Arguably, the most compelling of the title fights at UFC 312 is the strawweight co-main event between the dominant champion Zhang Weili and the undefeated Tatiana Suarez.
Suarez has been seen as a future champion for the better part of a decade, but repeated health struggles have prevented her from getting her shot — until now. The undefeated contender is stepping into a title fight after being inactive since August 2023, with a chance to finally fulfill her potential. Oddsmakers have made her a slight favorite to do so—but this could be anyone's fight.
Here's my Zhang vs. Suarez prediction.
Weili Zhang vs. Tatiana Suarez Odds, Prediction
| Zhang Odds | +105 |
| Suarez Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 Rounds (-140/+110) |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena | Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Wednesday. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Zhang | Suarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-3 | 11-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:34 | 9:20 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 63" | 65" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/13/1989 | 12/19/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.66 | 4.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 63% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.15 | 1.38 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.51 | 6.20 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 61% |
| TD Def | 50% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.9 |
Tatiana Suarez is best known for her wrestling prowess, having started the sport before her fourth birthday. Among other accolades, she was twice named national high school wrestler of the year and won a gold medal at the Pan American Games.
Injuries and health issues have been a recurring theme for Suarez even before her transition to MMA, though. She suffered a neck injury while training for the 2012 Olympics, which revealed that she also had thyroid cancer. After recovering from cancer, she transitioned to MMA, making her pro debut in 2014.
She burst onto the scene with a dominant run in The Ultimate Fighter Season 23 in 2016, winning the tournament with three finishes in four bouts. Since then, she's competed just six times in more than eight years.
When she's in the cage, though, she's been dominant. She has a takedown rate of over six per 15 minutes and is efficient with her attempts, landing over 60% of them. Suarez is also a BJJ black belt and specializes in chokes from a front headlock position.
These techniques work especially well for her since her opponents typically adopt a lower stance to be in position to defend her shots. That breaks their posture, giving Suarez access to the head and neck. While I didn't love the fact that she jumped guillotine instead of using it to gain top position in her last two fights, she was able to finish the choke on both occasions.
One of those was a one-arm guillotine against Jessica Andrade, which is either a testament to Suarez's strength or a reflection of Andrade's grappling flaws. I lean slightly toward the latter—Andrade didn't really attempt to defend the choke at any point—but that's up for debate.
Either way, it's unlikely she has the same kind of success against Zhang. "Magnum" would almost certainly refuse to tap to a less-than-fully-locked-in choke and is a solid grappler in her own right. She's never been submitted, and her only career losses were due to being outstruck.
Even in some of her wins—like her title-retaining performance at UFC 300—Zhang has been hurt on the feet. That's probably not an issue against Suarez, though, since the challenger still shows relatively basic striking and has yet to land a knockdown in the Octagon.
The bigger concern is Zhang's takedown defense. It sits at a mediocre 50%—albeit primarily against the very top of the division—and will surely be exploited at some point by Suarez. However, Zhang often comes out on top in grappling exchanges, even when initially taken down.
What will decide this fight is not whether Suarez can take Zhang down, but what she can do with those takedowns—especially deeper into the fight, as Suarez has never fought beyond three rounds and is coming off a knee injury that forced her to withdraw from a fight in December.
Zhang vs. Suarez Prediction
If it weren't for all the external factors, I could mostly understand Suarez being a slight favorite in this matchup. She's undefeated, has never really been pushed in any of her fights, and has wins over three former champions (though Jessica Andrade, Carla Esparza, and Alexa Grasso are about as weak a grouping of former champs as possible).
She also has at least one clear edge over the current champion with her wrestling, though I'd argue that striking/power would be more useful against Zhang.
However, it's impossible to ignore all the other factors. Suarez has fought just twice since the summer of 2019 and pulled out of two fights in 2024 with injuries. She's also never had to fight five rounds, and repeatedly shooting for takedowns over an extended period is extremely demanding from a cardio standpoint.
Plus, Zhang has the clear edge on the feet, has excelled in extended fights, and should be roughly evenly matched on the ground.
We're getting all of that at even money (+105), though the line has started to come back to Zhang, so jump on it before it's gone. I'm somewhat interested in Zhang's Round 4/5/Decision prop at FanDuel as well, but at +195, it's too close to the moneyline for the extra risk.
Billy's Pick: Weili Zhang +105 (DraftKings)
