Formula 1 is back (again)!
The summer break has concluded, and drivers are back this weekend for the first of nine remaining races to close out the 2022 season. The first of that set comes in Belgium, where world championship leader Max Verstappen (+100) finds himself a consensus favorite to win Sunday's race (ESPN, 9 a.m. ET).
Afterward, there’s a sizable drop-off to Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (+300) while Lewis Hamilton (+400) rounds out the top three on the odds board.
With that established, let’s move on to my three best bets for the Belgian Grand Prix.
F1 Picks for Hungarian Grand Prix
*Odds as of Wednesday
Esteban Ocon (+225) over Fernando Alonso
All respect to Fernando Alonso, but this price at FanDuel on Esteban Ocon is absolutely crazy, especially considering Alonso is on his way out of Alpine.
Beyond that fact, though, I rate these drivers pretty close as they enter this race. In three races at correlative tracks this season – Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Baku – Ocon bested his teammate in both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and finished only three spots behind in Baku. Expand the sample to include last season’s correlative races, and Ocon extends his advantage to a 4-2 gap.
Additionally, though I’m not emphasizing last year’s Belgian Grand Prix a ton, it’s worth noting that Ocon qualified ahead of his teammate before rain forced an end to the race after only two laps.
Although Alonso has a 2-1 head-to-head advantage in the three races prior to the summer break, it’s not as if he’s blowing away his teammate to justify a -310 price. In his two head-to-head victories, Alonso outpaced his teammate by a combined three spots.
For all those reasons, I’ll play Ocon at anything better than +140 to finish ahead of his teammate in Spa.
Pierre Gasly (-115) over Kevin Magnussen
There are some good reasons I like this Pierre Gasly over Kevin Magnussen bet at BetMGM.
Save for a DNF in the opening race, Gasly has posted some solid finishes at other correlative tracks.
In Saudi Arabia, the lead AlphaTauri driver finished P8 after qualifying P9. Then, in Baku, Gasly managed a P5 finish after qualifying in P6. Last season, in those three correlative races, Gasly managed finishes of DNF (Bahrain), P3 (Baku) and P6 (Saudi Arabia).
As for Magnussen, he managed a P7 finish at Bahrain this campaign and followed it up with a P9 in Saudi Arabia. Then, in Baku, he posted a DNF. But, in his last two races before the summer break, Magnussen managed to post a DNF to pair with a P16.
In terms of their qualifying outputs, Gasly has posted a superior in two of three races at correlative tracks.
Furthermore, Gasly owns a healthy advantage over Magnussen in races in which they both finish. In seven such races, Gasly has outpaced Magnussen's Haas in five.
Max Verstappen/Lewis Hamilton Both on Podium (+125)
Verstappen’s record at correlative tracks is slightly flawed given his DNF at Bahrain, but he feels like a safe bet to be on the podium.
Not only did he qualify on pole last year at Spa, but the lead Red Bull Racing driver has now posted three consecutive podium finishes and at least a podium in nine of his past 10. Add in the summer break element, and I expect there’s little that could surprise the Constructors Championship leaders to the tune of a non-podium finish.
Then there’s seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton. The lead Mercedes driver has now posted five consecutive podiums heading into the summer break and was at least P4 in two of three grand prix races at correlative circuits.
Furthermore, Hamilton owns an excellent record at past Belgian races. In just his past seven grand prix races at Spa, Hamilton has finished on the podium in all seven to pair with three wins.
For those reasons, back this prop, which was available at +125 at BetMGM at the time of writing, at anything better than +105.
