Check out the latest F1 odds and Canadian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, June 9.
This weekend the F1 circuit will head back to North America for the 2024 F1 Canadian Grand Prix at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve in Montreal (2 p.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+).
At Monaco a week ago, we saw Max Verstappen struggle in qualifying and fail to make any hay in the race while his teammate Sergio Perez crashed out on the first lap. Verstappen doesn’t think that Canada will be a strong track for Red Bull either, meaning that the battle at the top could be way more wide open going forward.
Here are the F1 odds for Sunday's Canadian Grand Prix outright winner, as of Thursday and via FanDuel:
- Max Verstappen: -210
- Lando Norris: +550
- Charles Leclerc: +550
- Oscar Piastri: +1600
- Carlos Sainz Jr.: +2100
- Sergio Perez: +3100
- Lewis Hamilton: +7000
- George Russell: +7000
- Fernando Alonso: +13000
- Yuki Tsunoda: +20000
- Daniel Ricciardo: +200c00
- Lance Stroll: +42000
- Nico Hulkenberg: +42000
- Alexander Albon: +42000
- Valtteri Botas: +42000
- Kevin Magnussen: +42000
- Pierre Gasly: +42000
- Zhou Guanyu: +42000
- Esteban Ocon: +42000
- Logan Sargeant +42000
This circuit is much different from what we saw in the last round at Monaco. Monaco is a classic street circuit where slow corners and high downforce make the difference. Canada is almost the opposite as it is a track that rewards low drag and doesn’t require much downforce to succeed. Instead, traction becomes important as there are multiple places on the track where drivers go from a slow corner directly into a long straight, testing the acceleration of these cars.
Ferrari pulled within 24 points of Red Bull in the Constructor Standings, and they are now in striking distance with McLaren lurking just a bit further away. Verstappen still has a handy lead on first place in the Driver Standings, but if Red Bull continues to struggle, then we could see this dwindle.
Another factor to take into account with this race, as is often the case in Canada, is the weather. Currently, there is a strong chance of showers in every session this weekend – with between a 40-60% chance for each session at the time of this writing.
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F1 Odds: Canadian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Sainz Undervalued
For much of this season, Carlos Sainz has performed on the same level as Charles Leclerc. Yet, he is being looked at as the much inferior driver.
Sainz outran Leclerc 3-0 to start the season before Leclerc has taken the last five. The margins between these two are razor thin, and Sainz likely shouldn’t be +190 against his teammate.
This lack of belief in Sainz has made his number far too low in other markets, as well. Right now you can find odds on Sainz both at +2500 to win the race and +275 to finish on the podium.
I believe that these are bets both worth taking. Ferrari has a good chance to win this race with either of their drivers, which obviously gives Sainz a good chance to end up on the podium at the very least.
Ferrari has one of the most well-balanced cars and has an advantage vs. McLaren and Red Bull when it comes to driving over kerbs, of which there are many on this circuit.
Just two years ago in this race, we saw Sainz push Verstappen for a win, leading 17 laps and falling short by less than a second. In my mind, Sainz is a good value to back against this weekend in Montreal.
The Picks: Carlos Sainz Podium Finish (+275 at BetMGM, bet to +250) | Sainz to Win Race (+2500 at ESPN BET or bet365, bet to +2200)
Buy Low on Perez
While I may be lower on Red Bull this week compared to the other top teams, they will firmly be in the top three at minimum. Mercedes is sticking around as the fourth-best team on the grid lately, but they have struggled with a high amount of drag, and this circuit likely isn’t suited for them.
Perez is in the midst of a cold streak, but with the power of this Red Bull behind him, I think that his odds in this matchup are too short.
Perez should be able to be faster than Russell in normal conditions, and while the weather throws a potential wrench into this, I still like backing Perez at this price.
The Pick: Sergio Perez over George Russell (-150 at BetMGM, bet to -165)
Tsunoda Points Finish
Yuki Tsunoda and RB have been one of the most consistent teams throughout the season. After a slow start, Tsunoda has finished in the points in each of the last five races that he has finished, with one DNF mixed in due to a crash.
In two attempts in Canada, Tsunoda has crashed and finished 14th, so it’s not a great track for him, but I think that this RB team will be the best in the mid-pack this week and could be faster than a team like Aston Martin as well, giving Tsunoda a great chance at yet another points finish.
At -135 I feel good about backing Tsunoda in Montreal this weekend to finish in the top 10 and potentially even higher.
