Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas: Yan vs. Dvalishvili prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied an overall 20.9% ROI, including +11.5 units at UFC 285 last week.
This week marks the return of squad members John LanFranca, Tony Sartori and Dann Stupp.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ (3 p.m. ET) from The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
John LanFranca: Josh Fremd by Decision (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET
Sedriques Dumas makes his UFC main-roster debut after only seven professional fights. His opponents in his first five pro fights had a combined record of 9-17.
Dumas had an impressive sub-minute win on the Contender Series over another undefeated prospect, but he now faces undoubtedly his toughest test to date in UFC veteran Josh Fremd.
Dumas implemented an aggressive wrestling game plan to earn his UFC contract, but I do not believe things will come nearly as easily in this matchup. Fremd showed in Round 1 of his fight against Tresean Gore that he not only has the ability to battle through early adversity but can turn around things and regain the grappling advantage himself.
Make no mistake, both of Fremd's two previous opponents in the UFC were more experienced and accomplished grapplers. Fremd has a wrestling background and will use this to his advantage to ground the athleticism and potential power of the newcomer Dumas on Saturday.
There is also a case to be made that Fremd is the more technical striker of the two. The longer the fight plays out, the more likely it becomes that Fremd can wear down Dumas and test him in ways he has yet to encounter.
If the fight gets out of the first round, as I am expecting, Fremd will look the part of the favored fighter. There will be moments of danger for both fighters in this matchup, but backing the underdog and his grappling advantage here seems like a tremendous value against a largely untested fighter.
The Pick: Josh Fremd To Win By Decision (+600 at DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Said Nurmagomedov in Round 1 (+450)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
In the second fight on the main card, we have a bantamweight bout between Said Nurmagomedov and Jonathan Martinez. Both of these guys enter this scrap in tremendous form, winning their last four fights.
While many people see the name "Nurmagomedov" and assume we are in store for a wrestling/grappling clinic, Said is a bit different and prefers to stand and bang. With that said, two of his last three wins came via submission, though both of those chokes started from a standing position.
Despite preferring to stay on the feet, Nurmagomedov is a brilliant mixed martial artist who can beat you in any capacity, whether it is via knockout, submission or coasting to a decision. Since joining the UFC, he is 6-1 with four finishes.
Of those four finishes, three occurred in the first round since Nurmagomedov loves to create constant pressure from the jump. The odds are generous for Nurmagomedov to win in the first round once again because Martinez has been finished just once in his professional career, a second-round loss to Davey Grant.
In that bout, Grant's kickboxing posed problems for Martinez, especially in the first round when his creative kicks got through. That is the most likely avenue I see Nurmagomedov also exploiting in this fight as someone who loves to throw a bunch of spinning kicks and unorthodox combinations.
Those kicks could once again get through on Martinez and give him plenty of problems, which could also lead to Nurmagomedov finding the neck from a standing position once again. In Martinez's decision victory over Alejandro Perez, we saw Perez's striking also pose problems in the first round, even knocking down Martinez before the bell likely saved him from a troubling position.
Simply put, Nurmagomedov is better than Martinez in pretty much everything, and I expect his unique striking and creative kickboxing to pose problems for Martinez early. Look for Nurmagomedov to secure his fourth first-round victory since joining the UFC, whether it comes via knockout or submission.
Pick: Said Nurmagomedov in Round 1 (+450) |
Dann Stupp: Ryan Spann via Round 1 Submission (+1100)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
I'm ditching creativity for practicality this week with my Prop Squad pick.
While I lean toward Nikita Krylov on the moneyline in his main-card bout with Ryan Spann, I think we're getting some hard-to-ignore odds for one of Spann's most obvious paths to victory.
The light heavyweights were slated to meet two weeks ago before an illness forced Krylov to withdraw. Now at a catchweight of 215 pounds, I'm not sure much has changed in the past few weeks.
We know Spann is flawed. We know he gets tagged and wobbled and can be put away once things go south for him. But we know he can do the same to his opponents – in the first round, especially.
Spann's past three UFC wins have come in the opening round. In fact, 16 of his 21 career wins have come in the first round with 10 via submission.
At UFC Vegas on Saturday, Spann should have the desire to go for the submission rather than the knockout. Krylov has plenty of power in his own right, and he's arguably the more durable of the two. Plus, with the smaller UFC octagon being used this weekend, Krylov has less room to maneuver, and in the opening round, Spann could latch on a choke before the fighters get too sweaty and slick.
Is it probable? Not exactly. But at +1100 odds (8.3% implied probability), we're being told that a very likely path to victory for Spann is being priced at very long-shot odds. So, I'll bite. I put fair odds at about 15% (+567), so I think we're getting some solid value here that's worth at least a sprinkle.
Pick: Ryan Spann via Round 1 submission (+1100) |
