Check out the UFC Vegas 99 odds with our Hernandez vs. Pereira best bets for Saturday, October 19.
Tonight's UFC event takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with main-card action kicking off at 7 p.m. ET.
So where should you look to place your UFC Vegas 99 bets? Our crew has scanned the UFC odds board and pinpointed 4 fights and 4 picks on tonight's card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 99 with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 99 Odds & Best Bets
Tony Sartori: Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:05 p.m. ET
With the Austen Lane (+295) vs. Robelis Despaigne (-375) opening fight at UFC Vegas 99, the heavy favorite looks to get back into the win column following his decision loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. I was on WCA for that fight, and while I am still not sold on Despaigne's hype, the UFC is giving him an immensely favorable bounce-back opportunity this Saturday.
There are three reasons why WCA beat Despaigne:
- WCA is simply good (12-1 professional MMA record)
- He can absorb damage (boxing background and has never been knocked out across 19 combined professional and amateur MMA bouts)
- He can land takedowns
None of those three things applies to Lane. He possesses a 12-5 record and has lost three of his past four bouts, all by knockout (two of which occurred within two minutes of the first round).
Lane has also landed just one takedown on five attempts across five fights in the UFC.
At the end of the day, if Greg Hardy can knock out Lane in under a minute, then Despaigne can as well. Speaking of which, all five of Despaigne's professional wins have come by first-round knockouts.
Despaigne has one-touch power, and Lane has a one-touch chin, which is why the former is a -350 favorite. The only way Lane survives the first round is if he lands a takedown, which is something he struggles with.
The Pick: Robelis Despaigne in Round 1 (-110 at Betway)
Sean Zerillo: Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET
Melissa Martinez closed as a -170 favorite in her UFC debut against Elise Reed. Across 15 minutes, she proved the better distance striker (out-landed Reed 37-20 at distance) against the karate-style fighter. Martinez likely would have won that decision if she hadn't been knocked down in Round 1 (16-8 on significant strikes).
Martinez will return to the UFC octagon after a 25-month layoff. At age 27, Martinez (-148) will be in her physical prime against 32-year-old Alice Ardelean (+124), who lost a short-notice UFC debut against Shana Bannon (as a +145 underdog) in a low-level fight at UFC 304.
Ardelean is on the wrong side of the divisional age curve (32 is the average age for a UFC strawweight) and, despite her social media following, seems like the potential B-side in this matchup from a promotional standpoint.
Martinez's brother, David, earned a UFC contract on Contender Series on Oct. 1. The UFC is aggressively marketing the pair of strikers as the first active brother-sister duo in the promotion.
Ardelean has the grappling upside (landed two of four takedowns, 5:44 control time against Bannon), and Martinez permitted all three takedown attempts from Reed (3:34 control time). Still, Martinez showed urgency off her back and mixed in an offensive takedown of her own (2:42 control time). And she's also had two years to sure up the holes in the weakest parts of her game.
A six-time kickboxing national champion, Martinez is the much cleaner striker in this matchup, and I expect her to have better cardio down the stretch, too.
I projected Martinez as a -164 favorite (62.1% implied) and would bet her moneyline at -150 (60% implied) or better. If the price improves, I'd also bet Martinez live after Round 1; she may have some cage rust after the two-year absence.
Lastly, I see slight value in Martinez winning by KO/TKO (projected +544, listed +750 at BetRivers). If Ardelean can't complete a takedown, this fight could be one-way traffic for "Super Mely."
The Pick: Melissa Martinez (-130 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Dann Stupp: Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
I could've sworn this was Jessica Penne's retirement fight. All week, I thought the 41-year-old planned to sail off into the sunset following UFC Vegas 99 this weekend.
That's not the case. Not officially, anyway. But in interviews this week, Penne (+154) didn't exactly inspire confidence as she discussed her preparations for her prelim fight with fellow strawweight Elise Reed (-185).
There's a lot working against Penne, who's 2-2 with back-to-back losses since a four-year layoff due to a drawn-out drug-testing fiasco. Penne mentioned that injuries disrupted her most recent camp and remain a concern. And though the MMA pioneer tried to find a silver lining with the layoff, it's hard to risk hard-earned dollars on a vet who's admittedly "just taking it one fight at a time."
Reed, meanwhile, is the vanilla wafer of the UFC's 115-pound division. She's outclassed and outsized by the snickerdoodles and double-chunk chocolate cookies, but she can get the job against – say, for example – the Graham crackers and thumbprint cookies of the world.
I'm not sure where Penne ranks on the cookie scale (and all of these metaphors are making me hungry anyway), but Reed's straightforward, aggressive and fairly high-output style should get the job done here against an opponent with an array of red flags.
Penne's best shot is probably on the ground, but I'm not confident about her ability to get the fight there or keep it there, especially coming off a nagging foot injury.
I like Reed straight up on the moneyline at -175. You could actually get the bet to plus money if you take Reed to win by decision (+110 at Betway). But with Reed's deceptively solid power, as well as concerns about Penne's overall durability, I don't want to get greedy and take that risk.
The Pick: Elise Reed (-175 at Betway)
Billy Ward: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
The UFC Vegas 99 main event features two surging middleweights on extended winning streaks. The matchup is also a fairly significant step up in competition for both men, with neither holding a (UFC) win over a currently ranked opponent (Anthony Hernandez beat Brendan Allen in an LFA title fight in 2018).
“Fluffy” Hernandez has been making waves with his grappling, picking up three straight stoppage victories with a total of 17 takedowns along the way. He even submitted former ADCC world champion Rodolfo Viera to kick off his current winning streak.
On the other side of Hernandez (-142), Michel Pereira (+120) seems to have found the sweet spot between his high-flying acrobatics and more fundamental striking, especially since moving up to middleweight. The weight cut to 170 took a toll on the massive Pereira, who found himself out of steam when he couldn’t put his opponents away early.
He’s more than big and strong enough at 185 pounds, with three finishes in 66 seconds or less since moving up to his new division. Crucially, he has a career takedown defense rate of 94%.
Hernandez has piled up takedowns against lesser grapplers – and lesser athletes – so this one should only hit the mat if Pereira wants it to. On the feet, Pereira's the far more powerful and dynamic striker, so that plays out well for him.
I’d take Pereira at any plus-money line available, though consider a live hedge if Hernandez is still hanging around after a couple of rounds with a big plus-money price tag.
The Pick: Michel Pereira (+122 at Caesars Sportsbook)
