Even with a grid penalty for a power unit replacement, Max Verstappen still managed to climb all the way up the board to win the Belgian Grand Prix last week.
In the first race after the summer break, Verstappen started in P14, was P8 after the opening lap, and secured the victory by a whopping 17.8 seconds.
As for our bets, it was a 1-2 output. Our lone victory came as a result of Pierre Gasly defeating Kevin Magnussen in a matchup, but we weren’t as lucky with Esteban Ocon over Fernando Alonso. Finally, a Lewis Hamilton DNF rendered Verstappen/Hamilton both on the podium a loser, as well. Those results move our season-long record to 24-18 (+8.25 units).
Now, we head to the Netherlands for the Dutch Grand Prix on Sunday (9 a.m. ET on ESPN+) as we get ready to present a new trio of plays. So, without any further delay, here are my best bets for the Dutch Grand Prix.
F1 Picks for Dutch Grand Prix
*Odds as of Thursday
George Russell (+110) over Carlos Sainz
These two drivers have no room between them in terms of their head-to-head matchup this season – seven wins apiece – but this track should favor George Russell over Carlos Sainz.
In three races at correlative circuits this season – Spain, Canada and Austria – the secondary Mercedes driver has never finished worse than P4, and he owns one podium in Spain. Additionally, in those three races, Russell has finished ahead of Sainz’s Ferrari in two.
Largely, though, my lack of confidence in Sainz rests as a result of his sporadic performances at these tracks. Although he finished P2 in Canada, he was P4 in Spain – one spot behind Russell – and posted a DNF in Austria.
Plus, just in the past four grand prix overall, the Brit has placed his Mercedes ahead of Sainz in three races, with last week’s Belgian Grand Prix the lone exception.
But, at a track that rewards straight-line speed over speed through the corners, expect Russell to finish ahead for the fourth time in the five races, which is +110 at BetMGM.
Race Winning Margin: 10 or More Seconds (+120)
I want to get involved with Verstappen somehow this week, but -175 is too rich for my blood. However, I think I’ve managed to find a creative way to back the Dutchman.
Despite the winner securing victory by this margin only once in three grands prix at correlative circuits, five of Verstappen’s nine wins this season – or 56 percent – have come by this margin. Plus, one of those failures at a correlative circuit came because Verstappen and Leclerc were virtually neck-and-neck. In that race in Austria, the distance from P1 to P3 was 41 seconds.
Additionally, if you look at the five races last season at correlative circuits – Netherlands, Spain, Austria, Mexico and Brazil – all five were decided by at least 10.4 seconds with four decided by at least 15 seconds.
With Verstappen’s Red Bull carrying a fresh power unit, I expect his advantage over the field to increase exponentially. Based on the aforementioned metrics, I’ll back this prop, which is currently +120 at FanDuel, at anything better than -105.
Valtteri Bottas Points Finish (+130)
Valtteri Bottas hasn’t earned points in any of the previous fives grand prix, but I believe this is a perfect buy-low spot on the Fin.
In three races this season at the aforementioned correlative circuits, Bottas has never crossed the line worse than P11, and he owns two points finishes in those three races. Additionally, the lead Alfa Romeo driver has gained race positions in two of those three races and has posted a top-eight fast lap time in all three of those races.
Plus, though Bottas hasn’t posted good finishes in the actual race of late, his qualifying marks have been steady. Save for a P20 qualifying finish last week in Belgium, Bottas has qualified no worse than P13 in any of the four races culminating in the summer break.
Lastly, though he’s in a markedly different car this year, I still value Bottas’ experience at this track. Last year with Mercedes, he crossed the line P3 after qualifying in that same spot.
For those reasons, I’ll back Bottas, who's currently +130 at FanDuel, up to +115 for a points finish this weekend in the Netherlands.
