Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with UFC Vegas 99 predictions for Saturday, October 19, and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued in the Luck Ratings.
UFC Vegas 99 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire 11-fight event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with the main card kicking off at 7 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 99 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 99 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Anthony Hernandez (-130) vs. Michel Pereira (+110)
Like last week, we have a fairly lackluster overall UFC card this week, but it's an excellent main event for the UFC Apex. The headliner features two middleweights on extended winning streaks with Michel Pereira victorious in his past eight fights and Anthony Hernandez in his past five.
Pereira's three fights at middleweight have all wrapped up in under 61 seconds with "Demolidor" winning performance bonuses in each of them. It's hard to be much more dominant than that, though this is a big step up relative to his past competition at the weight class.
Hernandez has finishes in four of the five fights on his winning streak, though they've been more extended grappling victories than the extremely explosive Pereira's performances.
I was honestly surprised to see the Brazilian as an underdog here given how impressive he's been at his new weight class. The line has come in from +142 already, with a +124 at FanDuel the best currently available number.
I'd jump on that as soon as possible, with the caveat that I'll be looking to come back with "Fluffy" Hernandez in the live or late markets. If Pereira can't blow him away, Hernandez should take over late in the fight.
Verdict: Michel Pereira undervalued
Charles Johnson (-230) vs. Su Mudaerji (+190)
Su Mudaerji has six losses as a professional, and three have come in the UFC. All of those have been by submission.
In fact, if you look at his UFC record, a noticeable trend emerges: When he gets taken down, he loses; when he doesn't, he wins.
Which makes this a solid matchup for "The Tibetan Eagle" against Charles Johnson. "InnerG" averages just 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, or roughly one every 40 minutes of cage time. Those have all occurred in fights in which his opponent also lands a takedown – which tells me Johnson won't initiate grappling but will join in if his opponent starts.
Which Mudaerji certainly will not be doing. He might not win a pure striking match here, but his odds of doing so are a lot better than +190. Early action has been on Johnson, so we can probably afford to wait here – but be sure to keep an eye on the lines to try to catch the top of the market.
Verdict: Su Mudaerji undervalued (but wait)
Elise Reed (-162) vs. Jessica Penne (+136)
Jessica Penne is a pioneer of women's MMA, turning pro all the way back in 2006 at a time when very few female fighters were competing.
She's also 41 with her last win more than three years ago. She hasn't competed in a bit more than 18 months. That gives this the feel of a "swan song" fight, where she gets in there one last time before riding off into the sunset.
Elise Reed isn't exactly stiff competition, but she's alternated wins and losses in the UFC while winning the fights she's supposed to.
The best line on Reed is -150 at BetMGM and BetRivers. Jump on those while you still can.
Verdict: Elise Reed undervalued
Melissa Martinez (-148) vs. Alice Ardelean (+124)
It's hard to remember, but Melissa "Super Melly" Martinez came into the UFC with a fair bit of hype in 2022. She was the reigning Combate Global strawweight champion with a perfect 6-0 record.
Then she lost a decision to Elise Reed, and she hasn't been seen since. Now she's back after a two-year layoff, fresh off her brother's DWCS win and signing to the UFC.
Martinez gets Alice Ardelean, who made it into the UFC by virtue of living close to the arena that hosted UFC 304 and being able to fight on a few days' notice. She lost a split decision, which is normally a sign in her favor, but it was an extremely low-level fight.
I expect Martinez to be a level above Ardelean here, assuming she's spent some of the past two years training. The -148 at DraftKings is the best currently available line, but it's come in a bit after opening at -155. I'd take the -148, but let's get greedy and see if it gets any better,
