Xiaonan Yan vs. Tabatha Ricci Odds for UFC Macau
| Yan Odds | -198 |
| Ricci Odds | +164 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-500 / +340) |
| Location | Galaxy Arena, Macau |
| Bout Time | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Macau odds as of Thurday and via DraftKings | |
Check out Xiaonan Yan vs. Tabatha Ricci predictions, picks and odds for UFC Macau on Saturday, Nov. 23, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC badly needs contenders at the strawweight division with champion Zhang Weili having mostly cleared out the division. Yan was the most recent victim of Zhang's at UFC 300, where she suffered a fairly one-sided loss to the champion outside of a third-round knockdown.
Ricci has a shot to insert herself into the title picture. She's 6-2 in the UFC, with her only losses coming in her debut (at flyweight) and via split decision against Lupita Godinez.
The winner of Yan vs. Ricci is probably a fight away from a title shot, so the stakes are high. Will it be Yan who's able to work her way into a rematch with Weili, or can Ricci inject some new life into the top of the division?
Here's my Yan vs Ricci pick and prediction.
Yan vs. Ricci Tale of the Tape
| Yan | Ricci | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-4 | 11-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:02 | 13:09 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 | 115 |
| Reach (inches) | 63" | 61" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/16/1989 | 2/21/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.97 | 4.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.66 | 5.30 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.00 | 2.99 |
| TD Acc | 73% | 38% |
| TD Def | 62% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.1 |
With a high-volume approach and plenty of power, Yan is probably the best boxer in women's MMA right now. She showcased that in her losing effort against Weili at UFC 300.
Yan landed a third-round knockdown (and arguably a few other knockdowns that weren't scored as such), forcing the champion to lean more on her grappling.
We'll have a similar dynamic here as Ricci is known primarily for her grappling. Besides the technical edge with her hands, Yan has a considerable strength and power edge on the feet.
Ricci's striking has improved in recent fights, particularly since she began training with now-boyfriend Callum Walsh, who is an undefeated pro boxer. However, it's clearly not her strength. She was out-struck in each of her last three fights, and she has never landed a knockdown in the UFC.
Ricci might be able to compete on the feet from a pure volume standpoint, but the more impactful shots will certainly come from Yan, who also has a height and reach edge.
The critical dynamic here will be Ricci's ability to bring the fight to the mat — and what she can do once she's down there. Ricci has never lost a fight in which she landed a takedown, and Yan was finished on the ground by Carla Esparza (and nearly finished multiple times by Weili).
Getting to the mat without taking too much damage is the hard part. On the one hand, I'm encouraged by the type of takedowns Yan typically gets hit with. Almost all of Weili's takedowns were from the clinch via trips, rather than wrestling-style takedowns from the outside.
That's a good thing for Ricci, who's foundation was actually in Judo before adding Brazilian jiu-jitsu to the repertoire. Ricci holds black belts in both arts, but Judo-style takedowns should serve her well against Yan.
It's worth mentioning that this fight will be in the larger UFC pay-per-view cage, rather than the smaller one found at the Apex. That makes establishing close quarters more difficult for Ricci.
Additionally, Yan is considerably bigger and stronger. Both of Ricci's losses came against more physical opponents, though one of those was up a weight class at flyweight.
Yan vs. Ricci Pick and Prediction
Besides the technical dynamics, it's also important to factor in Yan's age when handicapping this fight. She turned 35 following her loss at UFC 300, while also taking a ton of damage.
Odds are there's some decline coming for Yan in the near future, especially considering she fights in the smallest UFC weight class. Larger fighters typically age a bit more gracefully, as speed and reaction time play a smaller role.
Ultimately, Yan's boxing-heavy style relies on establishing close quarters, which should give Ricci the opportunity to land at least a takedown or two. While Yan has a four-inch height advantage, there's only a two-inch difference in reach.
I already took Ricci at +175 as outlined in my Luck Ratings, but I'd be happy to take the best current odds (+170 at BetRivers) for a half-unit as well.
On top of that, I'm betting to win half a unit on Ricci's +3.5 point spread on DraftKings at -165. That way, if she's able to win even one round on the ground we break even, while turning a solid profit with a Ricci outright win.
Billy's Pick: Tabatha Ricci +170 (.5u, BetRivers) | Ricci +3.5 -165 (.8u, DraftKings)
