After training for months for a fight, it can be jarring for a fighter when his/her matchup is affected by someone missing weight.
Obviously, fighters' pay is affected by someone coming in over the limit, but it also can affect how bettors should approach certain fights. By going over recent trends of how fighters fare after missing weight, there have been a couple trends over the past couple years.
The biggest fights — main events and co-main events — are rarely affected by a fighter missing weight, but let's see if there's value to be found lower on the fight card in these circumstances.
In 2020, 27 UFC fighters missed weight and went on with their fight. They went a combined 9-18. It was a different story in 2021, with some significant trends going both ways.
The year started out as more of the same from 2020, with only three of nine fighters who missed weight coming out victorious in their fights. Then, though, three out of five won. And after that, a staggering seven straight were winners. Since Zhu Rong won in September, though, five straight fighters to miss weight have lost.
Here's a look at the fights in 2021 that have seen a fighter miss weight:
Bold indicates the winner. Closing odds are from bet365 and via bestfightodds.com.
| Date | Fighter Who Missed Weight | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 24, 2021 | Arman Tsarukyan (-714) | Matt Frevola (+500) |
| Feb. 20, 2021 | Drako Rodriguez (-189) | Aiemann Zahabi (+162) |
| Feb. 20, 2021 | Jared Gordon (+100) | Danny Chavez (-125) |
| Feb. 20, 2021 | Ketlen Vieira (-278) | Yana Kunitskaya (+220) |
| Feb. 28, 2021 | Maxim Grishin (+150) | Dustin Jacoby (-175) |
| March 6, 2021 | Askar Askarov (-164) | Joseph Benevidez (+137) |
| March 20, 2021 | Jesse Strader (+500) | Montel Jackson (-714) |
| March 27, 2021 | Fabio Cherant (+240) | Alonzo Menifield (-303) |
| April 10, 2021 | Ignacio Bahamondes (-213) | John Makdessi (+175) |
| April 17, 2021 | Tracy Cortez (-278) | Justine Kish (+225) |
| May 1, 2021 | Luana Carolina (+200) | Poliana Botelho (-250) |
| May 8, 2021 | Carlos Diego Ferreira (+125) | Gregor Gillespie (-152) |
| May 15, 2021 | Rogerio Bontorin (+140) | Matt Schnell (-172) |
| May 22, 2021 | Juancamilo Ronderos (+450) | David Dvorak (-625) |
| June 12, 2021 | Steven Peterson (-111) | Chase Hooper (-111) |
| July 10, 2021 | Irene Aldana (-111) | Yana Kunitskaya (-111) |
| July 31, 2021 | Phillip Rowe (+150) | Orion Cosce (-175) |
| Aug. 7, 2021 | Manel Kape (-213) | Ode Osbourne (+175) |
| Aug. 21, 2021 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+140) | Trevin Jones (-172) |
| Aug. 28, 2021 | Mana Martinez (-278) | Guido Cannetti (+225) |
| Sept. 18, 2021 | Rong Zhu (-278) | Dakota Bush (+225) |
| Oct. 2, 2021 | Mike Breeden (+450) | Alexander Hernandez (-625) |
| Oct. 2, 2021 | Bethe Correia (+450) | Karol Rosa (-625) |
| Oct. 9, 2021 | Jared Gooden (+225) | Randy Brown (-278) |
| Nov. 6, 2021 | CJ Vergara (+170) | Ode Osbourne (-200) |
| Nov. 6, 2021 | Bruno Souza (+300) | Melsik Baghdasaryan (-400) |
| Dec. 18, 2021 | Justin Tafa (-333) | Harry Hunsucker (+250) |
Overall, fighters who missed weight last year went 14-13. Among those winners, favorites were 9-3 despite missing weight. The lightweight division had the most fighters who missed weight over the course of the year (six) followed by men's flyweight division (five) and the bantamweight division (four).
