Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira Odds
| 9 p.m. ET | |
Check out the Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira odds for UFC Vegas 99 on Saturday, October 19, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The UFC will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for an important middleweight main event between No. 14-ranked UFC contender Michael Pereira and No. 13 Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez.
Pereira is 9-2 in the UFC, including a 3-0 record at middleweight, but he could be undefeated; his losses include a disqualification (illegal strike) against Diego Sanchez and a close decision against Tristan Connelly. Pereira has earned performance bonuses in four consecutive fights, but he's never been past the 15-minute mark in his pro career.
Hernandez enters on a five-fight winning streak with a 6-2-1 record and two performance bonuses in the UFC. He also has five-round experience – winning a 2018 LFA title fight against current No. 8 UFC middleweight Brendan Allen. Both of his losses came by finish (submitted by Markus Perez, TKO loss to Kevin Holland). His no-contest was originally a knockout win that was overturned due to a failed marijuana test.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Hernandez vs. Pereira, who should make their cage walks at approximately 8:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday night on ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Hernandez | Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2 | 31-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:48 | 9:47 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/18/1993 | 10/6/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.30 | 5.16 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.46 | 3.70 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.62 | 1.53 |
| TD Acc | 49% | 55% |
| TD Def | 63% | 94% |
| Submission Avg | 3.0 | 0.8 |
Despite a two-inch reach disadvantage and his previous competition at welterweight, Pereira is the bigger, more muscular, and more physically imposing athlete in this matchup.
The Brazilian is also the superior distance striker (+1.6 to -1.3 strike differential per minute at a distance). He has shown excellent takedown defense (denied 17 of 18 attempts) and used nasty choke techniques to finish his fights.
Pereira can be a wild man at times – he seems like an entertainer at heart – which can lead to some wild moments in the octagon:
Michel Pereira is a MADMAN 🤣
Expect to see more backflips at #UFCVegas99 on Saturday! pic.twitter.com/HGJyrv71r5
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) October 17, 2024
Pereira should have lost a point for the above sequence (illegal knee to a grounded opponent) – and that type of recklessness has cost him fights in the past (DQ loss to Sanchez).
Pereira wastes a lot of energy with his movements – both inside the octagon and, often, dancing on his walk to the octagon.
He showed concerning cardio in the back half of his three-round fights at welterweight but has yet to extend past the 96-second mark since returning to middleweight:
Michel Pereira’s last 3 fights, all at middleweight, have lasted for a combined 3 minutes.
Safe to say that Michel has hit his groove at 185 lbs #UFCVegas99pic.twitter.com/DTwdFX1bTV
— Maestro MMA (@mmamaestro_) October 14, 2024
Despite three consecutive first-round finishes, Pereiera's style has appeared more composed in his recent fights than in his earlier UFC career.
He's better off staying calm and playing the range game against Hernandez, who wants to grab Pereira and initiate grappling exchanges.
Fluffy has shown weakness when absorbing body strikes in the past – including his knockout loss to Holland – and Pereira targets those areas with kicks and punches. Even if those strikes don't have a fight-ending impact, that bodywork could slow Hernandez or sap his gas tank, narrowing the cardio discrepancy between the fighters.
Fluffy's skillset weaponizes his pace and cardio. He's a middleweight version of Merab Dvalishvili, averaging 14.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance (49% accuracy) by chain wrestling opponents and completing mat returns when they try to scramble back to their feet. Still, he doesn't have the same physicality as Merab, making it more difficult to implement his style.
That said, the longer the fight goes, the more it should favor Hernandez, and you might find his peak price live after Round 1. Pereira's physical advantages should be enough to keep this fight standing – or create an early finishing sequence – in the first five to seven minutes. However, Hernandez is a chain-wrestling machine, sticking to opponents and wearing on them with pace and pressure until they wilt. I'd expect Pereira to fade in the second half of this fight, particularly if forced to grapple from the outset.
While Pereira has shown strong takedown defense, he hasn't faced any outstanding wrestlers. He has primarily faced strikers, against whom he had the grappling upside in his back pocket.
While Pereira is the better striker than Hernandez, Fluffy has faced opponents that are stylistically similar to Pereira – but Pereira hasn't proven himself against a proactive wrestler.
Any early iterations of this fight favor Pereira, but most late finishing or decision equity points to Hernandez.
Hernandez vs. Pereira Pick
In this matchup, I projected Alexander Hernandez as a -158 favorite (61.3% implied). I'd push the line much closer in a three-round fight, but the five-round format helps Hernandez substantially.
I expect this fight to end inside the distance about 84% of the time (-520 implied) and don't see value concerning the total.
Pereira is the likelier Round 1 winner and early finisher, and I would consider a same game parlay with Pereira and Under 0.5 Rounds (+700 at DraftKings) or 1.5 Rounds (+340 at BallyBet) to bet into his likelier win conditions.
Alternatively, I'd lean toward Hernandez and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+155 at DraftKings) or 2.5 Rounds (+235) as the correlated ways to back the favorite at plus money. And I'd certainly take Hernandez live at a better price than his pre-fight moneyline, any time after Round 1.
While I show slight value on Hernandez to win by decision at one book (projected +716, listed +800 at BetRivers), I still prefer the SGP angles, or I'd bet Hernandez on the pre-fight moneyline to -146 (59.3% implied).
The Picks: Alexander Hernandez (-133 at Betway) | SGP: Hernandez & Over 1.5 Rounds (+155 at DraftKings) | SGP: Hernandez & Over 2.5 Rounds (+235 at DraftKings) | Hernandez Live after Round 1
