The gap week has passed, and now Formula 1 is set to return this weekend for the French Grand Prix.
Nearly two weeks ago, Charles Leclerc held off Max Verstappen in Austria – his first win starting anywhere but the pole – to eat into Verstappen’s advantage in the F1 World Championship race. Elsewhere, Lewis Hamilton captured his third consecutive podium while Haas produced his second consecutive double points finish.
In terms of our bets, it was a disappointing 1-2 week. Esteben Ocon finished inside the points to cash that ticket for us, but an early George Russell/Sergio Perez collision doomed both our “Red Bull double podium” and “Russell over Hamilton” plays.
Those results move our season-long record to 19-14 (+7.25 units) as we deliver a trio of plays for the French Grand Prix on Sunday, July 24 (9 a.m. ET, ESPN). Before those plays, here are the correlated tracks I used for analysis purposes:
- Great Britain
- Miami
- Abu Dhabi
With that in mind, let’s dive into my best bets for this week.
F1 Picks for French Grand Prix
*Odds as of Thursday evening
Pierre Gasly Points Finish (+160)
Recent GPs have proven rough for the lead AlphaTauri driver, but I believe it’s a good time to buy low.
This is Gasly’s home grand prix, and he has proven quite adept historically at earning points in France. Last year, Gasly posted a P7 finish at Circuit Paul Ricard two years after grabbing the final points slot (P10). Both races also saw Gasly qualify inside the points.
Further, Gasly has experienced relative success this season at correlated tracks. Although he posted a DNF in Miami – the first correlative circuit – he managed to qualify P7. Additionally, though he posted another DNF in Great Britain – another correlative circuit – Gasly qualified P11, only a spot outside the points.
Finally, last season’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix saw Gasly qualify P6 and post a P7 finish at a track that also correlates with France.
For those reasons, back Gasly to finish P10 or better down to +135 (BetMGM).
Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish (+115)
As mentioned earlier, Hamilton is surging entering the French Grand Prix, posting three consecutive P3 finishes.
Plus, just in the past four races, Hamilton has recorded four finishes of P4 or better after registering only two such finishes in his first seven races of the season. And while the value may be gone for some, I still believe there’s a case to be made for Hamilton’s strong run continuing in France.
This season, Hamilton has a great record at circuits that correlate with France. He finished P6 in Miami – after qualifying P6 – and P3 in Great Britain after starting P5. Plus, perhaps one of Hamilton’s best tracks is Abu Dhabi, another correlative track. There, he owns six consecutive podium finishes, including three outright victories.
The seven-time world champion also owns a great record in France – no worse than P2 in his last three grand prix at the Circuit Paul Ricard – that includes a win from pole position in 2019.
Based on those trends, I’ll back Hamilton at the current +115 (FanDuel) and like him at +100 or better for his fourth straight podium finish.
Red Bull to Win the Race (-110)
I’m a huge fan of this bet because you’re essentially getting Max Verstappen at a coin-flip price, but I also believe France serves as a good buy-low spot on Sergio Perez.
Although the Monaco Grand Prix winner has posted two DNFs in his past three starts, there’s some reason for optimism that Perez can win this race. In between those two DNFs at Austria and Canada, Perez recorded a P2 finish at Silverstone. Additionally, the secondary Red Bull driver crossed the line P4 in Miami. In both of those cases, he started P4.
Plus, in his first French Grand Prix with Red Bull last season, Perez managed a P3 finish while simultaneously grabbing the second-fastest lap – behind only Verstappen. Those trends lead me to believe Perez should be shorter than his current +900 price to win the race.
However, even if we’re wrong about Perez, there’s still a good chance Verstappen cashes this ticket. Sheer dumb luck was the only reason he failed to win at Silverstone five races after he won in Miami. Plus, Verstappen is the defending champion in France, so we know he has a penchant for this circuit.
As a result, I like this bet at the current -110 (BetMGM) and down to -125.
