'em. So, why is the steam so heavily on Carpenter?
Simply put, this is a bad matchup for Rocha. The underdog should fare well in the UFC, but more so in fights that will stay on the feet.
He blew up the regional scene and is now 17-1 with 10 knockout wins. Rocha subsequently earned a shot on Dana White's Contender Series, where he knocked out Davi Bittencourt with a second-round knee.
However, Rocha was also taken down five times in that fight, which is a concern. Specifically, that is going to play into this fight against Carpenter, who went 3-for-6 on takedowns in his own DWCS bout.
Part of the MMA Lab team, Carpenter will be well-prepped for this fight and will likely take advantage of those takedowns that are seemingly achievable against Rocha. If this fight does get to the mat, which I think it will, then +540 is far too good of a price to pass up on the favorite to win by submission.
Three of Carpenter's seven professional wins have come by submission, and while Rocha has never tapped, he is just 24 and still extremely raw. Yes, he's fought in far more pro fights than Carpenter, but the majority of those were on the regional scene.
Now he goes against a guy in Carpenter, who already has a submission victory in the UFC and trains with a more experienced team. So, in a fight where Carpenter will likely shoot and land some takedowns to avoid Rocha's power, +540 is a great flier to take on the favorite to win by submission.
The Pick: Clayton Carpenter by Submission (+540 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: "Bang Bang" Goes Night-Night at +1500
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Chidi Njokuani is a big man at 170 pounds. He successfully made his welterweight weight cut in his last fight, but he won a lackluster split decision over Rhys McKee, who frankly hasn't shown that he belongs at this level yet.
Njokuani (-166) has struggled in the past against strong grapplers who can push a pace, and while we haven't seen Jared Gooden (+140) do that in the UFC, it is something he is fully capable of.
I am betting on the fight IQ and game planning of Gooden here. If he knows what he is up against with Chidy "Bang Bang," he will put his Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials to work and take the tall man down.
Once Njokuani is on the mat and once he gets tired, he is a shell of himself.
Gooden is coming off an upset in which he submitted a Teixeira MMA BJJ black belt, and if he can do that, then he can submit Chidi.
The official pick is Gooden by submission at +1500 (and if you want to get spicy, sprinkle on Gooden via Round-2 submission at +4500 and via Round-submission at +5000 too).
The Pick: Jared Gooden by Submission (+1500 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: Mr. Opportunity by Stoppage at +480
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a preliminary attraction between Jonathan Pearce (-185) and Pat Sabatini (+154).
I'm not surprised to see Pearce installed as the favorite, but this fight feels a lot closer to a pick'em given the potent styles match at play.
Sure, Pearce is the more durable and volume-oriented striker on the feet, but I'm not sure that "JSP" is a potent enough striker to replicate some of the weird stoppages that have occurred in Sabatini's career.
Pearce is also among the most willing wrestlers in the division, which could be problematic when facing a Brazilian jiu-jitsu and sambo specialist like Sabatini.
Not only is Sabatini a strong wrestler with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and Pan-American accolades alike, but the Philly native is also a proven opportunist who can snatch leglock submissions from all sorts of positions.
Add in the fact that Pearce has a propensity to put his neck in precarious places, and I can't help but take a shot on the superior submission fighter in the smaller octagon (which encourages the kind of fight that Sabatini loves to have) to find a finish before the final bell.
The Pick: Pat Sabatini by Finish (+480 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Massive Value on +410 Dawson Prop
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Earlier in the week, Grant Dawson’s submission line posted at +440 at BetRivers, the first book to open up finishing-method markets for the fight. I thought it was a typo.
Dawson has finished more than 60% of his pro wins by submission, including four of nine in the UFC. He’s a pure grappler, whose plans A, B, and C all involve getting his opponent to the ground, taking their back, and locking in a rear-naked choke.
He’s also a -360 favorite this weekend against Rafa Garcia (+285). While Garcia has never been finished, he’s 4-3 in the UFC and probably a step down from some of the past opponents Dawson has fought (and submitted).
That means Dawson is north of 80% to win the fight. Even using his UFC submission rate of 44% rather than his career rate, that still works out to about a 35% chance he picks up a submission here.
Which means this line should be closer to +200 than +400. That’s massive value, even though we aren’t getting as strong of a number as was posted earlier in the week. I’ll take that every day.
The Pick: Grant Dawson by Submission (+410 at FanDuel)
