In perhaps the most unsurprising result of the season, Max Verstappen took pole in his home race and went on to win, his second consecutive victory following the summer break.
Last week's Dutch Grand Prix wasn’t without controversy, though, as Ferrari stumbled in the strategy department once again while Lewis Hamilton vocally expressed his displeasure with his Mercedes team for their handling of two safety car situations.
As for our bets, it was a 1-2 outcome. George Russell came through in a matchup with Carlos Sainz for our lone victory while our Valtteri Bottas points finish and the 10+ second race winning margin bets failed to cash.
Now, teams head to Italy for the second race in the country of the season at Monza (9 a.m. ET, ESPN), and I’ve identified a new trio of bets. So, without further delay, let’s get right to the picks.
F1 Picks for Italian Grand Prix
*Odds as of Thursday
Lando Norris Top-Six Finish (+150)
Across the past two F1 seasons, Lando Norris has excelled at both Monza and the correlative circuits.
In last year’s Italian Grand Prix, the lead McLaren driver came home P2 behind teammate Daniel Ricciardo. Plus, in this season’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola, Norris posted a P3 finish after qualifying P3 before dropping to P5 after the sprint race.
That result represented Norris’ second consecutive P3 finish at Imola. Just across his last five races at Imola and Monza, Norris has registered a top-six finish in four and has never posted a finish worse than P8.
Further, in three other races at correlative circuits this season – Australia, Monaco and Hungary – Norris has crossed the line P6 or better in two and has finished no worse than P7 in any of those three.
Based on those trends, I’ll back Norris for a top-six finish at +150 at BetMGM, and I'd bet it to +125.
I'll also sprinkle and make a small bet on Norris to score a podium finish, which is +2200 at FanDuel.
Sebastian Vettel Points Finish (+150)
Sebastian Vettel was a disappointing P14 in the Netherlands last week, but I expect a stronger finish for him in Italy.
Prior to the Dutch Grand Prix, Vettel posted points finish in two of his last three and three of his last five races. Plus, though he posted a DNF in the first correlative race of the season in Australia, Vettel has done well at other correlative tracks. At Imola, he crossed the line P8 and followed that up with a P10 in Monaco and P10 in Hungary.
Expand the sample to include all the correlative races last season with Aston Martin, and prospective bettors will find Vettel has managed a points finish in four of his last seven grands prix at qualifying circuits.
If there’s one concern to be had here, it’s that Vettel hasn’t qualified extremely well of late, but I’m willing to buy low in the hopes of getting a good price at a track where he (should) excel. Play the Aston Martin driver at +150 at BetMGM and up to +140 for a points finish.
Race Winner Without Verstappen: Sergio Perez (+400)
Charles Leclerc is understandably favored in this market, but Perez presents the best combination of results and betting value.
At the four correlative circuits this season – Australia, Imola, Monaco and Hungary – Perez has recorded a win, two P2 finishes and a P5. Plus, though he was P5 at last year’s Italian Grand Prix, he was only a spot behind Leclerc in what was easily an inferior car to this season’s Red Bull model.
Plus, even if you consider the season as a whole, Perez has proven on Leclerc’s level. In the nine races in which they’ve both finished, Perez has a 5-4 advantage in terms of finishing position.
Even if you include the races where either driver posted a DNF, Perez still owns an 8-7 head-to-head advantage over Leclerc.
Maybe there’s a chance Ferrari resolves its myriad issues in time to do well at its home race, but I’m not willing to bet on that at +125. Take Perez at +400 and anything better than +350 for this market.
