Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Freire Odds, Prediction
| Rodriguez Odds | -198 |
| Freire Odds | +164 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-160/+124) |
| Location | Kaseya Center | Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 314 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 314 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Freire predictions, picks and odds for UFC 314 on Saturday, April 12th.
In recent months the UFC has signed a steady stream of top talent from outside the organization, with the latest new addition making his debut at UFC 314. Patricio "Pitbull" Freire was a long running Bellator featherweight champion, one time lightweight champ (earned by knocking out Michael Chandler), and bantamweight title challenger. He makes his debut against former UFC interim champion Yair Rodriguez, in a fight that could have serious implications in the 145lbs title picture.
Here's my Rodriguez vs. Freire prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Rodriguez | Freire | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-6 | 36-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:07 | 16:47 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/06/1992 | 7/07/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.65 | 2.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.99 | 4.43 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 18% |
| TD Def | 58% | 94% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.6 |
A quick look at Pitbull's recent results paints the picture of a fighter solidly past his prime. He's 1-2 in his last three, and suffered his first legitimate knockout loss (he previously had an injury TKO) two fights ago.
The context behind those fights tells a different story. The first of those losses came when a clearly diminished Freire made a massive weight cut to 135, and was outworked by Sergio Pettis. The second loss came in a cross promotional event against Rizin, where Pitbull came up to challenge a lightweight.
In his best weight class of featherweight, he's won four straight fights and ten of his last 11, while avenging his only loss in that span.
He was in vintage form in his last fight against Jeremy Kennedy last spring. Pitbull is a vicious counter striker, who patiently claims the center of the cage while waiting for his opponent to present openings.
That fight is particularly useful to evaluate this matchup, as Kennedy's dimensions — 5'11" with a 71" reach — perfectly match those of Rodriguez.
Freire is happy to stand his ground, chipping away with leg kicks against taller opponents. He's a quality over quantity striker, picking his spots judiciously especially against taller and longer fighters.
On the one hand, that's the exact wrong tactic to take against fighters like Rodriguez. The former interim champion has a Taekwondo background, and does his best work when given the time and the space to set up flashy kicks and knees.
However, Pitbull's heavy leg kicks can mitigate much of that problem, particularly if he can time Rodriguez's bounces to catch the weighted foot on the way down.
Freire also has excellent reaction times and defense in general, and is unlikely to get caught clean by any of the dramatic actions Rodriguez throws out. What's probable is Rodriguez landing plenty of glancing shots, with Freire occasionally landing bigger and cleaner.
Freire has fought almost exclusively in five round fights for the past decade or so, though, so it will be interesting to see if he can turn up the volume a bit in this three round affair.
Either way, that creates a somewhat challenging visual for judges, who will be forced to decide between the quality of Freire or the quantity of Rodriguez in rounds conducted mostly on the feet.
I'd give Freire a slight grappling edge here, in that he's better at controlling positions and doing damage. Rodriguez is probably the better submission hunter, but typically loses rounds off his back when unable to force the tap. My guess is we don't see much grappling in this fight either way, though.
Rodriguez vs. Freire Prediction
I see two potential angles to betting this fight.
The first is Freire in the "decision no bet" market, at +116 on FanDuel. (That market is phrased as "finish only" on DraftKings, and is currently +110 for Freire). That bet would be graded as a push if this fight goes all three rounds, regardless of who the judges deem the victor.
Friere carries more power in this matchup, and Rodriguez has been finished in consecutive fights. While Rodriguez poses a submission threat, Freire had been submitted just once in his 43 fight career.
The other option is Pitbull's moneyline, which is as high as +170 at Caesars. While a somewhat close decision wouldn't at all surprise me, if I'm predicting a hard to judge affair, it makes far more sense to bet on the underdog.
Since I'm torn between those two options, I'm splitting my exposure down the middle. I'll take a half unit on each, which limits the risk in case of a close decision going the wrong way.
Billy's Pick: Patricio Freire Decision No Bet +116 (FanDuel) | Moneyline +170 (Caesars)
