Vinc Pichel vs. Mark Madsen Odds
Lightweights Vinc Pichel and Mark Madsen will open the Pay-Per-View portion of Saturday's UFC 273 card. The matchup between the seasoned veteran, Pichel, and the undefeated Olympian should be an intriguing one as both men are looking to rise in the rankings.
Which man will maintain his current three-fight win streak?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Pichel | Madsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 11-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:40 | 10:24 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155.5 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/23/82 | 9/23/84 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.42 | 4.33 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.49 | 3.62 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg. | 3.29 | 4.33 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 60% |
| TD Def | 25% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
I suspect that Madsen — an undefeated Olympic Silver Medalist — is due to lose his 0 soon, and I'm happy to take a shot on the always-underrated Pichel as a slight favorite.
I projected Pichel's moneyline closer to -140, but I suspect he may have to rally to victory, and I prefer Pichel's live moneyline after Round 1 as the best way to play this fight.
Unsurprisingly, Madsen is excellent at taking his opponents down (66% takedown accuracy, 4.33 landed per 15 minutes), and Pichel offers little resistance on the defensive end (25% takedown defense).
However, Pichel rarely stays on his back for long — he's very adept at returning to his feet in short order, where you'll have to take him down again and again.
Madsen can undoubtedly pursue that game plan early, but he doesn't have the cardio to pull it off for 15 minutes.
While he's excellent at getting opponents to the mat, Madsen's top control is lacking since he's a Greco-roman wrestler, as opposed to a freestyle fighter. And he puts every ounce of muscle into each of his techniques.
Madsen tends to fade badly in the third round of his fights, particularly when he tries to grapple early. But even in his most recent bout with Clay Guida where he shot just one takedown, Madsen slowed down the stretch.
At range, I expect Pichel to destroy Madsen's lead leg with kicks — Madsen didn't check one of Guida's 16 leg strikes — and he's far likelier to put together combinations and pull away on volume.
Don't sleep on Vinc Pichel pic.twitter.com/1n60F8QZv3
— Ocelot MMA (@Ocelot_MMA) April 7, 2022
Madsen tends to throw one strike at a time while telegraphing his attacks occasionally.
I don't give Madsen a ton of finishing upside in this fight and generally feel that he needs to win the first seven and a half minutes to secure the scorecards, given his propensity for fading in Round 3.
Pichel vs. Madsen Pick
Pichel's Round 3 prop (+1400) would be worth a poke at +2000 or better. Still, I'm just taking a small pre-fight wager on Pichel's moneyline to lay a more significant bet (and likely at far superior odds) live after Round 1.
And while I project this fight to go the distance more often than the odds suggest (projected -179, listed -165), I want no part of sweating Madsen to survive Round 3.
The Pick: Vinc Pichel (-120, 0.5u)
