Check out the F1 odds and my Azerbaijan Grand Prix best bets for the early-morning race on Sunday, September 15.
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sunday (7 a.m. ET, ESPN) has been moved from its original early-season round slot on the calendar to the beginning of the final third of the season. The seventh edition of the F1 Azerbaijan GP at Baku City Circuit will be the sixth (out of eight) street circuit race of the season.
Through the first 16 rounds of the 2024 F1 season, the Max Verstappen runaway four-peat Drivers' Championship is now thoroughly in question. While his current lead over Lando Norris is 62 points and his lead over Charles Leclerc is 86 points, the Red Bull RB20 car has lost ground and has even been surpassed by rivals McLaren and Ferrari since the end of May.
The recent F1 odds and betting markets are now reflecting this uncertainty at the top.
The circuit at Baku is located on the banks of the Caspian Sea in the streets of Azerbaijan’s capital city. The temporary track features 20 turns and two DRS zones, and it's extremely fast in certain spots for drivers to go full throttle. There are also 90-degree turns and very narrow corners – the tightest being only 7.6 meters wide – and forces the drivers to be ever so precise to stay in the race.
Qualifying on Saturday afternoon local time took place on a dry, dusty track that ramped up extremely quickly during the initial part of qualifying.
Charles Leclerc took pole position for the fourth straight F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix while fellow championship contender Lando Norris inexplicably aborted his final lap in Q1 to fall out of the top 15 of qualifying.
Norris will start the race all the way down in P17 while teammate Oscar Piastri will start next to Leclerc in P2.
Oliver Bearman, who is driving in place of Kevin Magnussen at Haas, narrowly missed out on Q3 due to both Williams drivers jumping up into the top 10 of the starting grid. Carlos Sainz will start P3, and two-time Baku winner Sergio Perez will start ahead of his teammate Max Verstappen in P4 and P6, respectively.
Here are my F1 Azerbaijan picks and predictions.
(Bet on the F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix this weekend with our DraftKings promo code!)
F1 Odds With Best Bets for Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Fading Pole Position
As mentioned earlier, Charles Leclerc will start the F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix from pole position for the fourth straight year. The three previous attempts at winning this race from pole have not gone according to plan for the Ferrari driver. Leclerc has finished P4, retired the car after 21 laps, and finished P3 during these three races.
Overall, Baku has not fared well for just about any driver on pole. Just once has the pole winner finished in P1 over the six official Azerbaijan Grand Prix races. In 2019 Valtteri Bottas accomplished this. Perez has won from P3 and P6, Verstappen has won once from P3, Hamilton did it back in 2018 and from P2, and the inaugural GP was won by Daniel Ricciardo from P10 in 2017.
Even coming off of a huge win at Monza and securing pole position, this is a Leclerc fade opportunity based on the race history and the drivers’ inability to convert pole position into wins here.
While Leclerc did win from pole position this season at Monaco, the biggest difference in these two situations is the inability for cars to overtake at Monaco while overtaking is much easier to do on the streets of Baku.
To pair with the logic that Leclerc will have more qualifying pace than race pace on Sunday, that leaves the question of who would win this race in his stead. My money is on Max Verstappen and Red Bull making a statement that the Drivers’ Championship and the Constructors’ Championship still run through that Red Bull Racing garage.
I see a few ways to play this since Perez is a two-time winner at Baku and outqualified Verstappen. We can take "Race Winning Car" at +550 for Red Bull – or double up and also take Max Verstappen individually at +1200 odds to win this race.
Also, keep in mind Verstappen's lap times this weekend. Although he does start down in P6 after an average lap time in Q3, he was top of the grid in FP1 and top of the grid in Q2 with a 1:42.042 fastest lap.
The Picks:
- Charles Leclerc: Top 3 Finish – No (1 unit, +230 on BetMGM)
- Race Winning Car – Red Bull (1 unit, +700 on FanDuel)
- Max Verstappen – Race Winner (1 unit, +1200 on DraftKings)
Safety Car Prop Bet
If you’ve followed along in the past with my post-qualifying F1 odds previews this season, this bet has not been kind to us.
Going back to the Australian Grand Prix and the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, neither race saw this bet hit (though the virtual safety car was deployed down under).
That being said, we’re going back to the well here. I am taking the “yes” for a safety car deployment in Baku. A safety car has been deployed in five of the past six Azerbaijan races. Of the previous five street circuit races this season, three of the five had at least one safety car deployed.
The odds are steep for this bet, but I am willing to lay the juice once again.
Pick: Will there be a safety car? – Yes (2 units, -265 on FanDuel)
