Yan Xiaonan and Virna Jandiroba will face off in the UFC 314 prelims on Saturday, April 12.
Here's my Xiaonan vs. Jandiroba prediction.
Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba Odds, Prediction
| Women's Strawweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Xiaonan Odds | +125 |
| Jandiroba Odds | -150 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-200/+150) |
Projection: Jandiroba (67.0%)
I projected Virna Jandiroba as a -203 favorite in a relatively binary matchup with Yan Xiaonan, and would bet the grappler on the moneyline at -180 or better.
Jandiroba might be the best cage grappler in the strawweight division – and one of the best pound-for-pound in the UFC; and if she hadn't let MacKenzie Dern up (while holding top position) in the final minute of their fight at UFC 256, she could more readily stake that claim.
Virna has high-level jiu-jitsu skills, but she combines that skillset with proactive, effective wrestling, averaging 4.9 takedowns per five minutes at range, and completing 35% of those attempts (18 of 52). She has a 74% control rate in grappling positions, compared to 25% for Yan, who has decent first-layer takedown defense (63%) but gets stuck on her back for lengthy stretches of fights, and was nearly submitted multiple times by Zhang Weili.
Yan is the far more effective and efficient striker (+2.8 to -0.8 strike differential per minute) and could potentially steal the fight with impactful moments in two of the three rounds, even while mainly getting outgrappled.
While I lean toward Jandiroba to win by submission – since, she should have opportunities to finish the fight on the mat, if she gets to the positions she needs to in order to win the fight in general, I only project very slight value on her submission prop (projected +273, listed +275) as compared to her decision prop (projected +187, listed +210).
Additionally, I'd lean toward the fight to end inside the distance, given the binary nature, but don't project enough value in that market (projected +142, listed +145) to fire a straight wager.
Bets
- Virna Jandiroba (-142, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -180
