Check out our F1 Betting Guide to learn how to bet on Formula 1 racing like an expert.
F1 has grown tremendously in popularity over the last few years following the boom from "Drive to Survive" on Netflix. With that, interest in betting on F1 has been at an all-time high, and many legal sportbooks are taking advantage of this and increasing market offerings.
One of the most interesting things about betting on F1 as a data-focused person is that there is a ton of data on these cars and you can get into it as deeply as you want. There is everything out there from just basic lap time data to speed data to even full-blown telemetry data showing things like throttle percentage and steering wheel angle.
There are a number of ways to consume F1 and bet on it, but below is my Formula 1 betting guide with tips I have found most helpful over the last couple of years.
F1 Betting Guide
Learn the Cars and Their Attributes
What makes F1 interesting as a motorsport is that it is a Constructor’s sport. This means that the teams individually construct their own cars and most of the components in them, allowing for variations in performance between teams despite them following the same regulations.
This makes it different from spec series like the NASCAR Cup Series or Indycar as the cars are not meant to be exactly the same with limited differences.
I believe that the most profitable way to bet on F1 is to learn about the characteristics of each car. You don’t need an engineering degree to do so, but understanding the concepts of drag and downforce will go a long way.
Combine this with the next tip, and you are most of the way toward solving the puzzle for a given weekend.
Learn the Tracks
As each team’s car has different strengths and weaknesses, each track also has different attributes. Some such as Las Vegas or Montreal have long straight stretches in which you want your car to have low drag to be able to hit the highest speeds possible and you aren’t as worried about corner ability. Others, including Austria and Silverstone, require high downforce to be able to take corners at full speed and are less focused on straight-line speed.
Learning the differences between tracks and combining them with the strengths of each car is the key to betting F1. You will be able to pick up on differences between which teams will do well in a given race weekend as compared to their close peers.
Using a current (2024) example, Haas has the car with the lowest drag on the grid, and they often are the fastest on straights. This means that they are able to excel on tracks with long straights where they can exhibit their top speeds, but they may struggle more on tracks that place more of an emphasis on cornering ability.
Look for Upgrades
In F1, the car a team has at the beginning of the season isn’t what they are stuck with all year. Teams are constantly working to fix their issues and improve the cars throughout the course of the season.
These upgrade packages that are brought to a race weekend are often reported ahead of time. Sometimes one driver on the team sees the new upgrades, and sometimes both will get them at the same time, which can be important to monitor for head-to-head matchups between teammates.
Sometimes these are small upgrades or upgrades that don’t make an obvious difference in performance. However, other times, these can be massive jumps that turn around a season for a struggling team.
I’m not saying to just bet on teams that have upgrades, but rather, read the news you can find and be aware of changes teams may make. From there you can then monitor practice sessions and reflect on previous races to see if this upgrade will matter or not and in which direction.
Monitor Grid Penalties
Similarly to the point above, monitoring grid penalties involves staying up to date on F1 news. Drivers will get grid penalties in F1 for a number of reasons, namely either committing a penalty on the track or having to replace a part on their cars past their allotted limit.
Grid penalties would apply to the race and would affect your starting position and thus your chances to win. Having a grid penalty could determine your race strategy and affect your entire weekend as you will have to start further back than where you would have qualified had you not had the penalty.
Knowing grid penalties are expected to be on their way for a weekend or monitoring when a driver does have a penalty coming can keep you from getting in trouble. If the market already knows that a car is going to be starting further back in the field, their odds to win the race would likely already reflect this. If you believe that car can overcome the penalty, then this may represent value to you, but if you are looking at the lines blindly and bet on a driver who will have a penalty, this could be a major mistake.
Find the Best Lines
There are a ton of ways to bet on Formula 1. Some books offer just the basics (winner, podium, top 6) while others will offer a multitude of H2H matchups or different props focusing on drivers in the back of the pack.
There are a ton of ways to bet F1, but the most important thing is to shop around and get the best line.
This is true with any type of sports betting, but in F1, these markets are thinner and there can be large differences between books. Before placing a bet, just take a moment to check other books and make sure you are getting the best price to set yourself up for success.
Avoid Too Many Long Shots
It can be enticing to try to pick 50/1 winners each week, but this isn’t the Daytona 500. The top teams on the grid win every week for a reason: because they have the fastest car and/or the best drivers. There is much less variance in F1 than in other motorsports due to its constructor nature. There is a wider gap between cars, which leads to the best teams winning most often.
Things like cautions and weather can throw a wrench into a weekend, but most of the time, I wouldn’t go crazy betting a large portion of your bankroll on long shots. Some of the best bets I have seen on F1 are at large minus odds as they were even more certain than the books were already pricing in.
The best way to go broke betting on Formula 1 is to only take long-shot race winners instead of focusing on the best cars and looking deeper at other markets.
Watch Practice
I understand that not everyone has time to watch multiple practice sessions, qualifying and the race. However, I will say that watching practice can provide some interesting information.
Often during these dull sessions, the reporters and commentators will drop bits of knowledge they have heard around the garage regarding happenings on the grid and how teams feel about their chances. It doesn’t always happen, but you may just catch a knowledge of wisdom from these broadcasts that can help you later in the weekend.
Additionally, it’s not all about the reports but also the data. You don’t have to watch practice to see this, but you can look at data from practice to see if things have gone as you expected. Not all practice data is valuable as teams are attempting different strategies, but Q2 (the second qualifying session) is typically the most important to pay attention to as teams will often attempt their qualifying simulations here.
Another thing to watch for in practice data is for when teams do their longer runs. Over this run you can see their performance and how that may compare in race pace to other teams on the same tire sets. This could give you an indication as to which teams are doing best during the weekend or where teams may be struggling, as well as give you insight on the best tire compounds that weekend.
Weigh Recent History Heavier
As mentioned above, teams are constantly improving their cars. Typically I’m not one to overreact to recent events and want to look at a larger sample size, but I’ve learned over the last few years that when the data tells you something, you should probably believe it.
If a team takes a massive jump in one weekend, you may want to believe in this. If a team has unlocked something with their car, it may still be a few weeks before the books catch on and update their lines, leaving you to profit from their slowness to react.
I’m not saying jump on every trendy team or back a team just because they finished well the week before on a fluke, but if the data supports a team making a large gain on their competitors and this isn’t yet reflected in the market, these make for some of our F1 best bets.
Look for Value Down the Grid
Betting on Formula 1 isn’t all about just taking who will win the race or finish on the podium. There are plenty of other ways to bet on F1 that include taking an interest in the midpack and backmarker cars.
There are typically markets for top-10 finishes, head-to-head matchups and even one of my personal favorites: “best finisher with the top five teams.” Not as many people focus on these markets, but if you can learn the characteristics of the cars in the back of the pack, then this could be a valuable endeavor for you.
Reflect Afterward
As with anything you are doing, reflect afterward. Learn from your mistakes and see where you went right or wrong when evaluating a race weekend. Use this to improve going forward and grow as an F1 bettor so that you don’t make the same mistakes over and over again.
If you are continuously losing money on a specific team and the data isn’t backing your reasoning, reevaluate your position rather than doubling down and hoping that you will be proven right.
