Unfortunately, qualifying for Sunday morning's F1 Hungarian Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN) did not go the way I had envisioned, with Aston Martin and Alpine both having some struggles. Fernando Alonso will be starting from eighth and will not likely be challenging for a podium like I believed he would.
Saturday's qualifying session did have some surprises, though.
Lewis Hamilton went fastest to barely edge out Max Verstappen for the top spot on the grid, giving him his ninth career pole in Budapest.
Verstappen remains the race favorite (-250) with Hamilton having the second-shortest Hungarian Grand Prix odds to win at +300, as of race morning. Lando Norris was the third favorite at +800 with the rest of the field at 10-1 or longer.
McLaren also confirmed that their newfound pace is legitimate, posting another strong weekend at a completely different track from where they first showed this in Silverstone a week ago. The two McLarens will start third and fourth on the grid.
Sergio Perez made it out of Q3 for the first time in weeks, but he still finds himself with only a ninth-place start. The Mexican driver will have a lot of work to do if he wants to end up on the podium on Sunday.
Following qualifying, odds tighten up quite a bit, and there is not nearly as much value on the board. However, one thing I’ve noticed is that the books are not believing in McLaren quite as much now.
After their showing today in qualifying, I am a believer in this team and what they bring to the track.
F1 Picks for Hungarian Grand Prix
Lando Norris to Podium
After almost winning the pole and finishing second in Silverstone, Lando Norris followed that up with a third-place starting position this weekend. Norris is set up well to finish on the podium on Sunday – and possibly even compete for the win.
This all depends on how the Red Bull of Max Verstappen does. I believe that Verstappen is still fastest, but the rest of the pack may be catching up.
Outside of Verstappen, Norris will likely be competing with Lewis Hamilton and teammate Oscar Piastri for a podium spot. Many of the other drivers starting behind these four on the grid will likely not have enough race pace to keep up with the top four.
So close but so far! P3, great day and lovely position for tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/OrEUmSyxrs
— Lando Norris (@LandoNorris) July 22, 2023
With Sergio Perez having been much slower than his teammate lately and starting ninth, I don’t expect much of a challenge from Perez for the podium, especially at a track where it is notoriously difficult to overtake.
For that reason, I think that Norris has a real chance to compete this weekend for one of the top spots. If you want a long shot, feel free to take a flier on Lando to win the whole thing at +900. It will largely come down to how good of a start he will be able to get when the lights go out on Sunday.
The Picks: Lando Norris Podium (-140 at BetMGM)
Oscar Piastri to Podium & Top 6
Speaking of McLaren, I don’t like leaving out Piastri either. The rookie has been very impressive this year, almost keeping pace with veteran Norris on most occasions.
The last grand prix saw the young Australian finish fourth, his best career finish to date. If it were not for an ill-timed safety car, we very likely may have seen Piastri finish on the podium for the first time, ahead of Hamilton.
Starting behind Verstappen may end up being an advantage as Piastri will be able to follow the Red Bull down into Turn 1. It appears that the McLaren is faster than Mercedes, so with a good start, Piastri could find himself ahead of Hamilton and possibly even his teammate Norris.
Piastri has the fifth- or sixth-best podium odds at most books, which points out where his value is. As stated with Norris, I don’t see much competition coming from behind him on the grid, and he should be able to get out to an advantage with the front pack.
There is a reason that this is at plus odds, as Piastri would need to pass one of the drivers in the top three. But if he can either make this happen or if there are troubles for anyone ahead of him, Oscar is in a good position to pull it off, and he is a great value here.
If you wish to opt for the safer play, you can also grab him at -225 to finish in the top six, which I think is a relative certainty barring any issues.
