Check out our UFC predictions for UFC Vegas 99 with our favorite long-shot prop picks for Saturday, October 19.
UFC Vegas 99, which features an Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira main event, takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The full event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
With 11 fights, UFC Vegas 99 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has a handful they like for the card. Check out their 4 juicy UFC predictions below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with UFC props. Although the prop bets often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 99 odds for matchups as of Saturday afternoon. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Predictions & Props
Billy Ward: 14-1 Decision Prop in Despaigne vs. Lane Opener
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:05 p.m. ET
Just two fights into his UFC career, it’s already been a wild ride for former taekwondo Olympian Robelis Despaigne. He picked up an 18-second knockout over Josh Parisian in his debut in March, and he then came back two months later and lost a decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
In that decision, he was taken down in every round and spent almost 10 minutes of the 15-minute fight getting controlled on the ground. It’s worth noting that in his five-fight UFC career up to that point, Cortes-Acosta was officially 0 for 1 on takedown attempts.
If the former minor league baseball player can put Despaigne (-375) on his back, so can the former NFL defensive end Austen Lane (+295). Lane at least has one successful takedown in the UFC coming into this fight, against another dangerous striker in Jhonata Diniz.
While Lane is a worse MMA fighter than Cortes-Acosta, he has just as much grappling upside. The five months since his last fight also isn’t enough time for Despaigne to plug any grappling holes – at best he’s gotten a stripe or two on his white belt.
While there’s obviously a concern that Lane finishes the fight on the ground should he get it there, it’s worth a sprinkle at the +1400 odds. Who knows, if this bet hits we might even get to see Despaigne against a former basketball or hockey pro next.
The Pick: Austen Lane Decision (+1400 at BetMGM)
Tony Sartori: Katona's Mispriced Submission Prop
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a bantamweight bout between unranked contenders Brad Katona (+185) and Jean Matsumoto (-225). I think this line is far too inflated, which is primarily due to the fact that Matsumoto boasts a spotless 15-0 professional record.
With that said, there are a couple of reasons why I want to fade a fighter who should not be laying north of two dollars on the moneyline in this matchup. First, it's not like Matsumoto's unbeatable, considering he lost by submission in his amateur debut.
Second, he is very raw and has just one win in the UFC, which came against Dan Argueta. With all due respect to Argueta, he hast just one win over his past six UFC bouts.
Lastly, Matsumoto has displayed an immense weakness in defending takedowns. Argueta took him down nine times while Kasey Tanner also landed a pair of takedowns against Matsumoto in their Dana White's Contender Series scrap.
That's 11 takedowns surrendered over his past five rounds, which creates a path to victory for Katona.
Katona comes from a wrestling background and has also earned a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He's landed seven takedowns over his past two fights, which means he should have no issues taking down Matsumoto.
Once on the mat, the BJJ black belt is more than capable of recording a submission victory. The only reason this line is so long is that Katona has never won by submission on the professional level while Matsumoto has never tapped on the professional level.
However, neither of those statements is true when you include amateur bouts, and considering what seems like an obvious game plan to bring Matsumoto to the mat, 14/1 is worth a shot.
The Pick: Brad Katona by submission (+1400 at DraftKings)
Dan Tom: Market Again Sleeping on Pineda
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target the main card opener between Daniel Pineda (+114) and Darren Elkins (-135).
Despite usually taking the fighter with stronger stamina in this sort of stylistic dynamic, Pineda is an early finisher who has quietly scored huge for both myself and his backers given how hard the market has historically gone against him.
Not only is Pineda the more potent striker by a country mile, but the 39-year-old's porous defense will be far less of a liability opposite a striker like Elkins (whose lack of striking defense tends to make his opponents look better by comparison anyway).
But between Elkins being a fighter who's traditionally been difficult to knock out clean to the kind of action that the smaller octagon of the UFC's Apex encourages, I suspect that a club-and-sub scenario is a quietly potent potential outcome for this fight.
Aside from the fact that Pineda is a legitimate, competition-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, "The Pit" possesses a wicked guillotine choke that will be lying in wait for whenever Elkins shoots (which is something you can rely on Elkins doing regardless of what state he is in).
The Pick: Daniel Pineda by submission (+850 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: A Stolen KO Play for Johnson vs. Mudaerji
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Look, I'm going to be honest: I stole this play from my colleague and buddy Clint MacLean.
He lives in Arizona and usually works pretty late on Friday nights, so he didn't have time to write up his MMA Prop Squad play by this morning. But earlier this week, he called dibs on one particular play. He fell asleep before he could write it up, and as the great Michael Scott once said, "The early worm gets (another) worm."
I liked this play from the moment Clint mentioned it. Why? Because I can't find any other betting angle I like for the fight – and I'm a guy who likes to find a little action for as many bouts as possible on fight night.
I don't want any part of the Charles Johnson (-265) moneyline against fellow flyweight Su Mudaerji (+215) in their main-card bout. I've been burned by Johnson in the past. But I'll happily take 8-1 odds on a Johnson KO, especially over an opponent as incomplete Mudaerji, who's also fought just once since July 2022. (By comparison, Johnson has fought nine times in that period.)
Johnson has shown some improved fight IQ and takedown defense in recent bouts, which has resulted in a surprising three-fight winning streak. I'm hoping he's fallen in love with the feeling of winning on MMA's biggest stage and being a rising contender.
To get by Mudaerji, Johnson could probably pick away for 15 minutes on the feet and win a close decision. But you can't trust MMA judges, and Johnson also knows he's fighting an opponent who's prone to the type of bad decision-making that leads to stoppage losses (all six of Mudaerji's career wins are by submission).
However, rather than target a Johnson submission, we're going to target the juicier Johnson KO. Johnson should have a clear edge on the feet, and he's got some KO power (six of his 16 career wins). But I think Johnson could be especially effective with ground and pound against an opponent who sometimes looks lost on the mat. If Johnson gets to mount position, it could be just the opening we need.
The Pick: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO/DQ (+800 at BetRivers)
